Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 Another look... straight up weather porn 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 HRRR just looks weird for tomorrow. Here are some hourly consecutive soundings ahead of the developing MCS in the current day 2 high-end enhanced risk. I really don't think these soundings would support a high-end enhanced risk. I suspect HRRR is over-mixing the warm sector, especially considering the strength of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 (edited) Setting the bar real high for MCS season, but given the prevalence of robust EMLs (see past 6 weeks) and the very warm GoM, the next 2 months should be filled with plenty of crazy MCSs. This one is special because of how insanely well-defined the MCV was prior to the MCS development. That led to this massive MCS/MCV signature. Edited May 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 Wonder how much tornado threat there still is if any, the bottom of the MCS looks like there may be a supercell, looks suspicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 Discrete supercell west of Rochester as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 Yeah looks like the semi-discrete supercell/embedded supercell threat transferred south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 Shoutout to central Minnesota for giving us the most ridiculous sounding so far this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Shoutout to central Minnesota for giving us the most ridiculous sounding so far this year The HRRR says sure why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: The HRRR says sure why not oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 12, 2022 Author Share Posted May 12, 2022 Tomorrow is certainly looking like a pretty big day up north, even if there's little tornado activity the wind threat will be pretty legit. Probably will be a decent QLCS spin up producer as well. Looking beyond that, the Day 3 slight risk looks decent, should see some isolated severe potential. That will be my last day here in Norman before heading back home for the summer so we'll see if we can get some action before heading back. Beyond that, we could see some potential MCS setups here over the weekend and into the early parts of next week, so while there's nothing big coming our way, I'm not as pessimistic for this upcoming week as I was a few days ago. Doesn't take much for a small MCS setup to turn into an enhanced risk this time of year so we'll see if we can cash in next week. As long as we don't get anything on 5/19... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 12, 2022 Author Share Posted May 12, 2022 (edited) No... Bad GFS. Bad At least it's capped (can't believe I'm saying that lol) Edited May 12, 2022 by OKwx_2001 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 Gravity waves are cool 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 I need to miss this bullshit later today. A…..I don’t want to deal with hail and wind B…..I certainly don’t need the rain. Just starting to dry out enough to think about planting this weekend. In spots. They keep saying James River Valley and East for the storms. Well, I’m 4 miles west of the James River, so I’m holding them to it! (Technically I’m in the the JR valley, but shhhhh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 9 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said: No... Bad GFS. Bad At least it's capped (can't believe I'm saying that lol) Quote As long as we don't get anything on 5/19... You almost spoke too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 Moderate risk added for today. Can’t post images right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 12, 2022 Author Share Posted May 12, 2022 Moderate risk expanded a bit west, and a 10 hatched tornado area has been added Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 (edited) Negative tilt has begun Upper 60/lower 70 dew points just ahead of the low track/negative tilt. Recipe for severe weather Edited May 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 SPC has a slight risk for southern Mississippi for a backdoor cold front. Wonder if that's ever happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 (edited) Off to a quick start. Not surprised. Warned for 70 mph winds, 1.25" hail, moving at 55 mph Edited May 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 Amazingly well-defined outflow boundary/warm front in Minnesota. Tornado watch coming. "Explosive supercell development", "widespread damaging winds Mesoscale Discussion 0738 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Areas affected...much of eastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 121947Z - 122215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms will develop along the fronts in South Dakota later today, and move into eastern South Dakota from the southwest. Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are anticipated. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front approaching central SD and extending into the NE Panhandle. Meanwhile, a warm front extends from near Pierre to south of Aberdeen to Brookings. Visible imagery shows substantial towering CU along and south of this area where temperatures are rising and MLCAPE is over 3000 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates are very steep, and suggest explosive supercell development will be possible from central into northeast SD. Low-level shear favors tornadoes near the warm front, and a strong tornado will be possible. To the south, a line of severe storms is quickly taking shape over central NE, and will rapidly move north/northeast across the MO River after 21Z. Significant wind damage will be possible into southeast SD through evening as storms expand into the most unstable air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 (edited) If the standards weren't so damn high for 60% wind, today would be a great day for it. But I respect the desire to preserve it for the most serious, high-confidence high-end days. I think that's the better move here. Edited May 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 (edited) WHEW Edited May 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 I spy a 6000 SB-CAPE gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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