Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, SoDakFarmer said: And we’re all going to get battered with 80mph wind driven baseball sized hail? Or just Minnesota and Wisconsin :) 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: One of the cities I did was Siuox Falls so that's pretty close! Was running out of time by the time I got to the technical discussion so I basically just said with the combination of instability/shear, the negative tilt, and the sub-990mb low, severe storms are expected and they could possibly be widespread. I didn't want to flat-out say that without "possibly" because I didn't want to jump ahead of SPC on what was basically a work tryout, but on here I would say that without the "possibly"... it's gonna be a busy day. I added that quick growth into a MCS should materialize due to strong forcing on the cold front. However... I'd say E SD is in the early stages of the event so I'm expecting E SD/W MN to have a discrete/semi-discrete supercell threat for a bit. Then it turns into a wind-driven hail event. Don't mess with a sub-990mb low with a negative tilt in mid-ish May. IMO, it has some 12/15/21 vibes. Obviously can't expect something of that magnitude, but just the whole setup reminds me of it. As expected, HRRR begins with discrete convection but increases in coverage from 23z to 0z. Wouldn't want to be under any of those cells Edited May 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 I've took a look on the Mesoanalysis, CAPE levels were just extreme, over 6000 to 6500. I've never seen CAPE levels this high before. I'm afraid that this is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode, and once it does, it's not going to end well . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 (edited) This is terrifying! https://www.wfla.com/news/highlands-county/it-was-so-bright-lightning-strikes-outside-sebring-home-causing-explosion/ https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/doorbell-camera-catches-lightning-strike-launch-explosion-outside-florida-home/vi-AAX6Ggt Edited May 11, 2022 by Iceresistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2022 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I've took a look on the Mesoanalysis, CAPE levels were just extreme, over 6000 to 6500. I've never seen CAPE levels this high before. I'm afraid that this is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode, and once it does, it's not going to end well . . . 6000+ cape does happen at least several times per year, usually in the summer, but rarely does it happen when convection is forced. When it does, it's usually somewhere in derecho alley/corn belt... the Dakotas, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana, western Ohio. This is an observed sounding from western Ohio just ahead of a high-end derecho almost 10 years ago I don't have an adjective good enough to describe the environment on the warm front here. Extreme SE ND Central-ish MN along the warm front Edited May 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 some places up in Minnesota that have a 39 dew point right now could get a major storm with huge CAPE feeding it tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 Late May and early June could get quite active. The ensembles are hinting at that at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Late May and early June could get quite active. The ensembles are hinting at that at least I was watching Reed Timmer's severe weather update this morning. I've gotten into watching a few Youtube videos on such things. He said that the upper level low near South Carolina right now is spreading lower moisture to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Maybe it could take some time to recharge that area with deep moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 Extremely unstable but capped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Chinook said: I was watching Reed Timmer's severe weather update this morning. I've gotten into watching a few Youtube videos on such things. He said that the upper level low near South Carolina right now is spreading lower moisture to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Maybe it could take some time to recharge that area with deep moisture. Won't take much to recover in late May and June imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2022 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Chinook said: I was watching Reed Timmer's severe weather update this morning. I've gotten into watching a few Youtube videos on such things. He said that the upper level low near South Carolina right now is spreading lower moisture to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Maybe it could take some time to recharge that area with deep moisture. Yeah a SPC forecaster tweeted it'll take some time for sufficient moisture to return because of that retrograding trough. IIRC he was thinking seasonable severe weather may be back for the last week of May. Also, to be fair, that was almost a week ago. Edited May 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 (edited) For tomorrow, convection allowing models have some agreement but not perfect agreement on heavier thunderstorms to develop in the Sioux City/Sioux Falls area. Also a cluster of storms is likely at the warm front in the northern half of Minnesota. In fact, some models really show some evidence of a MCV in northwest Iowa, but I don't know if that makes too much of a difference. Basically anything could be severe around there. Edited May 11, 2022 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 This could have huge implications on the severe weather chances. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 3 hours ago, Iceresistance said: This could have huge implications on the severe weather chances. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelvin_wave VERY cool stuff!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 11, 2022 Author Share Posted May 11, 2022 Oh hello there Goes to show how even the smallest of setups can turn into a slight risk. Gotta love May 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 46 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Oh hello there Goes to show how even the smallest of setups can turn into a slight risk. Gotta love May The Monstrous CCKW is going to arrive here next week, it could greatly enhance the severe weather potential in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 11, 2022 Author Share Posted May 11, 2022 49 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The Monstrous CCKW is going to arrive here next week, it could greatly enhance the severe weather potential in that timeframe. That would affect next week though, this is for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 11, 2022 Author Share Posted May 11, 2022 Tornado watch up. 10% tor area for today, could get dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 11, 2022 Author Share Posted May 11, 2022 45% unhatched wind area added for tomorrow. We'll probably see a wind driven moderate tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 28 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: That would affect next week though, this is for Friday Either way, the next 2 weeks starting next week is going to be really active if the CCKW comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 Big Joe B is concerned for next week too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: The Monstrous CCKW is going to arrive here next week, it could greatly enhance the severe weather potential in that timeframe. There's often some lag time between CCKW and when active weather it present so we may not see it's affects until a few days after it passes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2022 Any cell that hits the outflow boundary sitting on the radar site should see some rapid changes. As such, SPC just highlighted this area for tornado potential. The issue IMO is that storm motion is almost perpendicular to the orientation of the outflow boundary. If a cell can turn right and go more perpendicular to the IA/MN border, it's bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2022 Even this relatively innocent looking cell might have a tornado or two in it that developed as it approached the outflow boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 If a tornado plays it's cards right today it could become a tiny tri-state tornado lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2022 Easy to see where the future MCS is gonna go. Should be a nasty one once it gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.d854dd115fa9dfd0656f7d1835c449ce.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now