Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 9, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 9, 2022 Nice and discrete-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 9, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 9, 2022 Nice dryline. Rare quadruple point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 The northern supercell may be discrete enough to try and produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 10, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 10, 2022 (edited) Looks ambiguous on radar but weather spotters allegedly have eyes on a tornado A squall is developing now that the cold front has eaten the dryline. Best shear is in the north half of the line, so that's where the best tornado threat will be. Edited May 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Currently in Natchitoches, LA (Sounds more like "Nacho Cheese" 😆) Got up to 95°F today on I-49 in Alexandria, LA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 10, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 10, 2022 Hour 48 of HRRR so we know how serious to take it, but damn. Obviously a clown sounding but it's fun so why not? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 10, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 10, 2022 (edited) The next 3 days really favors the Upper Midwest. Went straight from May climatology to late June/July climatology in a couple weeks. Absolutely massive eastern ridge with a retrograding trough undercutting it is to blame. Very unusual pattern. Gonna take some time for the Gulf to recover from that retrograding trough but it's late May so it'll happen pretty quickly. Edited May 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 (edited) I saw this on Twitter with respect to the 5/9/2016 tornado outbreak which had the Katie tornado and also this large EF-3 at Sulphur Oklahoma (RAXpol is a mobile doppler) I was just thinking--- it has been 10 years since dual-pol capabilities were added to the GRLevel3 program. (dual-pol was installed at different times for different radars in 2012) Edited May 10, 2022 by Chinook 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 10, 2022 Author Share Posted May 10, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Chinook said: I saw this on Twitter with respect to the 5/9/2016 tornado outbreak which had the Katie tornado and also this large EF-3 at Sulphur Oklahoma (RAXpol is a mobile doppler) I was just thinking--- it has been 10 years since dual-pol capabilities were added to the GRLevel3 program. (dual-pol was installed at different times for different radars in 2012) The Sulphur tornado (the one pictured here) was almost certainly EF5 strength at some point IMO. Some of the radar indicated winds were well over 200mph. Thankfully it didn't hit anything to get that rating, or it would have been catastrophic if it hit one of those towns. That was a crazy day for sure, and haven't seen an outbreak that big/intense in OK since. Edited May 10, 2022 by OKwx_2001 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 7 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Currently in Natchitoches, LA (Sounds more like "Nacho Cheese" 😆) Got up to 95°F today on I-49 in Alexandria, LA Cal Naughton Jr.: Oh man, it was so classy, we had a Stix cover band and a nacho fountain. Check it, it was a nacho fountain with six kinds of cheese on it. Ricky Bobby: Liquid cheese? Like, it cascaded down? Cal Naughton Jr.: Yeah. Ricky: Are you serious? Cal Naughton Jr.: Oh man, amazing, six different kinds; Swiss, Havarti, what was the other one? Carly Naughton: Gouda. Cal Naughton Jr.: Cheddar, Gouda. Ricky Bobby: That is the greatest thing I ever heard of. Cal Naughton Jr.: Feeding buffet in front of it, it was awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Nothing looks to go linear tonight, which makes me think a more favorable semi-discrete/discrete mode could show itself tonight. Luckily looking at way less shear tonight, and therefore less of a strong tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Wisconsin area: Quote Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk of widely scattered thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes will increase between 19Z-21Z. A watch will likely be needed for parts of the area this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 tornado watch Quote The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Wisconsin and Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Crazy instability for early May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 10, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 10, 2022 (edited) Just spent 6 hours non-stop on a forecasting test for a company that I haven't even interviewed for yet. Had to do these 3 towns... one in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and South Dakota... for the next 5 days and do a technical discussion. What a time to have to do that. Edited May 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2022 Nasty wildfires in NE NM. Getting some pyrocumulus in the smoke plumes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 11, 2022 Author Share Posted May 11, 2022 Looks like the tornado threat up north never materialized, not much going on. Lots of action out west though, especially the TX panhandle. Not any tornado threat but there's some warnings for 80mph in there. Maybe these storms can make it a little further east than expected and we can get something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 (edited) It's kind of weird to see storm in the Texas Panhandle with quite low shear , but still enough CAPE to send high reflectivity and hailstones developing at 30000 ft. CAPE was up to 8500 J/kg near Enid Oklahoma on the 22z HRRR. You can click on a point on Pivotalweather with 8853 J/kg with the Sharppy sounding computation. Edited May 11, 2022 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Just spent 6 hours non-stop on a forecasting test for a company that I haven't even interviewed for yet. Had to do these 3 towns... one in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and South Dakota... for the next 5 days and do a technical discussion. What a time to have to do that. And we’re all going to get battered with 80mph wind driven baseball sized hail? Or just Minnesota and Wisconsin :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, SoDakFarmer said: And we’re all going to get battered with 80mph wind driven baseball sized hail? Or just Minnesota and Wisconsin :) definitely be paying attention to the Day-1 outlook when we get there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, SoDakFarmer said: And we’re all going to get battered with 80mph wind driven baseball sized hail? Or just Minnesota and Wisconsin :) One of the cities I did was Siuox Falls so that's pretty close! Was running out of time by the time I got to the technical discussion so I basically just said with the combination of instability/shear, the negative tilt, and the sub-990mb low, severe storms are expected and they could possibly be widespread. I didn't want to flat-out say that without "possibly" because I didn't want to jump ahead of SPC on what was basically a work tryout, but on here I would say that without the "possibly"... it's gonna be a busy day. I added that quick growth into a MCS should materialize due to strong forcing on the cold front. However... I'd say E SD is in the early stages of the event so I'm expecting E SD/W MN to have a discrete/semi-discrete supercell threat for a bit. Then it turns into a wind-driven hail event. Don't mess with a sub-990mb low with a negative tilt in mid-ish May. IMO, it has some 12/15/21 vibes. Obviously can't expect something of that magnitude, but just the whole setup reminds me of it. Edited May 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2022 (edited) I missed these soundings. Legit 6000+ sbcape profiles. Kinda early in the season for this but with all things considered, not surprised. I'm not saying we can expect 6000+ cape tomorrow or Thursday, but this is the kind of environment that's being advected north ahead of a soon-to-be negative tilt. Nasty combination is slowly piecing together before our eyes at such a slow pace Edited May 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I missed these soundings. Legit 6000+ sbcape profiles. Kinda early in the season for this but with all things considered, not surprised. I'm not saying we can expect 6000+ cape tomorrow or Thursday, but this is the kind of environment that's being advected north ahead of a soon-to-be negative tilt. Nasty combination is slowly piecing together before our eyes at such a slow pace It's only a matter of time before the 6000 CAPE shows itself in Late May, the GEFS is starting to pick it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 Pampa, TX has recorded a gust of 80 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 All of my Observations are now at the location below my username, I'm finally back home from the epic trip to Florida and back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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