May 7-28, 2022 | Severe Weather/MCS Sequence

[Central Illinois]

looks like the cells in Southwestern IL are trying to strengthen.

[snowlover2]

Holy shit it's pouring torrentially here now.

[junior]

6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Holy shit it's pouring torrentially here now.

0 to 100 real quick

[snowlover2]

2 minutes ago, junior said:

0 to 100 real quick

Just issued a severe warning on this cell.

[ClicheVortex2014]

ILN sounding shows you why we've been dealing with transient/cyclical supercells today. Directional shear is sufficient but effective shear was low-end of what's favorable.

 

While I was typing this out, a severe storm developed basically over Wilmington. So the above sounding went on to produce a severe storm just 90 mins later.

Edited May 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[junior]

Yea seeing that storm to my east with the inc. lightning strikes. Was a nice torrential rainfall earlier. 

[btbucks]

29 minutes ago, junior said:

Yea seeing that storm to my east with the inc. lightning strikes. Was a nice torrential rainfall earlier. 

I can see the lightning from my location.

Edited May 26, 2022 by btbucks

[NWOhioChaser]

Welp, let's see how much of this holds...light sprinkles now. Would be nice to get a good soaker in before next weeks heatwave.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Looks like a busy day tomorrow. Storm motion and flow looks good for some heavy rain training especially in the central third of Ohio

Edited May 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Still have a day 1 slight risk for wind, 2% tornado, and 5% hail. 5% hail is for the Midwest and the eastern half of the Southern US marginal/slight.

A very rare slight risk for the Pacific Northwest though. That's for discrete supercells capable of hail and wind.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1233 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2022  
  
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE  
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY  
OVER OHIO/EASTERN KENTUCKY, NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE FAR  
WESTERN CAROLINAS, AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON, SOUTHEASTERN  
WASHINGTON, AND IDAHO. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE  
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EVIDENT IN  
EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO  
DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS, A DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD  
FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  
RESPECTIVELY. 00 UTC RAOBS FROM ACROSS THESE REGIONS SAMPLED MODEST  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM), BUT A BROAD  
SWATH OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MEAN MIXING RATIOS BETWEEN 10-13 G/KG ACROSS  
THE REGION COUPLED WITH DIURNAL WARMING WILL SUPPORT ADEQUATE  
BUOYANCY FOR CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST, AN  
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TODAY.  
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE APPROACH OF A  
MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
   
..SOUTHEAST  
  
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY IS  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD  
ALONG THE GULF COAST, BUT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT  
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS AL INTO GA.  
ALTHOUGH MOIST PROFILES AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT  
BUOYANCY TO A DEGREE, MLCAPE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR INCREASINGLY  
ROBUST UPDRAFTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OFF  
THE BOUNDARY, AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING 850-700 MB FLOW, WILL SUPPORT  
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CELLS AND/OR ORGANIZED SEGMENTS ALONG THE  
FRONT. A SLIGHT RISK IS INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA INTO  
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH ORGANIZED  
SEGMENTS (AND AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT) APPEARS GREATEST.    
  
A DIFFUSE WEDGE FRONT, NOTED IN EARLY-MORNING OBSERVATIONS ACROSS  
THE CAROLINAS, IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONTAL ZONE  
THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
A FEW STRONGER, MORE ORGANIZED CELLS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT STORM MOTIONS  
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DESTRUCTIVE STORM  
INTERFERENCE MAY LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.  
   
..UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY  
  
BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVERLAID WITH A MID-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY. MODEST LOW TO  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY DESPITE 55-65 F DEWPOINTS  
ALREADY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ADEQUATE CAPE  
PROFILES TO UTILIZE THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF  
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION. THE ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW  
ORGANIZED CELLS AND/OR LINEAR SEGMENTS. NARROW CAPE PROFILES MAY  
LIMIT THE OVERALL HAIL POTENTIAL TO A DEGREE, BUT 30-40 KNOT FLOW  
WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL.  
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE  
COVERAGE (AND HENCE INCREASED WIND THREAT) WILL RESIDE ACROSS  
NORTHEAST KY INTO OH AND FAR WESTERN WV NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE  
UPPER JET.  
   
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
  
00 UTC SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAVE SHOWN A  
GENERAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS  
DEEP-LAYER ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. ADDITIONALLY, MID-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES HAVE STEEPENED AS BROAD, BUT WEAK, ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE  
REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE DAY AND, WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, SHOULD  
SUPPORT AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE BUOYANCY MAY  
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS OFF AN INITIATING COLD  
FRONT WILL PROMOTE DISCRETE CELLS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW  
SUPERCELLS, FROM NORTHEAST OR INTO NORTHERN ID. LARGE HAIL APPEARS  
PROBABLE WITH THESE CELLS, AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH A  
1-2 KM DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
WIND GUSTS.  

 

Edited May 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

Slight risk now covers most of IN and the NE half of IL.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Some rotation SW of Cincy

[ClicheVortex2014]

Bit of a bookend vortex entering Butler county. Not sure if this is enough for any kind of warning

[ClicheVortex2014]

8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Bit of a bookend vortex entering Butler county. Not sure if this is enough for any kind of warning

At the exact same time as this screenshot:

 

Edited May 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Got my interview with NWS Memphis in 3 hours. Would be funny if I have to reschedule due to power outage. Doubt it’ll maintain strength by the time it reaches me

Edited May 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Certainly some broad rotation going on in Butler county

Edited May 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Great resolution of a short-ish-lived bow echo in NKY courtesy of CVG TDWR

[ClicheVortex2014]

Special 18z ILN sounding. Pathetic directional shear but sufficient speed shear. Opposite of yesterday.

Edited May 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Now that's some low-level instability. Damn.

[ClicheVortex2014]

This ambiguous looking line saw Xenia and knew exactly what to do. Granted, it’s gonna stay east of Xenia… but storms sure do love (or hate) that town.

Edited May 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

Oh wow

 

[Neoncyclone]

2 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Oh wow

 

Two more tornado warnings in Kentucky as well

[Neoncyclone]

May have been a brief tornado

Edited May 26, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Neoncyclone]

Confirmed

 

Edited May 26, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Bman10]