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May 7-28, 2022 | Severe Weather/MCS Sequence


ElectricStorm

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  • Meteorologist
7 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I totally forgot how to configure GRLeve3 to get to get data from Iowa State Mesonet web site. Any ideas?

I only have GR2 so if it's different from that then I have no idea. Might be easy to Google

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It looks like GRLevel3 feed is just broken for me right now. My severe weather pick was Stephenville. That area just looks like it is getting generic storms right now. Useless fact: before NEXRAD got installed in the 90's, Stephenville had the radar that served the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

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The tornadic cell west of San Angelo is no longer tornadic and appears to be bowing out.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
716 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Sterling County in west central Texas...
  Central Tom Green County in west central Texas...
  Eastern Irion County in west central Texas...

* Until 800 PM CDT.

* At 716 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles northwest
  of Arden, moving southeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
           considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Arden around 730 PM CDT.
  San Angelo State Park, O.c. Fisher Reservoir and Tankersley around
  745 PM CDT.
  Lake Nasworthy and Twin Buttes Reservoir around 750 PM CDT.
  Goodfellow Air Force Base around 755 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Us-
87 Near The Coke-Tom Green County Line and Us-67 Near The Irion-
Tom Green County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay
away from windows.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3148 10113 3178 10091 3174 10082 3170 10083
      3170 10074 3149 10032 3108 10078 3109 10079
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 297DEG 39KT 3157 10088

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

 

 

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Broad day 1 marginal risk with a broad 2% tornado.

image.png.b10510cfd9d898e92378621eebeb0c96.png

image.png.fffbd92363bbc51659ac1657cbb23361.png

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1228 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2022  
  
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS  
AND NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO THE MIDWEST...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY FROM THE  
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
SOUTHEAST, MIDWEST, AND OHIO VALLEY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO  
DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT MEANDERS EAST TOWARDS THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY  
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD WARM FRONTAL ZONE  
ACROSS THE MIDDLE U.S. WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE  
DAY, ALLOWING FOR A POLEWARD RETURN OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER  
MOISTURE INTO THE MIDWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN MCS, CURRENTLY  
DRAPED FROM EASTERN TO SOUTHERN TX, WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE TX AND  
LA GULF COAST BY 12 UTC. THIS FEATURE (OR ITS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW) IS  
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION BY AROUND PEAK  
DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL ACT AS AN IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MID-MS RIVER  
VALLEY AND THE MIDWEST, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITHIN A  
BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.   
   
..NORTHERN GULF COAST  
  
THE ONGOING MCS ACROSS TX WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER MS RIVER  
VALLEY REGION BY AROUND MID-DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS  
FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF RESIDUAL  
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY  
MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-JET REGION WILL SUPPORT  
25-35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED  
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ALONG  
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST (AND AREAS WELL INLAND) IS UNCERTAIN.  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE  
LIFTING THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS MAY WEAKEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES VIA CONVECTIVE  
OVERTURNING AND MUTE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES  
REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A LIMITED SIGNAL FOR 1000+ J/KG SBCAPE  
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS  
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT APPEARS PROBABLE DURING  
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN TX INTO SOUTHERN LA,  
BUT BUOYANCY CONCERNS LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROPENSITY FOR  
SEVERE/ORGANIZED CONVECTION.   
   
..MIDWEST  
  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A BROAD ZONE  
OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND WITHIN A WARM  
ADVECTION REGIME. WHILE THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF 60-65 F DEWPOINTS  
WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION, POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT  
CAPE PROFILES. 40-50 KNOT MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SOUTH TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR  
TO COMPENSATE FOR THE THERMODYNAMIC WEAKNESS TO A DEGREE; A FEW  
CELLS MAY SHOW PERIODIC ORGANIZATION AND POSE A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND  
THREAT. MORE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE  
LOW OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY AND WITHIN THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL  
ZONE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH EFFECTIVE HELICITY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK  
TORNADO THREAT.  

 

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Slight risk for tornadoes added for N IN/NW OH/NE IL

For us in Dayton, it technically includes us. The 5% reaches into NW Montgomery county and it extends 25 miles past that, per SPC. 

Damn right I'm grasping at straws

I have no expectations for today though

image.png.2c6abd1c9930c21cd3657335404c4cc9.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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14 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Nice view from CVG TDWR. Looks like it just produced a microburst of some strength.

 

F700A31B-870E-41E5-AB40-60762B478CAC.gif

That classic supercell structure quickly collapsed. But lightning activity has apparently increased which can indicate strengthening convection so that’s interesting

B30705DD-9B27-4659-9E51-D79E354612CE.gif

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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53 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

May be sub-severe but looks like the Cincy cell has its hook back

 

D203F228-0133-49A8-9979-F444A0865F5E.png

Cycled a couple times now but still going and I might get a view of it soon

image.thumb.png.bc4959251a4b7132a9876ac77c53755e.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Another possible sub-severe mini-supercell to my west

image.thumb.png.2166a75afb8cf074374b957522564f53.png

Went outside to look to see if I could see anything and there was this kid riding his bike and he saw me looking at the sky and he got off his bike and looked where I was looking and before I went back inside he was off his bike walking. I think I scared him

Edit: can't see anything interesting, don't think I'll be able to if I don't see it now.

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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