May 7-28, 2022 | Severe Weather/MCS Sequence

[Neoncyclone]

Watch till the end, you can see the satellites forming and rotating around, easy to see because of the dust. They were beefy satellite too WOW. If this hit a populated area it would have been a really big mess.

Edited May 24, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[ClicheVortex2014]

11 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Watch till the end, you can see the satellites forming and rotating around, easy to see because of the dust. They were beefy satellite too WOW. If this hit a populated area it would have been a really big mess.

Looked hellish at times. It'll probably be rated an EF1 or 2 based on various objects it hit, but I didn't see a single obvious debris signature the entire time. Wish tornadoes were more like this, but it sucks to not *really* know how strong it was

[ClicheVortex2014]

Decent slight risk/5% tor for tomorrow. HRRR shows a nearly exclusively linear event but maybe some embedded supercells.

Based on GFS/NAM/HRRR, I doubt we'll see a day 2 slight in the Midwest yet

[ClicheVortex2014]

Day 2 marginal... 2% tornado in IL. Doesn't sound particularly impressive

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2022  
  
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS  
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND  
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FROM THE TEXAS  
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND OHIO  
VALLEY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL MEANDER  
EASTWARD TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD.  A BELT OF STRONG  
500 MB FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH  
AND NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A WEAK SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MO  
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND BECOME AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE MS  
VALLEY BY LATE EVENING.  A COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH  
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  
   
..TX COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY  
  
AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING  
FROM THE MIDDLE COASTAL PLAIN NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF EAST TX  
AND LA.  A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 70S DEG F DEWPOINTS  
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY DESPITE MOVING THROUGH THE  
REGION DURING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  LARGER  
EMBEDDED CORES AND/OR SURGES OR BOWS IN THE SQUALL LINE WILL  
POTENTIALLY YIELD A RISK FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE.  
MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND  
SIMULATED INTENSITY OF THE SQUALL LINE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS TX  
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  ONCE THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES SOUTH AND  
EAST OF THE COAST, THE RISK FOR SEVERE WILL END.  
  
FARTHER EAST, OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTIVE LINE MAY SERVE AS A  
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AS  
THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  MULTICELLS WILL  
BE THE PREFERRED STORM MODE WITH ISOLATED WIND/HAIL BEING POSSIBLE  
WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN  
DURING THE EVENING.  
   
..MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY  
  
TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SQUALL LINE OVER THE TX/LA/AR  
VICINITY, A MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE DURING  
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS  
VALLEY.  STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING  
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.   
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL LIMITING EFFECTS  
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH.   
NONETHELESS, IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL  
OCCUR AS A 500-MB SPEED MAX APPROACHES AND OVERSPREADS THE MIDDLE MS  
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH ASSOCIATED HAZARDS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL  
LIKELY PEAK IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING.  
  
FARTHER EAST, MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS POSING AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND  
RISK WILL EXTEND FROM IN SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE TN.  

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Latest HRRR has a much larger window for discrete cells than last nights runs.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Watching this cell west of San Angelo. It's on a very obvious temp/moisture gradient and shear is favorable for supercells. As you'd expect for 3pm in Texas in late May, low-level winds are pretty weak but if it can stay discrete for a few more hours, it would easily become tornadic

Edited May 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Left-split went severe warned quickly. Right-mover might run into the same situation as the one last night where it has to deal with a lot of mergers/interference

With the wind profile present, the FFD should be oriented southwest-northeast (as it currently is) and the inflow notch should come in from the northeast into the hook.

Edited May 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Advantage of having a supercell near a radar... you can pick out some anatomy. 

#1: forward flank downdraft (FFD)... usually don't actually see this on radar unless it's close. 

#2: rotation. The enhanced inbounds (lighter greens) in this circle is the rear flank downdraft (RFD) wrapping around and trying to meet with the inflow... so we may be in the beginning stages of tornadogenesis.

#3: not related to the supercell but will be important... some sort of boundary. I'd imagine the supercell will try to follow it and that's when we can expect greatest tornado potential imo.

Edited May 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

New day 2 expands marginal and tornado area more into Ohio.

Quote

 Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1218 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   COASTAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...MID
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday from the
   Texas Coastal Plain into parts of the the lower/mid Mississippi
   Valley, Southeast, Midwest, and Ohio Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   A closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward across the
   southern/central Plains on Wednesday, eventually approaching the
   lower MO Valley and mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A belt
   of enhanced mid-level south-southwesterly flow will precede this
   feature, and should be present over the TX Coastal Plain into the
   mid MS Valley and Midwest through the day. At the surface, a weak
   low initially over KS/OK should develop slowly east-northeastward
   towards the Midwest through Wednesday afternoon, and eventually
   reach the Great Lakes late Wednesday night. A warm front associated
   with this low is forecast to lift northward across the OH Valley and
   Midwest through the day, while a cold front moves slowly
   east-southeastward across the TX Coastal Plain and lower/mid MS
   Valley.

   ...Texas Coastal Plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
   An expansive MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
   Wednesday morning along/near the middle/upper TX Coast into the
   lower MS Valley. Isolated strong to damaging winds will be possible
   with this line of convection until it clears the coast. The northern
   portion of the MCS should continue to advance eastward across the
   lower MS Valley through the morning and early afternoon. The
   potential for substantial destabilization ahead of the line across
   this region remains clouded by the prospect of low-level,
   warm-advection driven thunderstorms across the warm sector. In
   addition, various NAM/RAP forecast soundings show a rather
   unidirectional (mainly southerly) wind profile with height through
   low/mid levels. This should tend to limit deep-layer shear, although
   the line itself will probably maintain some organization through the
   day while posing a continued threat for isolated strong to damaging
   winds.

   At this point, confidence is not high enough to include greater
   severe wind probabilities across any portion of the lower MS Valley.
   But, did expand the Marginal Risk to include more of AL, southern
   LA/MS, and the western FL Panhandle for potential open warm sector
   convection. Finally, some guidance hints at redevelopment along the
   cold front across the lower MS Valley/Southeast late Wednesday
   evening and overnight. If this occurs, then an isolated severe risk
   may persist across these areas, with damaging winds the main threat.
   However, the low-level flow field may strengthen enough to also
   support embedded rotation and a tornado or two in this time frame.

   ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest...
   To the north of the previously mentioned squall line, the airmass
   should gradually destabilize through the day as a warm front shifts
   northward across the Midwest and OH Valley. Isolated to scattered
   thunderstorms should develop across these regions by Wednesday
   afternoon. Weak to locally moderate instability and adequate
   deep-layer shear should promote mainly multicell clusters capable of
   producing isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail.

   Effective bulk shear should be a little stronger across parts of the
   mid MS Valley and vicinity, in closer proximity to the upper low and
   mid-level jet. A couple of supercells may develop across this region
   Wednesday afternoon while posing a threat for all severe hazards.
   Low-level shear may also be locally maximized along/near the warm
   front Wednesday afternoon, with potential for a tornado or two with
   any marginal supercells that can cross the front across parts of the
   OH Valley. Otherwise, convective coverage and intensity should peak
   late Wednesday afternoon across these regions, before gradually
   diminishing Wednesday evening/night as nocturnal cooling occurs and
   instability weakens.

   ..Gleason.. 05/24/2022

 

 

[snowlover2]

ILN latest thoughts.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Hi-res models and the HREF are pretty robust in showing these
showers moving along the warm front Wednesday morning, so have
increased PoPs to high chance/likely category across a good
swath of our CWA. The best focus of these showers will be along
the ripple of shortwave energy, which is generally focused
closer towards the Tristate. As we progress into the mid morning
hours, the shortwave energy flattens and the warm front pushes
northward, which should limit coverage in pcpn during the late
morning/early afternoon.

During this period, WAA becomes amplified. Surface temperatures
will climb into the low to mid 80s south of I-70, with dewpoints
increasing into the mid-60s. Instability will increase
substantially throughout the day, with SBCAPE values of
1500-2000 J/kg near the Tristate by 21z Wednesday afternoon.
Steep low level lapse rates of 7-8C/km of favored across the fa,
but lapse rates become less impressive aloft due to the deep
layer moisture building in. PWATs will climb to around 1.6-1.7
inches during this same time, providing an elevated potential
for flooding.

There are some differences in the placement/coverage in pcpn
across the suite of hi-res models, but redevelopment is expected
to occur during the late afternoon/early evening and continue
into a good portion of the night. Lowest coverage will be
towards central OH. SPC did expand the SWODY2 Marginal in our
CWA to cover the majority of our counties, with damaging winds
and large hail being the primary threats. However, there
continues to be an indication of a low-end chance for an
isolated tornado to develop given the favorable directional
shear profiles. The main limiting factor may be the 0-1km speed
shear, which is lower (less than 15 kts) from the NAM3k, whereas
the HRRR shows some locations obtaining values in the 15-25 kt
range, which would provide a better setup for a possible tornado
threat. Will continue to leave out tor mention in the HWO, but
will monitor trends in models to see if it is warranted to
include the mention.

Coverage in pcpn decreases substantially after 06z, with more of
a focus in our western counties from there on out.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper low over the central Plains at the beginning of period will
move east across the area during the early part of the period with
much of the 12Z model suite showing a slightly faster movement of
the system. Deep meridional flow ahead of the system will draw ample
moisture into the region. Showers and storms will increase in
coverage and intensity on Thursday. There could be a few corridors
of heavy rainfall depending on how storms align. Also cannot rule
out some strong to severe storms during peak heating.

Activity will largely move east of the area on Thursday night. But
additional showers and storms will occur Friday into Friday night as
the upper system tracks through the region.

Ridging at the surface and aloft will then develop over the weekend
and continue into early next week. This will result in an extended
period of dry weather. Temperatures will warm quickly with readings
into the mid to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday.

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

About to get some crazy good scans of this supercell assuming it doesn't know out the radar.... definitely a possibility. That'd be a huge bummer. 

Edited May 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Nasty hook with the supercell NE of the HP supercell

[Chinook]

38 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

About to get some crazy good scans of this supercell assuming it doesn't know out the radar.... definitely a possibility. That'd be a huge bummer. 

Radars usually survive quite well unless hit by winds of hurricane force.  Meanwhile, KDYX is down for maintenance or something.

 

Quote

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Brown County in west central Texas...
  Southeastern Coleman County in west central Texas...

* Until 530 PM CDT.
    
* At 449 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Mozelle, or near Gouldbusk, moving east at 25 mph.

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Chinook

[Central Illinois]

16 hours ago, Neoncyclone said:

Watch till the end, you can see the satellites forming and rotating around, easy to see because of the dust. They were beefy satellite too WOW. If this hit a populated area it would have been a really big mess.

wow that tornado was a monster their at the end of the video pretty impressive!

[ClicheVortex2014]

70 mph tennis balls itsanofrommedog.gif

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

13 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

70 mph tennis balls itsanofrommedog.gif

 

now 80 mph baseballs

[Chinook]

13 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

70 mph tennis balls itsanofrommedog.gif

 

Weird, your message seems say the file name of the image. Not sure. But yeah, the southern Plains in May!

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 minute ago, Chinook said:

Weird, your message seems say the file name of the image. Not sure. But yeah, the southern Plains in May!

If you’re talking about the gif it’s not real, I was too lazy to fetch the gif so if you know, you know

possible/probable tornado east of Lubbock. Solid tvs at 1700 feet

[ClicheVortex2014]

Should be a tornado warning southeast of Midland soon, I think

[ClicheVortex2014]

Fast moving tornadic supercell in SW TX. No sign of debris at all yet.

Radar indicated PDS warning. Probably due to likely hurricane force winds+ and baseball hail in addition to the potential for a fast developing tornado threat.

Edited May 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

9 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Fast moving tornadic supercell in SW TX. No sign of debris at all yet.

Radar indicated PDS warning. Probably due to likely hurricane force winds+ and baseball hail in addition to the potential for a fast developing tornado threat.

Correction... the radar indicated rotation is enough for them to confirm the tornado and the PDS warning. Dunno how that works unless they forgot to update the source

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXC173-242345-
/O.CON.KMAF.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-220524T2345Z/
Glasscock TX-
617 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GLASSCOCK COUNTY...
    
At 616 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
near Garden City, moving east at 40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction 
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Garden City around 620 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 10165 3192 10165 3189 10127 3165 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 287DEG 36KT 3184 10154 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

confirmed tornado near Garden City

I have a weird situation. My GRLevel3 program is not picking up any data since 2152z, but GRLevel2 is getting data just fine. 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Chinook

[ClicheVortex2014]

8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Correction... the radar indicated rotation is enough for them to confirm the tornado and the PDS warning. Dunno how that works unless they forgot to update the source

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXC173-242345-
/O.CON.KMAF.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-220524T2345Z/
Glasscock TX-
617 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GLASSCOCK COUNTY...
    
At 616 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
near Garden City, moving east at 40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction 
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Garden City around 620 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 10165 3192 10165 3189 10127 3165 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 287DEG 36KT 3184 10154 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

 

They must've just updated the source. Now shows up on my GR2 as tornado reported (TORR) warning rather than a regular tornado (TOR) warning and the source is a public confirmed tornado.

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
632 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXC173-242345-
/O.CON.KMAF.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-220524T2345Z/
Glasscock TX-
632 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GLASSCOCK COUNTY...
    
At 630 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located 7 miles southeast of Garden City, moving east at 40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. At intersection of CR130 and 
         CR150. Additionally, another possible tornado at Highway 
         137 and Highway 158.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction 
         is possible.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Glasscock County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3177 10154 3191 10157 3189 10127 3165 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 287DEG 36KT 3180 10137 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

I totally forgot how to configure GRLeve3 to get to get data from Iowa State Mesonet web site. Any ideas?

[snowlover2]

No longer confirmed but also with possible 2" hail.

Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
642 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Sterling County in west central Texas...

* Until 715 PM CDT.

* At 642 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 13 miles west of Sterling City, moving southeast at 40
  mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and hail up to two inches in diameter.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southern Sterling County.

 

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by snowlover2