Neoncyclone Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 (edited) Heres Paducah NWS official track for the Keensburg/Mt.Carmel/Decker tornado, as I suspected it stayed on the ground through Decker. 26 mile long path Rated ef-2, luckily in the middle of nowhere. Every town affected has ef-1 damage somewhere though Edited May 21, 2022 by Neoncyclone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 (edited) Today looks really active, glad there isn't much tornado threat but I think the wind threat could be increased Edited May 21, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 (edited) Slight risk is long and skinny. Keeping weather alert today. Small batch of storms coming through this AM but nothing to robust. Garden variety storm. Sitting on the very edge of slight risk. Main line might initiate to my east then progress from there. Edited May 21, 2022 by NWOhioChaser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 This has to be the longest slight risk there's ever been. Stretches from Del Rio to New England, that's insane 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Medina Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Hoping for a storm, since there hasn't been one yet........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Looks like things are about to get going soon. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Areas affected...Portions of southern IL/IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211506Z - 211700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may strengthen over the next couple of hours and become capable of producing scattered damaging winds. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...At 15Z, a small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing along/near the MS River in the vicinity of St. Louis MO. This activity is probably still slightly elevated to the north of a surface boundary and outflow from prior convection. However, the airmass downstream across parts of southern IL/IN is in the process of destabilizing, with diurnal heating promoting surface temperatures to rise generally into the 70s per recent observations. A fairly moist low-level airmass is also in place across this area, along with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates per 12Z sounding from ILX. This cluster may become surface based over the next couple of hours as it spreads into southern IL/IN and encounters greater instability. Given the already linear mode, scattered damaging winds should be the main threat, although some hail may also occur. Convective trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing thunderstorm intensity, which may prompt watch issuance in next couple of hours. ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/21/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 ILN today and beyond. Quote AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1026 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions are expected today, with showers and storms moving into the area this afternoon and tonight. A cold front will move through the region Sunday, switching winds to the northwest, and bringing drier and cooler conditions later Sunday into Monday. Warmer temperatures are expected again Tuesday and Wednesday, with chances for storms returning by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Morning update: made slight adjustments to PoPs based on time- lapsed HRRR and RAP for late this morning into early afternoon. Radar trends still show the weakening cluster of showers and storms arriving east-central Indiana and west-central Ohio around or just before noon. Based on this morning`s cluster over-performing... that is, producing 45-55 knot gusts just northwest of our CWA... will need to watch closely for gusts along and immediately behind the initial gust front associated with the midday showers. Beyond this, chances of storm development heading into the mid- afternoon hours will pick up considerably along and northwest of Interstate 71. CAMs showing 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE along with 25-30 knots of effective bulk shear should lead to multicellular organization with perhaps a few supercells. Relatively weak low-level flow and little directional shear keep tornado threat on the low side... however will still need to watch based on storm- to- storm interactions and the moderate instability. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Although the first rounds of convection (possibly severe) will already be underway by the time this evening rolls around, the synoptic-scale pattern will not change much heading into the overnight hours. This is largely because the surface cold front will remain hung up just upstream of the region, only resuming its southeastward motion after 00Z. While surface-based instability may be worked over, the approach of the front (and continuing favorable upper support) will allow for additional showers and storms to develop through the overnight hours. The severe threat with this additional activity should be low, but it will necessitate keeping PoPs in the forecast (as high as 60-80 percent) into Sunday morning. With the front in the area, there will be a gradient in min temps -- mid 50s in the northwestern CWA to upper 60s in the southeastern CWA. Given some slight uncertainties regarding frontal timing and the sharp gradient in temperatures, this is a fairly low-confidence forecast for min temps. The front will continue moving southeast on Sunday, resulting in a gradual drying trend from NW to SE. For similar reasons as described above with respect to min temps Sunday morning, max temps Sunday afternoon are also a low-confidence forecast. The surface front will likely clear the forecast area by around 18Z, but the theta-e axis at 850mb will be lagging behind the surface front, helping to explain why cloud cover (and some chances for rain) will continue into the early to mid afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A system moving mainly southeast of the region will bring a slight chance for precipitation to southeastern portions of the forecast area Sunday night into Monday morning. After this system shifts off to the east, dry conditions will be in place through Tuesday morning. There will then be the potential for a few pop up showers and storms Tuesday afternoon generally near and south of the Ohio River. A stronger low pressure system approaches and moves through the region Wednesday into Thursday. Winds will increase on both of these days and be gusty. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to occur on both days. There is the potential for some severe storms with this system and models are in general agreement as well. Decided to hold off on mention in the HWO at this point to see some additional consistent runs showing this potential. Precipitation will taper off on Friday with Saturday expected to be a dry day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 (edited) Man, not much time for the atmosphere to recover this way. Clearing is occurring and it's already up to 74 with DP of 64. But it looks like the line has already formed in central IL. Edited May 21, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 21, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 21, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 21, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 21, 2022 (edited) It's looking better than I was expecting. Already have a MCS and we already have 3000-4000 sbcape/2000-3000 mlcape. I'd imagine that'll decrease a bit as 'too much mixing' may be a thing today. But 12z soundings showed decently steep lapse rates... ranging from 7-8C/km. That should make sure that we hold on to strong instability Shear is pretty pathetic for May. Will still be good enough for storm organization and maybe a brief supercell Edited May 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 We may have a legitimate risk today 👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 (edited) Thinking something will form here and move ENE away from us. Hige bust potential here in Toledo. Air feels soupy today though Edited May 21, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Here we go. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IL into IN...western OH...and far northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 211700Z - 211900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Continuing to monitor a line of thunderstorms moving across Illinois for signs of increasing intensity and damaging wind potential. Watch issuance appears increasingly likely in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is present over parts of southern/central IL at 17Z. This line has remained sub-severe so far, with wind gusts generally in the 35-45 kt range. Still, the airmass downstream into IN and northern KY continues to destabilize along and south of a front. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg has become common as temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s. Recent high-resolution guidance suggests that this ongoing cluster will intensify over the next couple of hours as it moves eastward across IN, northern KY, and eventually parts of western OH. Gradually strengthening southwesterly flow through mid levels is noted on recent VWPs from KVWX/KIND, which should aid in thunderstorm organization. Current expectations are for the cluster to pose a gradually increasing threat for scattered damaging winds as it encounters a more unstable airmass in IN and vicinity. Some hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. Accordingly, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance appears likely in the next hour or two. ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/21/2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Severe thunderstorm watch is up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Watch just issued until 7pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Tornado warning in SE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Me? It’s 55°F and misting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 254 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Central and Southern Indiana Northern and Central Kentucky Western Ohio * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over Illinois will track eastward across the watch area, while new storms form ahead of the line. Damaging winds are the main threat with the strongest cells, although some large hail is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 10 miles east of Dayton OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 21, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 21, 2022 I'm not saying this because I live in this corridor, but I like southern Indiana/western Ohio the most for severe weather. It has a nice balance of instability and 0-6km shear. Directional shear is a lost cause so I'm not gonna even mention that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 (edited) Storms popping near Muncie.. but thats too far south for Toledo. Edited May 21, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Medina Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Warned cell west of Bloomington IN with possible ping pong ball sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Looks like I'm going to just get missed by these storms. 😆 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 New watch just issued east of current one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 First warning for ILN just SW of Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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