May 7-28, 2022 | Severe Weather/MCS Sequence

[i70split]

Severe studios has a lone chaser on it, at Gaylord 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Rotation strengthened since last scan. 65 dBz debris ball

[i70split]

Jordan Hall chasing . Can't get a link right now. Watching on work computer 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Looks like it lifted but I'm sure it's not done. It's gotta clear out the inflow now and then it should get going again

[ClicheVortex2014]

SPC says it should keep going until it reaches the lake shore which is about 50 miles away from the rotation. So about another hour of this.

   Mesoscale Discussion 0844
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

   Areas affected...northern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252...

   Valid 201952Z - 202145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A tornadic supercell may persist as it travels
   east/northeast toward Lake Huron.

   DISCUSSION...The storm complex that crossed Lake MI has indeed
   evolved into a supercell, which has become tornadic as it
   encountered the warmer surface-based air mass. This storm is
   currently producing a tornado near Gaylord, MI.  The air mass
   remains relatively warm for the duration of the expected storm track
   over the next couple hours, and the 19Z APX sounding shows plenty of
   low-level shear with 0-1 values around 280 m2/s2. This is higher
   than objective analysis had earlier indicated. As such, the tornado
   threat is expected to persist until the storm encounters the cooler
   air near the lake.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

It has strong, clear inflow denoted by the arching low CC values. Can it get the RFD to cooperate though?

[ClicheVortex2014]

Sounding in the vicinity of the tornadic supercell earlier. Impressive considering the surface winds were likely more southerly. Makes sense we had this kind of supercell. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Damage in Gaylord. Not surprised honestly.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

So I applied for a vacancy for NWS Memphis back in January, didn't get far with them, but I got a call like a week and a half ago from them saying another vacancy has opened up. They asked me to do a video presentation on some general things about my accomplishments/my goals/NWS... did that, just heard back that they want to do an interview. Gonna be my second NWS interview. Fingers crossed. 

Edited May 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Excuse me??

[ClicheVortex2014]

Crazy video. That kind of intensification matches with what was shown on radar.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Pretty crazy sounding for OV standards. Really looks more like a Plains thermo profile. I wonder if this is the beginning of a trend for this summer, given the Plains drought.

Getting some sustained windy conditions here with some strong gusts. The strong low-level winds here combined with dry low-level conditions makes sense now. Got respectable elevated instability in place but I still have serious questions about tomorrow. Gonna hold off on that until more 0z runs come in. A nice little preview: I don't trust a positive tilt trough with a southeastward advancing cold front to produce a widespread slight risk

Edited May 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

I'm definitely a fan of 0z HRRR but I have doubts

[Bman10]

8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I'm definitely a fan of 0z HRRR but I have doubts

I’m a fan too 🤩

[Ingyball]

3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

So I applied for a vacancy for NWS Memphis back in January, didn't get far with them, but I got a call like a week and a half ago from them saying another vacancy has opened up. They asked me to do a video presentation on some general things about my accomplishments/my goals/NWS... did that, just heard back that they want to do an interview. Gonna be my second NWS interview. Fingers crossed. 

Good luck! You'd be a great addition to the weather service.

[StormfanaticInd]

16 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I'm definitely a fan of 0z HRRR but I have doubts

It will find a way to bust. Seems to the trend 🙄

[ClicheVortex2014]

21 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Good luck! You'd be a great addition to the weather service.

I appreciate it, and I hope so. I just need an office to take a chance on me. Granted, it's also on me because I don't have an impressive resume and I need to get better at interviews. But as long as I keep getting chances, I'm happy. I think I'll get there eventually.

20 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

It will find a way to bust. Seems to the trend 🙄

I really felt that this event was a stretch from the beginning because of the positive tilt. I guess a part of it is preparing myself for disappointment. But also positive tilts are almost never good for strong to severe storms. 12/10/21 was an extreme exception.

Edited May 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

NAM's don't look terrible either.

[1816]

5 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

So I applied for a vacancy for NWS Memphis back in January, didn't get far with them, but I got a call like a week and a half ago from them saying another vacancy has opened up. They asked me to do a video presentation on some general things about my accomplishments/my goals/NWS... did that, just heard back that they want to do an interview. Gonna be my second NWS interview. Fingers crossed. 

Best of luck I'm sure you're going to nail it.   Everyone here is in your corner. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

This would be a big win for us in western Ohio. I will remain pessimistic until I see it actually unfold

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[NWOhioChaser]

32 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

This would be a big win for us in western Ohio. I will remain pessimistic until I see it actually unfold

This would be quite the straight-line wind event if it verified but I have my doubts. Still a bit early for our season to kick off.

Hopefully optimistic on my end.

Edited May 21, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[Columbusbuckeye]

7 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

So I applied for a vacancy for NWS Memphis back in January, didn't get far with them, but I got a call like a week and a half ago from them saying another vacancy has opened up. They asked me to do a video presentation on some general things about my accomplishments/my goals/NWS... did that, just heard back that they want to do an interview. Gonna be my second NWS interview. Fingers crossed. 

Good luck, buddy!  You’ve got this!

Edited May 21, 2022 by Columbusbuckeye

[Sentinel]

9 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

So I applied for a vacancy for NWS Memphis back in January, didn't get far with them, but I got a call like a week and a half ago from them saying another vacancy has opened up. They asked me to do a video presentation on some general things about my accomplishments/my goals/NWS... did that, just heard back that they want to do an interview. Gonna be my second NWS interview. Fingers crossed.