May 7-28, 2022 | Severe Weather/MCS Sequence

[Ingyball]

Don't mind me, just posting a random sounding out ahead of a Supercell that the 18z HRRR has in southern South Dakota. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Just now, Ingyball said:

Don't mind me, just posting a random sounding out ahead of a Supercell that the 18z HRRR has in southern South Dakota. 

Shear could be better

[snowlover2]

Watch is up.

Quote

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 190
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   520 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     North central Nebraska
     South central South Dakota

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along a
   sharpening cold front through late evening.  The storm environment
   will support a mix of multicell clusters and some supercell
   structures capable of producing isolated large hail of 1 to 1.5
   inches in diameter, as well as damaging outflow gusts of 60-70 mph.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
   statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest
   of Huron SD to 45 miles south of Mullen NE. For a complete depiction
   of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   24025.

   ...Thompson

 

 

[Neoncyclone]

Woah 

[Guest]

Did get a tornado warning 20 miles north of me.

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

NAM has serious potential for Monday. The question is about the presence of storms. It appears the Upper Midwest has the best potential for storms to take advantage of a primed environment.

I mean, this is an incredible 500mb pattern. Epic western trough. This La Nina has definitely produced up to expectations.

Edited May 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Most models have convection popping around 7pm Central

[ClicheVortex2014]

Kinda small slight risk

  Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0101 AM CDT Sun May 08 2022

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
   IOWA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated late-day storms may develop from portions of Iowa into
   adjacent western Wisconsin, where local risk for hail/damaging
   winds, and possibly a tornado, may evolve.

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper pattern across the U.S. will remain largely unchanged at
   broad scales, with a trough remaining over the west, while a low
   drifts very slowly eastward away from the East Coast.

   At the surface, a baroclinic zone will continue to stretch
   northeast-to-southwest across the Plains and into the southwestern
   U.S., with minor eastward progress expected through the period.

   ...Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity...
   Afternoon heating/mixing south/east of an oscillating baroclinic
   zone lying over the Upper Mississippi Valley area will occur Monday.
   While strong capping will remain in place through much of the day,
   the cap will weaken through peak heating due primarily to mixing
   effects.  

   Models continue to vary with respect to potential for cap breaches
   -- and subsequent late-day surface-based storm development.  With
   that said, agreement exists that strong CAPE will evolve which --
   combined with flow veering and increasing with height -- supports an
   all-hazards severe risk.  As such, a narrow corridor of conditional
   15% hail/wind and 5% tornado potential is being included from
   portions of south-central Iowa to southwestern Wisconsin.

   Lesser risk is apparent northward to the Minnesota arrowhead, where
   isolated storms may develop late in the day near the front, within a
   less-unstable airmass.  

   Overall, any surface-based storms should weaken shortly after
   sunset, as the cap becomes re-established.  Elevated storms,
   meanwhile, may expand across central and northern Wisconsin and
   adjacent areas overnight, where local risk for hail may persist into
   the overnight hours.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Back-to-back extreme fire weather days. This wildfire season continues to be insane. Not fair to compare it to a high risk day because there's a feedback loop with fire days that doesn't have nearly the equivalent impact in severe weather... but this has still been hyperactive. Wonder how close we are to being the most active Plains wildfire season on record.

 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 AM CDT Sun May 08 2022

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
   MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
   PANHANDLES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Significant wildfire-spread concerns are expected across portions of
   the Southern High Plains today. An 80+ kt mid-level jet streak will
   impinge on the southern Rockies as a broad mid-level trough
   continues to amplify across the western/central U.S. Rapid
   surface-low intensification is also expected to occur across the
   central High Plains. Strong gradient flow from the intensifying
   surface cyclone, and downward momentum transport of the stronger
   flow aloft via a well-mixed boundary layer, will both promote very
   windy, dry surface conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire
   spread. 

   ...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
   As the boundary layer mixes through the afternoon, widespread 25+
   mph sustained west-southwesterly winds will develop as RH dips below
   15 percent on a widespread basis. Widespread Elevated to Critical
   fire weather conditions are expected to overspread much of the
   Southwest into the southern High Plains. However, a corridor exists
   across much of central/eastern New Mexico into southeast Colorado
   and the western Texas Panhandle where 25+ mph sustained winds (with
   higher gusts) will overlap with single-digit RH and anomalously dry
   fuels for at least a few hours this afternoon. These dangerous
   conditions will support very rapid wildfire spread with any new
   starts and exacerbate existing fires, perhaps supporting extreme
   fire behavior, warranting the expansion of Extremely Critical
   highlights across the southern High Plains.

 

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 AM CDT Sun May 08 2022

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO
   NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad upper troughing will prevail across the western and central
   U.S., with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the northern
   Plains and a second, less pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on
   the Rockies tomorrow/Monday. The approach of this second impulse
   will encourage surface low development across the central/southern
   High Plains, supporting another dangerous day of dry/windy
   conditions conducive to rapid wildfire spread across the
   Southwest/southern High Plains.

   ...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
   Similar to today, boundary-layer mixing and gradient flow will
   encourage the development of widespread 20+ mph sustained
   west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH across much of
   the Southwest into the southern High Plains tomorrow, warranting
   both the maintenance and expansion of Elevated/Critical highlights.
   Guidance consensus also depicts a corridor of 25+ mph sustained
   winds (with higher gusts) overlapping with 10 percent RH (perhaps
   locally lower in spots) and anomalously dry fuels, promoting
   dangerous conditions supporting extreme fire behavior. Extremely
   Critical highlights were introduced where the most volatile surface
   meteorological conditions and receptive fuels will coincide for at
   least a few hours Monday afternoon.

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

Lots of heat coming it seems like, for a lot of people

[Iceresistance]

It looks like that I'll miss the worst of the heatwave . . .

[Iceresistance]

This is now turned into "May 7th - ? Heatwave/Severe weather"

 

Spoiler

Current Location: On I-10 West near Tallahassee, Florida

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by Iceresistance

[ClicheVortex2014]

Impressive wording for day 5. All the pieces are there. Negative tilt... substantial cyclogenesis... several days of moisture advection... steep lapse rates aloft... increase of deep-layer winds.

  Severe risk becomes more apparent Day 5/Thursday, across the
   north-central CONUS.  As the western U.S. trough shifts
   northeastward across the central High Plains toward the northern
   Plains into the afternoon, models indicate the feature acquiring
   negative tilt with time -- supporting fairly substantial northern
   Plains cyclogenesis.  Models differ with strength of the upper
   system, and as such, location of the surface low and associated warm
   and cold frontal progression.  Still, confidence is high enough to
   include a broad 15% risk area to cover what appears at this time to
   be the envelope of greatest risk.  Given several days of low-level
   moist advection beneath steep lapse rates aloft, and the increase in
   deep-layer flow that will accompany the advance of the upper system,
   potential for supercells -- and an all-hazards severe risk -- seems
   a reasonable bet from afternoon into the overnight hours.

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

18z HRRR for the next 48 hours. Nasty morning supercell/mini bowing segment to start the day tomorrow. Would be good for some significant severe weather with no tornado threat

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Looking like this environment is gonna go to waste in Kansas. For the best for those in the vicinity... but damn.

[Neoncyclone]

28 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Looking like this environment is gonna go to waste in Kansas. For the best for those in the vicinity... but damn.

Would've been an insane day with a little forcing

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said:

Would've been an insane day with a little forcing

Pretty impressive we're even seeing that kind of sounding in early-ish May. Starting to see some inconsistent glimpses of other late spring/early summer weather spreading into our region. Finally.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Expecting to see a swath of damaging winds and/or hail through the morning. The afternoon event looks questionable right now. Nothing really sticks out right now.

[ClicheVortex2014]

0z NAM for Thursday morning is pretty crazy. Even though it's out of climatology, I wonder if they're gonna go with a day 4 enhanced. All the pieces are there.

That low-70 dew point in SE SD is probably overdone but still.

Edited May 9, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Well this is looking like a June pattern rather than a May pattern and I'm hating it. After one of the more active first weeks of May I can remember for this area, it seems like a summer pattern is shaping up, with the storms way to the north while we roast down here... Models aren't looking great for us either but I don't trust anything that far out so all is not lost yet. But I could definitely see us going the next couple weeks at least without a drop of rain here. Now I'm not one to root for any outbreaks or anything but it would be nice to at least get some rain. Since the PGA championship is in Tulsa this year and I'm going to it on that Thursday (5/19 I think) that will probably be the day it rains as it's the one day I don't want any lol

But yeah it's not looking too great for us right now...

 

[StormfanaticInd]

8 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Well this is looking like a June pattern rather than a May pattern and I'm hating it. After one of the more active first weeks of May I can remember for this area, it seems like a summer pattern is shaping up, with the storms way to the north while we roast down here... Models aren't looking great for us either but I don't trust anything that far out so all is not lost yet. But I could definitely see us going the next couple weeks at least without a drop of rain here. Now I'm not one to root for any outbreaks or anything but it would be nice to at least get some rain. Since the PGA championship is in Tulsa this year and I'm going to it on that Thursday (5/19 I think) that will probably be the day it rains as it's the one day I don't want any lol

But yeah it's not looking too great for us right now...

 

Could be a sign of a very hot summer on the way 

[ClicheVortex2014]

No thanks

[Guest]

It’s not a beautiful day in the neighborhood.

Doesn’t snow all winter, won’t stop raining in the spring.  Just started to get close to being able to get in the fields Friday, albeit dodging mudholes.  2.18” over the weekend took care of that.  Later this week ought to finish off any hope of planting corn this year.

This would be a good week for day drinking if my doctor would let me lol.

 

At least I missed this:

 

[Neoncyclone]

Tornadoes are going to be a big question mark today because there's a relatively thin area for tornadoes to take place, also there isn't super high confidence in convection even, but this mornings last few HRRR runs looks concerning.

Here's some 11z loops.

 

[Neoncyclone]

Here's a sounding out ahead of initiation