Neoncyclone Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 (edited) Speaking of letting the storms come to me, those are some pretty robust updraft swaths the HRRR has rolling through my county Edited May 19, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 tornado confirmed next to suburbs/ I-170 at western St. Louis. this has moved northward past Clayton, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 There's the restrengthening. Gotta watch those pre-squall storms too. 2 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 Haven't seen this done on a non-EF2+ tornado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Was just watching The Weather Channel, and it looks like a disaster in St Louis this rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 (edited) This is as explosive as supercell development that you'll get in S IN, wow I have not seen something like that from here in a while!!! Edited May 19, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said: This is as explosive as supercell development that you'll get in S IN, wow I have not seen something like that from here in a while!!! Shear is okay, I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Shear is okay, I guess. Good directional shear, working on speed shear, should see some more inflated hodographs in an hour or so Edited May 19, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 southwestern Indiana- some 3" hail estimated by GRLevel3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Good directional shear, working on speed shear, should see some more inflated hodographs in a couple hours By standards of high-end events, you're right, it could use some stronger deep layer shear. But overall that shear is pretty damn solid. More than enough for a tornadic supercell. You're very rarely gonna get easterly surface winds with southwesterly winds aloft in the OV. That's a Plains kind of thing. We're good at low-level speed shear and deep-layer shear What I think might be an issue is the fact that this is on the northeast side of some sort of boundary visible on radar. Parcels could be slightly elevated seeing as the explosive initial growth has waned Edited May 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 I'm guessing storms from this prefrontal band will intensify as they get close to this frontal boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 GR2 stopped loading. That's fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 I expected supercells today but closer to the MCV and less in the warm sector. Going on hour 7 now and we still have discrete cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: By standards of high-end events, you're right, it could use some stronger deep layer shear. But overall that shear is pretty damn solid. More than enough for a tornadic supercell. You're very rarely gonna get easterly surface winds with southwesterly winds aloft in the OV. That's a Plains kind of thing. We're good at low-level speed shear and deep-layer shear What I think might be an issue is the fact that this is on the northeast side of some sort of boundary visible on radar. Parcels could be slightly elevated seeing as the explosive initial growth has waned I think growth was hindered because the storm appears to be splitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 (edited) Supercell SW of Cincy. Definitely has some rotation. Edited May 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 non-tornado warned storm at Elizabethtown, KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 Looks like the Cincy metro supercell split and this is the right mover. Looks pretty damn healthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 SPC continues on their mesoscale MCD spree. New tornado watch coming for this area that could possibly include Cincinnati. Mesoscale Discussion 0834 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0621 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Areas affected...southern IN...northern parts of central KY Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244... Valid 192321Z - 200015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244 continues. SUMMARY...The wind profile is forecast to strengthen over the next few hours. Some increase in supercell tornado potential may occur. A new watch will likely be considered prior to the expiration of severe thunderstorm watch #244 at 8pm EDT. DISCUSSION...Model guidance has indicated a strengthening in flow in the 925-850 mb layer during the late afternoon into the evening timeframe. More specifically, the ECMWF showed 850mb flow increasing from 20 kt at 5pm EDT, to 25-30 kt at 8pm, and 35-40 kt by 11pm. The initial signs of this low-level wind intensification appear to be occurring via sampling of the KLVX VAD during the past 2 hours. The proximity of the warm frontal zone and rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 deg F) imply some increase in supercell tornado potential. Given the observed and expected change in the environmental wind field over the next couple of hours, a new watch will likely be considered for portions of southern IN, parts of central and northern KY, and perhaps as far northeast as extreme southwest OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 This was the end of the 18z HRRR so take it however you want but it makes Saturday look active here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 Pretty decent hook but velocity shows a surface divergence signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Multiple pictures from the STL storms on this Fox 2 FB page! https://www.facebook.com/FOX2Now/posts/539353647781270 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 3 active tornado warnings in IL now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 MCV is only severe to the north, weird considering best environment is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Possible golf balls with the Cincy cell. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 731 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022 INC115-KYC015-117-OHC061-200000- /O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-220520T0000Z/ Ohio IN-Kenton KY-Boone KY-Hamilton OH- 731 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR OHIO...NORTHERN KENTON...NORTHERN BOONE AND SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES... At 731 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Aurora, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Locations impacted include... Cincinnati, Florence, Erlanger, Edgewood, Elsmere, Villa Hills, Crescent Springs, Aurora, Oakbrook, Burlington, Delhi Township, Delhi Hills, Delshire, French, Idlewild, Constance, Hebron, Cvg Airport, Petersburg and Covedale. This includes I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 180 and 185. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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