May 7-28, 2022 | Severe Weather/MCS Sequence

[ElectricStorm]

On the eastern edge of the severe watch here. Hopefully we can get something decent but it needs to move out before around 6am or so

[ElectricStorm]

Also I think we could see some upgrades in OK for Friday. All of the CAMs except HRRR are currently showing something forming although it looks to be a mostly wind/hail threat. That being said however, every time the HRRR has shown nothing for us this year its been correct so we'll see...

[Central Illinois]

pretty intense bowing segment (70mph winds+) plowing through northern/central Oklahoma right now  

[StormfanaticInd]

That's a switch🤔

 

[snowlover2]

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

That's a switch🤔

 

HRRR still showing this as of now. Interesting to see if the marginal risk gets shifted up this way.

[ElectricStorm]

10 hatched tor area up for N IA/SE MN could get nasty up there today 

[snowlover2]

59 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

HRRR still showing this as of now. Interesting to see if the marginal risk gets shifted up this way.

Well called that one. They also dropped the 10% hatched tornado.

 

[snowlover2]

There’s a severe cell west St. Louis already.

[snowlover2]

Slight risk up to Dayton now and enhanced added to S IL/S IN.

[Iceresistance]

I had some light showers earlier this morning, likely influenced by the MCV when it was in Kansas. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Looks like a tornado watch will be issued soon

Edited May 19, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[Roger89]

Two severe t storms in extreme SW Indiana.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=INZ087&warncounty=INC173&firewxzone=INZ087&local_place1=Lynnville IN&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning&lat=38.1989&lon=-87.3174#.YoaF6MHMLt8

[ClicheVortex2014]

Should be an interesting and very active day in the OV

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Mesoscale Discussion 0829
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0118 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

   Areas affected...southern Indiana into Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191818Z - 192045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Clusters of storms producing large hail and sporadic wind
   damage are expected to persist for several more hours.

   DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a substantial CU field across TN
   and KY, with a surge of higher dewpoints northward. Storms have
   erupted along this effective front over southern IN which also lies
   within the 850 theta-e advection zone. Given continued heating and
   the persistent diffuse moist advection zone, addition clusters of
   storms may form east or southeastward into KY, with hail and
   localized wind damage. The ongoing IN cluster may effectively
   translate eastward, and additional isolated storms may develop to
   its south over central KY.

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Storms are really strong in south Indiana 

[Neoncyclone]

These storms kind of scare me for later this evening, amazing structure for the shear really being weak for now, guessing that boundary is doing work. Too close for comfort, gonna be an active day down here I can almost guarantee it.

Edited May 19, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[ClicheVortex2014]

First tornado warning goes to the NEmost supercell in the SW IN cluster

Edited May 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Tornado warned storm looks impressive. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Quickly turning into a mess because the wind profile favors splitting supercells.

 

HRRR is botching initialization so this is just a wait-and-see event. That said, it does make sense for a flash flood threat somewhere in the region

[ClicheVortex2014]

The MO MCS is picking up steam and strength. Was moving at 20-25 mph, now 30. Velocities are obviously stronger than earlier.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Still 60 mph winds but it is moving at 35 mph now... an indication that the cold pool is maturing. Strong to extremely unstable environment ahead of it.

Edited May 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Gotta wonder if this is the start of a derecho. It's really strengthening now and it's moving into extremely unstable conditions

I definitely think we'll get big linear action later, whether or not it's strong enough to classify derecho who knows, can't say i've ever seen a Derecho come from SO MO and move east, at least not recently. we usually see our mid-west derechos come from north-west, unless in the case of tropical remnants, we do sometimes see a derecho come south-west to north-east.

[Neoncyclone]

Just now, Neoncyclone said:

I definitely think we'll get big linear action later, whether or not it's strong enough to classify derecho who knows, can't say i've ever seen a Derecho come from SO MO and move east, at least not recently. we usually see our mid-west derechos come from north-west, unless in the case of tropical remnants, we do sometimes see a derecho come south-west to north-east.

Actually now that I think about it a Derecho took a very similar track in 2011

[Neoncyclone]

Guess I never read this, NWS says "pristine" air mass ahead of the bow segment. If I were a NWS forecaster I'm not sure i'd be cut out enough for all the different adjectives you have to come up with to convey the atmospheric conditions 🤣

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[ClicheVortex2014]

15 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Actually now that I think about it a Derecho took a very similar track in 2011

This corridor is the same one that had the posterchild of derechos/MCVs on May 7-8, 2009. Radar loop in link

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may82009page.htm

Edited May 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014