Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 Gonna be interesting to watch what happens when the MCS further west in Kansas interacts with any outflow boundary caused from the cluster near Topeka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 Some inflow is trying to wrap around the bow echo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 Welp... bow echos galore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 18, 2022 Author Share Posted May 18, 2022 Hopefully this stuff gets far enough south to give me something, since the front Friday will probably be too early to give me anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 (edited) Sounding out ahead of these cells... verbatim there wouldn't be much severe threat due to weak instability. However, HRRR is known to overestimate mixing and the wind profile is very favorable for supercells. Not something to neglect. The western half of Kentucky is very much in the picture for severe weather tomorrow IMO. Edited May 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Not sure if this has ever been shared here, but a lot of us know of Cameron Nixon's work with hodographs, this video explains a ton I learned a lot. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Neoncyclone said: Not sure if this has ever been shared here, but a lot of us know of Cameron Nixon's work with hodographs, this video explains a ton I learned a lot. I'm glad he finally did a video. He taught his training with our office for our workshop this year back in March and at that time he hadn't done a video yet but he said it was on the menu. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 (edited) Storms are erupting Edited May 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 Possible supercells developing southwest of Louisville on the tail end of the MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 Tomorrow looks like quite the severe weather day. Kentucky gets another MCV, Minnesota gets a discrete supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 50 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Possible supercells developing southwest of Louisville on the tail end of the MCS A supercell has indeed evolved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 (edited) Beginning to see the supercell turn LP. Respectable moisture gradient in place. I doubt that velocity couplet. I think NWS does too. Edited May 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Cold pool rains to end the day, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 (edited) Seeing redevelopment behind the MCS. Strong shear but instability is elevated and mostly weak. No surprise there are some cells that are trying to take the shape of supercells but I doubt they'll have much success unless mesoanalysis is underestimating elevated instability... which is certainly possible. Edited May 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 Strong shear is showing. Sub-severe at least for now. Instability very much in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 VWP for LVX shows strong low-level shear when you consider the surface winds in the vicinity of these cells is southerly rather than westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 (edited) Nasty looking hodograph until you realize the hodograph is scaled to size and that 500mb winds are only 20-30 knots. Looks like a damn hodograph in Alabama in March Edited May 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 This is the beginning of the MCS that will create the MCV for tomorrows event in S MO/KY. This is in SE CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 (edited) So I guess the Kentucky supercells caught up with moisture. Edit: never mind... these are relatively new supercells. Not the ones from earlier. Edited May 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 (edited) Finally seeing the tornado potential I was expecting. Don't underestimate MCVs in the Spring. Goes for today, tomorrow, and the next few months honestly. Edited May 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 Could have 3 tornadic supercells soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 There it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 Tomorrow should be interesting. Easy to see two swaths of potentially significant severe weather. Right now, based on HRRR, it seems like both regions are mostly non-tornadic due to strong low-level mixing. However, it is the HRRR so I won't be surprised to see that it overestimated mixing. Hodographs in MN/WI are pretty crazy so that's the obvious place to watch. But MO/KY also needs watched due to the potential for a lot of instability if HRRR has been overmixing the BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 (edited) I gotta say, @OKwx_2001, I think we should put the end date for this thread at around May 27. If you look at these ensemble means (GFS/ECMWF), the longwave trough responsible for this severe weather regime retreats around the 27th, then we enter in yet another western trough regime, albeit definitely different. Obviously that'll require a new thread because a western trough in June is guaranteed to be trouble. It's been an absolutely incredible spring in terms of western troughs. Edited May 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2022 Sounding for NE MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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