TLChip Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: I'm following it on daily obs, too lazy to open a new thread. Didn't seem that great of a severe opp this morning. There's a suspicious cell NW of Gloversville too. People in SEPA, mostly towards Philly said local news stations were calling for terrible severe storms. It was slow in here and I didn’t see much on the models this morning (only looked at HRRR), so I just assumed typical spring frontal passage. I didn’t realize the SPC had us in enhanced either. Edited May 16, 2022 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 16, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 16, 2022 Seems like it was a pretty straight-forward enhanced risk day for the Northeast. I did see a discrete tornadic supercell earlier but so far no tornado reports from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 16, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 16, 2022 (edited) Definitely something to watch for those of us in the OV. Timing works out. Ok maybe not the OV verbatim... moisture and lapse rates are spent. Probably further southwest. Edited May 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 17, 2022 Impressive supercell in NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Definitely something to watch for those of us in the OV. Timing works out. Ok maybe not the OV verbatim... moisture and lapse rates are spent. Probably further southwest. Our severe weather season is over. I'm going into summer mode. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Our severe weather season is over. I'm going into summer mode. Lol Our severe weather season goes through July to be fair. Tornado season is winding down, though we still have like a month left Edited May 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Our severe weather season goes through July to be fair. Tornado season is winding down though Seems like it's been so hard to have even a regular storm season here the past several years. There was a time when severe weather season was pretty much guaranteed in the OV. Now I am lucky to even get a rumble of thunder. Lol Edited May 17, 2022 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) 56 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Seems like it's been so hard to have even a regular storm season here the past several years. There was a time when severe weather season was pretty much guaranteed in the OV. Now I am lucky to even get a rumble of thunder. Lol Thankfully the summer is pretty much guaranteed Also... this May has been very June-like. MCS season off to a strong start. Edited May 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) Still have a large remnant(?) MCS for the OV for Wednesday. W KY/SW IN/S IL have the greatest parameters but stay dry. Never know with MCSs/MCVs, so worth keeping an eye on. Edited May 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) NAM makes a shift northeast from18z back to something kinda similar to 6z and 12z, taking the severe threat into SE IN. Pretty nasty sounding in southern Indiana just ahead of a likely supercell. I always feel stupid tilting my head to see hodographs like this from normal supercell hodograph perspective (e.g., southerly surface winds/westerly aloft). It helps though. Edited May 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 17, 2022 SREF is kinda generous with the northeastward extent imo. Good reminder, though, that anyone in the southern half of Indiana/western half of Ohio shouldn't sleep on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) 26 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: SREF is kinda generous with the northeastward extent imo. Good reminder, though, that anyone in the southern half of Indiana/western half of Ohio shouldn't sleep on this. So tricky with these types of setups Edited May 17, 2022 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Impressive supercell in NC Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 842 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0838 PM TORNADO 2 SE NEW BERN 35.10N 77.05W 05/16/2022 CRAVEN NC TRAINED SPOTTER TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR EXIT 416 (PEMBROOKE ROAD) ON HIGHWAY 55 IN NEW BERN. REPORTED POWER FLASHES AND DEBRIS IN THE AIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 17, 2022 GFS is quite a bit further southwest than NAM, but brings the severe threat northeast for Thursday. So uncertainty is.... there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 The gfs has totally changed the orientation of the trough for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 New Day-1 convective outlook: enhanced, for wind/hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 17, 2022 Tstorm watches are up for the mini-MCS in IA/N MO as well as for the soon-to-be MCS in KS/S NE. Currently high-based/low moisture storms but will gradually move into decent moisture. Although the sun will have set and it should be a MCS by then, should be some tornado threat. 18z HRRR hinted at what I suspect is gonna be the case tomorrow: a discrete cell develops on the outflow boundary left behind by the MCV to develop tonight. Would be a low-predictability event for a part of western to central Kentucky with a supercell tornado threat with damaging wind/hail too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 (edited) Definitely watching this supercell NW of Topeka. Its potential keeps increasing as it keeps looking more discrete and organized Edited May 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 (edited) Struggling to organize because there’s a lot of convection forming on this apparent boundary. Wouldn’t be surprised if a supercell does become dominant. At this point it’s pretty reasonable to expect a HP supercell if it does happen Edited May 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Struggling to organize because there’s a lot of convection forming on this apparent boundary. Wouldn’t be surprised if a supercell does become dominant. At this point it’s pretty reasonable to expect a HP supercell if it does happen Producing golf ball hail. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Topeka KS 820 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022 KSC027-161-180130- /O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-220518T0130Z/ Riley-Clay- 820 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES... At 818 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Riley, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Public. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Clay Center, Wakefield, Riley, Leonardville, Randolph, Green and Keats. At 805 pm...golfball size hail was reported 8 miles south of Clay Center. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3937 9724 3950 9690 3943 9672 3942 9672 3940 9673 3938 9670 3921 9666 3921 9685 3922 9685 3922 9696 3921 9696 3920 9727 TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 262DEG 19KT 3932 9685 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 Nice sounding at Topeka. Pretty good representation of the environment of this cluster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 Possible supercell developing within a developing MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 74mph winds and half dollar hail reported with the KS cell. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Topeka KS 829 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022 KSC027-041-061-149-161-197-180145- /O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-220518T0145Z/ Dickinson-Geary-Riley-Wabaunsee-Pottawatomie-Clay- 829 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL DICKINSON...NORTHERN GEARY...SOUTHERN RILEY... NORTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE...SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES... At 828 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Milford, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Public. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. At 822 PM...the public reported a wind gust of 74 mph and half dollar size hail. Locations impacted include... Manhattan, Junction City, Wamego, Ogden, Wakefield, St. George, Milford, Louisville, Milford Lake and Keats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2022 No question anymore about what’s gonna evolve from this area. Lots of motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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