May 7-28, 2022 | Severe Weather/MCS Sequence

[ClicheVortex2014]

Don't have 5 sighail parameter on mesoanalysis very often but 5000+ sbcape and 50 knots effective shear would do it. Man, if storms can get going it'll be explosive

Edited May 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Wednesday through Saturday is looking interesting and has my attention 

[StormfanaticInd]

For Friday 🤔

[StormfanaticInd]

Not liking my chances for severe weather today. 😒 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Yay erroneous soundings

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Cells are popping in NE OK. Significant hail parameter is down to 2-3 in the area so that's an improvement but still supportive of >2" diameter hail. The western supercell went from literally nothing on radar to a severe warning in ~24 minutes. The fastest I remember seeing is in the upper teens so this is pretty impressive

Edited May 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

SPC just did an unscheduled day 1 update to add a 5% tornado area for E OK. Has to do with the fact that cells have indeed popped, and (not stated; in my opinion) the potential for outflow boundary interaction/nocturnal LLJ. While they were at it, they adjusted probabilities for those whose severe threats are over. Wouldn't have been surprised if they upgraded to 45% hatched hail for E OK, too.

Edited May 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Well, this is what happens when you have 5000+ sbcape/<-10 LI

[Neoncyclone]

Perfect summer storms in SE IL, little penny-nickel sized hail, lots of lightning and lots of rain. Love it

[ClicheVortex2014]

A couple of pretty decent mesos/decent looking supercells. Kinda scary considering the nocturnal LLJ is gonna kick in in an hour or two.

Edited May 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

The only supercell that's still thriving has a strengthening meso but it's eating a lot of cells as it moves almost due south.

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

The only supercell that's still thriving has a strengthening meso but it's eating a lot of cells as it moves almost due south.

Warned for 3" hail/70 mph winds

[Chinook]

40 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Warned for 3" hail/70 mph winds

a vertical slice with the high reflectivity over 60 dBz high up

 

 

close to Muskogee OK

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Chinook

[StormfanaticInd]

Feels like Indiana just finds ways to bust. Lol just might get a shower tonight 🙄

[NWOhioChaser]

15 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Feels like Indiana just finds ways to bust. Lol just might get a shower tonight 🙄

At least well be able to see the eclipse....oh wait..🙄 

Shit pisses me off 

[Neoncyclone]

somehow the clouds cleared out here in SE Il just went out to see it

[ElectricStorm]

Was busy today so couldn't really post. Was in the enhanced risk for wind/hail today but the first round stayed way east in AR and the second round couldn't develop until it got south of me. I'm actually glad everything missed me since it would have ruined our golf round... 

Anyway looks like a solid amount of wind/hail reports so it seems like this was a pretty active day. Looking ahead the Day 6 slight risk certainly has my attention, but I think Thursday could get pretty interesting here as well unfortunately, the GFS seems to have a lesser cap issue than on previous runs. I'm really hoping we don't see anything here Thurs...

Also tomorrow in the northeast is looking pretty dangerous, not to often you see an enhanced risk up there 

Edited May 16, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

Still surprised GFS is looking like this for Thursday. Unlike what I thought originally, it seems this is a legit shortwave (existence is, strength in question) 

Definitely feels like a MCS event but who knows this time of year.

 

Extreme SE IN. -12 LI thanks to nearly 8C/km mid-level lapse rates with more than enough shear for a MCS

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Central Illinois]

SPC still mentioning pretty good chance of severe weather towards the end of the week across the Midwest

Edited May 16, 2022 by Central Illinois

[cer5059]

In the enhanced area for today up in the northeast. Any idea what to expect?

[snowlover2]

ILN still very concerned with Wednesday through Friday night. Mentions of all severe modes and flooding during that period.

Quote

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An active weather pattern is expected for the start of the long term
period as several quickly-moving S/Ws track E across the OH Vly
within the quasi-zonal/NW flow atop a quasi-stationary WNW-ESE
oriented LL frontal boundary.

The first of several midlevel disturbances will track E through the
OH Vly late Tuesday night into the day on Wednesday. This will
promote the development of some convection toward daybreak Wednesday
and beyond, which will be primarily elevated in nature until better
LL destabilization can occur later into the day on Wednesday
from the SW. This initial batch of SHRA, with perhaps a rumble
of thunder or two, is likely to move quickly through the ILN FA
through the first half of the day Wednesday. It will leave in
its wake a trailing WNW- ESE oriented baroclinic zone draped
across the southern OH Vly, potentially very close to the OH
Rvr. As the initial S/W pulls E, better sfc theta-e advection
will become established by late Wednesday afternoon through the
evening hours, with LL destabilization efforts underway,
initially for SW parts of the local area during this time frame.


There remain quite a few of uncertainties in the fcst at these time
ranges, but the setup for active weather locally does seem to carry
with it some degree of concern for episodic SHRA/TSRA from Wednesday
evening through even the day on Thursday. Not only would this
portend the potential for one or more episodes of storms, but also
the risk for repeated convectively-driven heavy rain leading to
hydro concerns as well. The better shear profiles are likely to
evolve Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning as LL
destabilization continues to increase from SW to NE during this time
frame. The primary source for lift on Wednesday evening/night will
be the convergent axis stretching from WNW to ESE across southern
IN/OH and N KY. Although the best H8 LLJ will be pulling E toward
later Wednesday evening/night, there will still be some subtle
convergence along the LL boundary amidst an environment of
increasing LL moisture advection/convergence. And as the initial S/W
energy pulls E, a better northward surge of deeper moisture will
commence for the second half of the day Wednesday, especially across
far S/SW parts of the OH Vly. One of the main questions that remains
for Wednesday evening/night is just how much forcing/lift will
evolve, which will ultimately dictate the degree to which convection
can reinitiate or be sustained along the aforementioned boundary.
One thing that does appear to be a concern is the potential for
renewed/repeated convection Wednesday evening/night near the
boundary with a steering-layer flow that will largely overlap the LL
boundary and source lift while sfc inflow into the boundary will
remain normal to it. This creates a scenario where training of
convection may be favored, potentially in the form of one or more
convective complexes, suggesting a hydro concern may very well come
into play. Of course, the details of where this would be favored are
far from certain at this point. There does remain some latitudinal
variability in the guidance regarding where this boundary will set
up, but it would appear that locales near/south of the OH Rvr would
be more in-line for this potential at this juncture. The signal is
certainly there for one or more convective complexes Wednesday
evening/night across the southern OH Vly, with the hydro threats
more of a concern locally than the severe threat with the best LL
thermodynamic environment staying in the far south, or potentially
just south, of the ILN FA.

With the potential for numerous SHRA/TSRA within a narrow WNW-ESE
corridor in the southern third or quarter of the ILN FA Wednesday
evening/night, the setup for the daytime Thursday becomes even more
uncertain, especially with questions regarding presence of a source
of lift and whether the cap can hold. One thing that does appear to
be likely is the continued theta-e advection N further into the ILN
FA, with high, to potentially extreme, instby developing during the
daytime period. The intricacies of how this will all unfold are far
from clear at this juncture. But... there appears to be enough
overlap in the shear/instby parameter spaces to yield more than just
a little concern for one or more rounds of strong to severe storms,
if the nosing of the LLJ by midday can promote enough lift to
generate some convective initiation. The overall pattern/setup is
more than favorable for a severe weather episode during this time
frame, but the degree to which this evolves, especially regarding
coverage of storms, will take some time to reveal itself. Very
bluntly, there is some guidance that shows a window for sufficient
overlap of high instby amidst sufficient deep-layer speed and
directional shear to suggest that all severe hazards, including
flooding, may come into play at one time or another Thursday,
particularly for locales south of the I-70 corridor. The caveat is
whether the environment becomes uncapped or there is sufficient
lift to overcome it. It could end up being a scenario where we
progress into the morning on Thursday and are still not certain
whether the cap will be overcome. Nevertheless, the signal is
strong enough that felt it is prudent to start mention in the
HWO, at least in a broad sense to begin with.

By later Thursday evening into the night, midlevel height rises will
commence locally as the trof across the upper Midwest digs into the
central plains. This amplifying midlevel ridge axis will position
itself across the heart of the ILN FA Friday, favoring drier, but
certainly plenty warm and humid, conditions for the final workweek
of the week. Friday looks to be the warmest and most uncomfortable
day of the week, with temps likely reaching into the upper 80s with
DPs in the mid/upper 60s. Guidance still differs quite a bit of
variation regarding the timing of the front through the ILN FA
sometime in the Friday night through Saturday time frame. Either
way, the FROPA will offer renewed chances for SHRA/TSRA pretty much
everywhere before drier and cooler conditions filter in late on
Saturday in the post frontal environment. While there certainly
could be a strong to severe storm potential with the FROPA, the more
concerning and pressing signal for Wednesday night (mainly hydro/low
end severe) and Thursday (hydro/severe) takes precedence at this
juncture. Will hold off on further discussions regarding the FROPA
Friday night/Saturday for now until the details come into better
focus.

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Depending on how things evolve really starting to watch Wednesday and Thursday. Parameters are pretty high potentially 

[Chinook]

I don't know if a lot of people are interested in talking about E Coast severe weather, but there is a rare tornado warning over the Catskill Mountains of NY, close to Pennsylvania.

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Chinook

[StretchCT]

12 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I don't know if a lot of people are interested in talking about E Coast severe weather, but there is a rare tornado warning over the Catskill Mountains of NY, close to Pennsylvania.

 

I'm following it on daily obs, too lazy to open a new thread.  Didn't seem that great of a severe opp this morning.  There's a suspicious cell NW of Gloversville too.  

[Chinook]

Now there is a storm next to Lowville with a tornado warning. This is the area of the Tug Hill, famous for snow.