May 7-28, 2022 | Severe Weather/MCS Sequence

[ClicheVortex2014]

Storm development in this area should be fun to watch. Can’t go wrong with two outflow boundaries clashing

[snowlover2]

7 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Outflow boundary has arrived. Pretty damn strong winds with it… much stronger than I was expecting. At the moment, all that warm air is being viciously pushed up. Storms are being made

Damn close to opening up here. Got some wind/thunder/lightning. Just need the rain/small hail.

[Cincysnow]

10 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Outflow boundary has arrived. Pretty damn strong winds with it… much stronger than I was expecting. 

Same here, could see clouds of pollen blowing out of the trees

[snowlover2]

Not a shocker.

Quote

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
649 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

OHC113-150200-
/O.NEW.KILN.FA.Y.0030.220514T2249Z-220515T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Montgomery OH-
649 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of West Central Ohio, including the following
  county, Montgomery.

* WHEN...Until 1000 PM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
  Water over roadways.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 649 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to
    thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
    shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of
    rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1
    inch are possible.
  - Some locations that may experience flooding include...
    Dayton, Kettering, Huber Heights, Trotwood, Vandalia,
    Englewood, Moraine, Oakwood, Riverside, Clayton, Union,
    Brookville, New Lebanon, Shiloh, Northview, Fort Mckinley,
    Drexel and Pyrmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Keep children away from storm drains, culverts, creeks and streams.
Water levels can rise rapidly and sweep children away.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

To report flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit
your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 8447 3989 8427 3988 8414 3972 8417
      3975 8447


$$

Coniglio

 

 

[junior]

Gotta love watching storm development right on top of you.

[snowlover2]

Rain has started here but nothing too heavy yet.

[ClicheVortex2014]

*jaws theme music*

[junior]

Maybe one or 2 drops here but like 0.25 miles away from a waterfall. Quite the lightning show and a greenish tinge to the clouds too.

Edited May 14, 2022 by junior

[FortySixAnd32]

Backflow and Outflow about to collide!!! Awesome!!!!

[junior]

I'm literally in the only spot in Beavercreek where there's no rain but surrounded by waterfalls and CTGs

[Bman10]

2 minutes ago, junior said:

I'm literally in the only spot in Beavercreek where there's no rain but surrounded by waterfalls and CTGs

Same same . Wtf. This kinda BS! Lmao 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Heaviest of the rain kinda skipped over me but it's fine. Wasn't expecting anything today

[ClicheVortex2014]

Bout to see an outflow boundary clash

[snowlover2]

9 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Heaviest of the rain kinda skipped over me but it's fine. Wasn't expecting anything today

Pretty much same here. That cell blew up over Beavercreek and the one slowly crawling at me weakened. Still had a steady rain with thunder/lightning/wind so i'll still take it.

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Pretty much same here. That cell blew up over Beavercreek and the one slowly crawling at me weakened. Still had a steady rain with thunder/lightning/wind so i'll still take it.

Little bit early in the severe weather season for this kind of event for my taste but whatever. We still have plenty of time. And it's better than nothing

[Neoncyclone]

Yes it's happening!! Maybe even some hail to my south

 

[junior]

At least we get some good ole cold pool rains with the occasional lightning strike every 20 ish minutes. 😀

[ClicheVortex2014]

Pretty intense MCS tomorrow late morning/early afternoon. Some supercells in E OK, too. HRRR has almost a 30 degree dew point depression but that seems really excessive. Won't be surprised to see a 20 degree Ttd. Probably some LP supercells with hail/significant wind threat.

 

Edited May 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

2 hours ago, junior said:

I'm literally in the only spot in Beavercreek where there's no rain but surrounded by waterfalls and CTGs

Here is the radar-estimated rainfall for the Dayton metro, ranging from 0.15" to 3.50" (right?) by Clayton and Phillipsburg, north of I-70.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

8 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Never change, NAM... never change.

 

 

NAM still has it after 3 runs. Lock it in.

Just joking by the way

Edited May 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

New day 1 still enhanced for wind but also a hatched for hail added.

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022  
  
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST  
KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO  
VALLEY TODAY. SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE  
THE PRIMARY THREATS, WITH THE GREATEST RISK EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST  
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS. ISOLATED STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY TODAY, AND  
EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE  
LOW WILL PERSIST OVER OK INTO THE EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES  
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, OZARK PLATEAU, AND MIDWEST.  
FURTHER WEST, A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE  
INTERIOR NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.   
   
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU  
  
A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KS/OK  
INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS  
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS  
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.   
  
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THIS  
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN KS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NE. HAIL AND PERHAPS  
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. THIS  
CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN  
CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED THE  
COLD FRONT. STEEP LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE-TO-STRONG  
BUOYANCY WILL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION INTO THE  
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE  
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO A LARGER PORTION  
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK.   
  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM  
STRUCTURES AS NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY.  
ANY WELL-ORGANIZED MCS THAT CAN EVOLVE AND MOVE THROUGH THE WARM  
SECTOR FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE A  
SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC  
PROFILES IN PLACE. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND  
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH ANY SUSTAINED  
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW  
AND/OR THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT. WIND AND/OR HAIL PROBABILITIES MAY  
NEED TO BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS, DEPENDING ON  
SHORTER-TERM OBSERVATIONAL AND GUIDANCE TRENDS.   
   
..MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY  
  
THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY-DAY MCS DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST LEADS TO  
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
HOWEVER, MODERATE BUOYANCY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND  
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON,  
POTENTIALLY SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY BY EVENING.  
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE  
PRIMARY THREATS IN THIS AREA.    
   
..NORTHWEST  
  
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CONVECTION IS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WA  
AND NORTHEAST OR. BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AT BEST (MLCAPE  
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS), BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL  
SUPPORT A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND/OR SUPERCELLS WHICH COULD  
POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK. SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL  
SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF ID AND PERHAPS WESTERN MT BEFORE A GENERAL  
WEAKENING TREND LATER TONIGHT.   
   
..NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC  
  
DIURNAL HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAK  
SHEAR AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT STORM INTENSITY,  
BUT A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR.  
  
..DEAN/BENTLEY.. 05/15/2022  

 

 

[NWOhioChaser]

I don't want this today. A bunch of stupid convective debris from a probable weakening storm to hinder my views of the eclipse tonight? No thanks. Take that B.S somewhere else!

Edited May 15, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[snowlover2]

Day 5 and 6 areas highlighted for parts of the GL/MS Valley/OH Valley.

Quote

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0405 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

   Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Global models appear to be in reasonably good agreement through Day
   6 across the U.S., moving a mid-level trough out of the Gulf of
   Alaska and into/across the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Wednesday, and
   then eastward into the northern Plains Day 5/Thursday, and then the
   Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and into Ontario Day 6/Friday.

   As the upper system advances, a cold front is forecast to emerge
   from the northern Rockies into/across the northern and eventually
   the central Plains.  Near this front and the evolving surface low,
   focused ascent across the north-central States/Upper Mississippi
   Valley region will likely result in afternoon/evening severe storms.
   Along with potential for large hail and damaging winds, a few
   tornadoes are also expected, given flow expected to veer favorably
   through the lower half of the troposphere, while increasing in
   magnitude with height, suggesting shear favorable for supercells.

   Some severe risk may also evolve eastward across the Midwest/Ohio
   Valley region, as a weak mid-level disturbance moves through
   westerly flow aloft, near a weak west-to-east baroclinic zone. 
   However, with the north-south positioning of this boundary
   uncertain, and differing rather substantially in various models,
   will not highlight this more uncertain risk with a 15% area at this
   time.  

   Steady advance of the upper trough, and associated cold front, will
   continue Day 6, with the boundary forecast to extend from the Upper
   Great Lakes to the southern Plains through the afternoon.  Once
   again, a favorably moist/destabilizing warm sector will lead to
   severe-storm development near and ahead of the front, as the eastern
   fringe of stronger southwesterlies aloft spread atop the frontal
   zone, yield shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms.  Large
   hail and damaging winds would appear to be the primary risks, along
   with some potential for tornadoes.

   As model solutions deviate Day 7, mainly with respect to the portion
   of the trough trailing southward out of eastern Canada into the
   U.S., convective evolution becomes more uncertain, precluding any
   areal highlights through the end of the period.

   ..Goss.. 05/15/2022

 

 

[snowlover2]

ILN AFD concerning tonight and they also seem to be really interested about Thursday.

Quote

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1049 AM EDT Sun May 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures continue today with another round of
showers and storms tonight before drier air filters in during
the day on Monday and persists through Tuesday. An unsettled
pattern resumes midweek and beyond as several rounds of showers
and storms are expected for the second half of the workweek as
more humid air builds into the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Overnight fog has improved with heating as the boundary layer
mixes out.

Mid level shortwave to dig southeast from the Mid MS Valley
today and into the Great Lakes tonight. Model solutions showing
drier surface dewpoints around 50F developing across the
northwest as the airmass becomes well mixed later today. This
will act to limit the instability with only marginal instability
expected. With a lack of favorable forcing until late evening
and given unfavorable thermo environment have slowed pcpn down
with the area expected to remain dry during the daylight hours.

In warm sector with good sunshine have continued to go on the
warm side of guidance envelope with highs generally in the mid
80s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Attention this evening will quickly turn to the approach of a
fairly potent S/W, which will push E through the region during
the overnight hours. Aloft, H5 diffluence will promote large
scale ascent amidst large-scale height falls. Closer to the sfc,
a rather broad frontal boundary will track E through the region
during the overnight hours, with some strengthening LL
convergence contributing to additional lift.

By this evening, expect widespread convection to be well
underway initially off to the W of the ILN FA across parts of
MO/IL/IN. As the system pushes E through late evening into the
overnight, the forcing and deeper-layer shear will gradually
increase, with an uptick in coverage of convection expected
between 00z-06z as it nudges into the far western stretches of
the local area.

Deep-layer shear will increase sufficiently during the late
evening into the overnight, with 0-6km bulk shear on the order
of 40-50kts by 06z. This will occur with a SW-to-NE oriented
frontal boundary sagging to the SE, with some LL convergence
along the sharpening trof axis. One of the main questions that
exists at this juncture is the degree to which SB instby can be
maintained/increased deeper into the overnight period. Many
solutions suggest that a near-sfc inversion will be able to
develop, potentially hindering, at least somewhat, the
potential for stronger gusts to be translated down to the ground
with any of the stronger cores. The shear is no doubt
sufficient for organized convection, but the LL thermodynamic
environment just isn`t ideal for a widespread severe threat to
evolve. There are, of course, a few fcst soundings, particularly
on the NAM, where SB instby is able to be maintained a bit
more, even past 06z through most of the local area coincident
with the best large-scale lift and convective coverage. But...
this seems to be on the outlier of solutions, with most guidance
suggesting a near-sfc stable layer that would keep most of the
convection elevated in nature and help limit the severe
potential locally. This is due, in part, to the drying of the LL
environment in the afternoon/evening, with a pool of drier air
residing across most of the local area into the early overnight
period. And there isn`t any substantial theta-e/moisture
advection to overcome this. Yes, there may be a few storms that
produce gusty winds, but the lack of a stronger signal regarding
the LL thermodynamic environment, combined with a LL bulk shear
vector orientation that won`t have a ton of cross-boundary
component, suggests that the severe threat is much more on the
marginal side than anything else. Feel that our thinking is in-
line with the "trimmed back" SLGHT risk area to more across the
far W/SW edges of the ILN FA where activity will be moving
through earlier (albeit most likely still after 03z) in a
slightly more favorable thermodynamic environment. We may end up
with a scenario where most of the widespread pcpn is actually
just "behind" the sfc boundary where winds will turn more N/NW.
There won`t be a sharp sfc moisture or temp gradient on the
leading edge, once again suggesting a good deal of an elevated
component to this activity. The setup of NW sfc winds limiting
inflow into the updrafts, with sfc DPs rebounding only meagerly
from the lower 50s to mid/upper 50s (without pronounced theta-e
advection) just doesn`t stand out in any manner for anything
more than a marginal setup for a few gusty showers/storms.

Most spots will see some rainfall -- potentially on the order of
a third to half of an inch in most locales -- but storm motion
will be quick enough to the ENE, without much training expected,
to limit the heavy rain/flooding threat. Drier conditions
evolve toward daybreak and beyond from W to E.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mean trough begins to propagate east of the Ohio Valley Monday
night. Downstream of an H5 ridge, high pressure will remain in
control through Tuesday and offer dry and pleasant conditions. Won`t
see a much of a rebound in moisture levels on Tuesday quite yet -
allowing dewpoints to remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Additionally, locations along/north of I-70 have a chance of
observing high temps in the upper 60s, with low to mid 70s
elsewhere.

On Wednesday, the H5 ridge dampens and flow becomes more quasi-zonal
over the Midwest. Embedded within this flow pattern will be several
shortwaves that ripple through. This will provide some upper-level
ascent, allowing scattered showers and storms to develop early in
the day. Pcpn remains favored into Wednesday night, especially
across the southern portions of our fa.

Thursday will be an interesting day to monitor as shortwave energy
continues to move through aloft. Lower in the troposphere, the
presence of a LLJ will provide an enhanced surge of warmer and more
saturated air into our fa. There still remains some differences in
long-range models as to where the LLJ aligns itself, which will have
implications on where the best instability and lapse rates will
form. Still a bit too early to truly diagnose the potential threats
for the day, but the overall pattern/setup does offer some
interesting features that will need to be closely monitored.

Once we progress into Friday, pretty good signal in long-range
models showing an amplified H5 ridge building over the eastern
CONUS. While pcpn chances will be lower on Friday, still cannot
completely rule out the potential for diurnal showers/storms
developing. As we progress into Saturday, a broad H5 trough begins
to push the ridge eastward. This may allow for showers and storms to
remain in the forecast on Saturday, especially across the western
portions of our CWA.

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

I was surprised about days 5-6. I also haven't paid much attention to the medium range in a while. 

GFS is kinda crazy for Thursday but a lot of it has to do with GFS probably going too crazy with convection.