Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 14, 2022 (edited) Never change, NAM... never change. Edited May 14, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Cells are popping in C IN/SW OH/N KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Slight risk for tomorrow for me😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0756 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Areas affected...Eastern Lower MI..Eastern IN...Western OH...Far Northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141807Z - 142030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts may occur this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A similar thermodynamic environment covers the region from eastern Lower MI southward into eastern IN/western OH, with temperatures in the low/mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s. This air mass has destabilized amid diurnal heating, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop as a weak front approaches. Given the lack of stronger vertical shear, a predominantly multicellular, outflow-dominant mode is anticipated. Some forward-propagation along storm outflows may occur, but updraft duration should remain limited. A few damaging wind gusts may occur with any more robust updrafts, particularly if updraft augmentation occurs as a result of storm mergers. Overall severe coverage is expected to be limited. ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/14/2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 14, 2022 Mesoscale Discussion 0756 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Areas affected...Eastern Lower MI..Eastern IN...Western OH...Far Northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141807Z - 142030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts may occur this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A similar thermodynamic environment covers the region from eastern Lower MI southward into eastern IN/western OH, with temperatures in the low/mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s. This air mass has destabilized amid diurnal heating, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop as a weak front approaches. Given the lack of stronger vertical shear, a predominantly multicellular, outflow-dominant mode is anticipated. Some forward-propagation along storm outflows may occur, but updraft duration should remain limited. A few damaging wind gusts may occur with any more robust updrafts, particularly if updraft augmentation occurs as a result of storm mergers. Overall severe coverage is expected to be limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 (edited) Ha! I came here to post the exact same thing! Edit: I’ll be darned if one didn’t pop though… Edited May 14, 2022 by NWsnowhio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 ILN latest. Quote AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 359 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather pattern this weekend with scattered showers and storms into this evening and again Sunday night. Slightly cooler and drier air filters in for the start of the workweek before additional chances for storms arrive midweek and beyond as warmer and more humid air returns to the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Diurnal heating combined with some increase in low level moisture has result in moderate instability across the area this afternoon. Mid level support is limited with rather light wind flow indicated on area soundings. Disorganized -- slow moving storms to continue into this evening. Storms to our west, showing a little better organization invof of a weak front to work into west central Ohio and then weaken with the loss of heating. DCAPE values up to 1000 J/KG. Given the lack of favorable wind flow for good organization -- the main threat will be strong to damaging winds, heavy rain due to the slow movement and some small hail. The airmass will quickly stabilize by late this evening with convection weakening and shifting southeast of ILN/s area. Some clearing is expected late which could lead to the some patchy fog development. Lows tonight to range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mid level shortwave to dig southeast from the northern plains across the Mid MS Valley Sunday and into the Great Lakes Sunday night. In warm sector moderate instability develops Sunday afternoon but favorable forcing is not present. Some of the forecast soundings indicate a cap that may inhibit convective development during the daylight hours. Have limited any mention of thunderstorms to slight chance late in the day. Have opted to go a little warmer than NBM guidance for highs. Expect warm highs in the lower and middle 80s. Favorable forcing and deeper-layer shear develops late Sunday evening into the overnight hours, as the shortwave approaches from the west. Have increased pops to categorical for the most favored time for storms late evening/overnight. Uncertainty exists regarding the amount of instability that will remain and the potential for strong to severe storms. Forecast soundings are showing a near-sfc inversion, and elevated instby by the time the most favorable lift comes into play. This will work to limit severe potential. Will continue to mention this potential with the best chance in our far west as convection weakens as it tracks across ILN/s FA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Monday morning, a surface cold front will be moving southeast through the ILN CWA, as the axis of a mid-level shortwave will already be just past the forecast area. The main period of convective potential will already be done by 12Z, but until the surface front has passed, there will still be some chance of showers for the area -- ending west-to-east through the morning and early afternoon. NW flow behind the front will advect in a drier and cooler air mass, with skies eventually clearing during the day. Despite the change in air mass and the NW winds, temperatures will remain close to normal, with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Some gusts to around 20-25 knots look possible, so winds are slightly higher than the model blend. A flatter mid-level pattern will set up across the Ohio Valley going into the middle of the week, while a broad area of surface high pressure will gradually drift eastward on Tuesday and into Wednesday. This will keep surface flow light and generally with a northerly component, so temperatures will likely only change slightly in the Mon-Tue-Wed time frame -- still remaining in the 70s. The situation aloft will be a little different, as the axis of a ridge begins to move into the area, and some theta-e advection at 850mb and above begins as early as Tuesday night. More robust moisture advection will pick up at lower levels on Wednesday and into Wednesday night, with some kind of west-to-east boundary establishing itself across the Ohio Valley. As this setup combines with some fast-moving shortwaves moving across the region, atop a low-amplitude southeastern ridge, occasional shower/storm chances are expected from late Tuesday night through the end of the week. With a fast-moving upper pattern and multiple shortwaves, confidence in exact timing for the highest precipitation chances is uncertain, though it appears some of the higher chances may be on Wednesday night. It is also uncertain if there will be a favorable overlap of shear and instability during this time period, but it appears possible, especially as SBCAPE begins to ramp up on Thursday. Thus, this period will need to be watched for some strong storm potential. The stronger surface-based warm advection beginning on Thursday will continue into Friday and Saturday, as deep-layer southwesterly flow sets up over the ILN CWA. This looks like it may lead to diminishing precipitation chances from Thursday to Friday to Saturday, as the pattern becomes one that supports temperatures rising above normal. In fact, the strength of the flow supports a forecast a little above the model blend, and max temps were increases lightly for all three days from Thu-Fri-Sat. Mid to upper 80s are expected Friday and Saturday, with an outside chance at some 90 degree readings in the southern part of the forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 (edited) Nothing in the atmosphere to get these storms movin. Sooo, they've been sitting here for like 3 hours now. Edited May 14, 2022 by NWOhioChaser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 14, 2022 71 dBz reflectivity northwest of Dayton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: 71 dBz reflectivity northwest of Dayton SWS out on it. Quote Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 529 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 OHZ042-051-060-061-142200- Montgomery OH-Darke OH-Preble OH-Miami OH- 529 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PREBLE, SOUTHEASTERN DARKE, NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT... At 529 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lewisburg, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor objects. Locations impacted include... Trotwood, Englewood, West Milton, Lewisburg, Clayton, Union, Brookville, Phillipsburg, Verona, Laura, Pitsburg, Potsdam, Gordon, Northview, Pyrmont and Garland. This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 15 and 30. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely. && LAT...LON 3986 8459 4001 8449 3997 8426 3982 8426 3974 8434 TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 295DEG 12KT 3992 8446 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH $$ Hatzos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 My view of the cell to the northwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Looking more ominous. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 14, 2022 Coverage is really increasing now. Got less than 2 hours before these storms start dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 14, 2022 yikes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Lots of OFBS.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 I'll be mad if I can't catch at least a pop-up storm off this boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Starting to hear a little thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 SWS for Dayton area. Quote Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 620 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 OHZ042-051-060-061-142245- Montgomery OH-Darke OH-Preble OH-Miami OH- 620 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN PREBLE, SOUTHEASTERN DARKE, MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT... At 620 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located in portions of Preble, Darke, Montgomery, and Miami counties, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor objects. Locations impacted include... Dayton, Troy, Trotwood, Miamisburg, Vandalia, Englewood, Tipp City, Eaton, Moraine, Carlisle, West Milton, West Carrollton, Camden, Lewisburg, West Alexandria, Gratis, Clayton, Union, Brookville and Germantown. This includes the following Interstates... I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 13 and 34. I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 61 and 73. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely. && LAT...LON 3960 8468 4003 8451 4002 8413 3959 8428 TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 297DEG 17KT 3979 8448 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Feels like a summer afternoon with all these pop up thunderstorms Came here to post this. Loving it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 14, 2022 Cmon outflow boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Slowly getting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 (edited) Storms are moving soooo slooooow. Took 3.5 hours for the storm to move this far...incredibly frustrating. Good for some though. Shit is going to happen again tomorrow night during the eclipse. @$#! Edited May 14, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 14, 2022 (edited) That strong, stationary outflow boundary is weird enough… but that northward advancing boundary is another thing. I wonder if that was birds Edited May 14, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 29 minutes ago, junior said: Lots of OFBS.. 13 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Cmon outflow boundary Can clearly see it here: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 14, 2022 (edited) Outflow boundary has arrived. Pretty damn strong winds with it… much stronger than I was expecting. Edited May 14, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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