Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2022 Looks like we have a towering cumulus westish of Wichita 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 New tor watch up for KS with some mean probs. 70/60 tor, 80/20 wind, 80/70 hail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Isolated but intense supercell thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening across the watch area. Any storm that forms and persists will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Beatrice NE to 70 miles southeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 157... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 Quote Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (70%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes Mod (60%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (20%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (70%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2022 The squall in Nebraska is coming along nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 (edited) I'm being impatient but 20z HRRR features several supercells initiating in C Oklahoma Looks like one becomes dominant according to this run. Edited April 29, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2022 What. A. Dryline. Might hit 100 degrees immediately west of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 Some pretty crazy fires in NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2022 Cumulus starting to build here. Went to the doctor and I have an ear infection so I'll definitely be watching from home today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 That cap is holding strong so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2022 👀 Mesoscale Discussion 0583 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Areas affected...Parts of western/central Oklahoma and northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 292146Z - 292245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...There is increasing confidence in a storm or two initiating along the dryline in western Oklahoma. Very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. A tornado watch will likely be needed shortly. DISCUSSION...Temperatures west of the dryline Oklahoma and northwest Texas have risen to the upper 90s F to around 100 F near Altus, OK. Visible satellite continues to show towering cumulus developing from near Frederick, OK to near Watonga, OK. Given the nearly stationary nature of the dryline and the low-level parcel trajectories, it seems that residence time in the dryline circulation should be sufficient for a storm or two to develop this afternoon. Effective shear vectors are orthogonal to the boundary at 40-50 kts. Storms should be discrete. The 21Z OUN sounding showed a near 9 C/km lapse rate in the mid-levels. Furthermore, the capping inversion has weakened slightly. Very large hail will be a possibility. As dewpoints have largely remained in the mid/upper 60s F and the low-level jet expected to increase in central Oklahoma this evening, tornadoes, perhaps strong, are also possible. A tornado watch will likely be needed shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2022 Impressive dewpoint gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 Confirmed tornado on the KS/NE border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2022 Development still struggling in S-Central Kansas, CAP must be strong. We'll see if the storms in Central Kansas can get going or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 Russell KS measured a severe wind gust with 37 dew point, collapsing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2022 Topeka sounding is... something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Hastings NE 508 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 KSC147-NEC083-292230- /O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220429T2230Z/ Phillips KS-Harlan NE- 508 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN PHILLIPS AND SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTIES... At 508 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Long Island, or 19 miles northwest of Phillipsburg, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Phillips and southwestern Harlan Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4012 9939 3995 9945 4002 9963 4012 9962 TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 295DEG 15KT 3999 9952 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Topeka sounding is... something else That says OUN, Topeka's is still capped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 I'm now in a tor watch. 60/50 probs which is probably the highest I've been in in a slight risk. Looks like my earlier prediction of not seeing much here is going to be wrong unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2022 Just now, Ingyball said: That says OUN, Topeka's is still capped. Oh yeah. No idea why I said Topeka. That OUN sounding is crazy* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 Two cells near Hope, Kansas could really blow up to be the next big thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2022 oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2022 DVD sized hail lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 Don't think i've seen a watch mention up to 5" hail before. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwestern, central and northern Oklahoma * Effective this Friday afternoon from 500 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are expected to develop and move away from the dryline over the remainder of the afternoon. Any sustained storm(s) could offer tornadoes (potentially significant/EF2+), very large/damaging hail, and locally severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northeast of Ponca City OK to 35 miles south southeast of Fort Sill OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 157...WW 158... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Edwards 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 29, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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