April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[ClicheVortex2014]

8 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Yeah that's been the #1 analog on pretty much every run. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.  

(For those that may not be familiar with this day this is 5/29/04)

Huge severe weather day on the day after. Saturday not looking like it'll even get close to comparing to 5/30/04.

 

Definitely one of the most generous high risk days. Going back to what these outlooks literally mean, it's not a bad outlook. The bar has been set so high for high risks that this seems like kind of a 'eh' verification. We've definitely seen worse, anyway.

[ElectricStorm]

Another day that has consistently shown up in the analogs and I've seen mentioned by several people is 5/8/03, known for the F4 Moore tornado. Both 5/8/03 and 5/29/04 didn't see a whole lot of action in OK, but the storms that did form were explosive. Could be something similar to that tomorrow. 

You could add something like 5/19/13 to that list as well, although it doesn't explicitly show up in the analogs the general idea is the same. All of these are great examples of why you don't need a large number of storms to make an event memorable. 

[StormfanaticInd]

45 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Huge severe weather day on the day after. Saturday not looking like it'll even get close to comparing to 5/30/04.

 

Definitely one of the most generous high risk days. Going back to what these outlooks literally mean, it's not a bad outlook. The bar has been set so high for high risks that this seems like kind of a 'eh' verification. We've definitely seen worse, anyway.

There are some vague similarities to that day

[Chinook]

50 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Huge severe weather day on the day after. Saturday not looking like it'll even get close to comparing to 5/30/04.

 

Definitely one of the most generous high risk days. Going back to what these outlooks literally mean, it's not a bad outlook. The bar has been set so high for high risks that this seems like kind of a 'eh' verification. We've definitely seen worse, anyway.

I remember that. I think they had a tornado headed for the Indianapolis 500.

[Ingyball]

Most of the CAMs have come west with the dryline. Starting to think I may get a chance to at least spot from my apartment, might drive west a bit if the opportunity is there. We'll see. 

[StormfanaticInd]

19 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I remember that. I think they had a tornado headed for the Indianapolis 500.

Yeah, that was a scary day. The thing I remember most about that day is clouds moving in several different directions.  Sparked my curiosity in severe weather 

[StormfanaticInd]

1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible Friday afternoon into Friday night across portions of the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. A few strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are possible. ...Central/Southern Plains... Strong mid-level short-wave trough is currently digging east-southeast across the northern Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Latest model guidance suggest 70kt+ 500mb speed max will translate across southern CO during the afternoon before ejecting across KS into southeast NE by 06z. In response to this feature, lee surface cyclone will track across northwest KS into northeast KS by early evening. This evolution should encourage a well-defined dryline to mix into central KS-western OK by peak heating, trailing into northwest TX as post-dryline surface temperatures soar into the 90s. Early this morning, slow-moving MCS has propagated into southeast NE with scattered convection trailing west, just north of the KS border. This activity is expected to gradually wane/shift east by daybreak. Stronger-forced convection is now responding to the short wave over the NE Panhandle and this activity should gradually spread east through late morning. Latest thinking is low-level moisture should hold across southern NE, just north of the surface low as easterly boundary-layer component in the wake of the ongoing MCS will persist across this region. With upper 50s/lower 60s surface dew points expected into portions of northwest KS, supercells should readily develop ahead of the approaching short wave by early afternoon. An expanding corridor of scattered supercells should spread along the NE/KS border within a strongly sheared environment characterized by MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings strongly suggest very large hail, in excess of 3 inches may be noted within this steep lapse-rate environment. Additionally, a few tornadoes appear likely with this activity, possibly even a strong tornado. Farther south along the dryline, intense surface heating should lead to minimal CINH by 21z and isolated supercells are expected to develop across KS into northern OK where mid-level height falls are expected. Models continue to suggest low-mid 60s surface dew points will be noted immediately ahead of the dryline which will result in a narrow corridor of 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. While model guidance produces minimal/no precipitation along the dryline south of I40 over OK into TX, low-level convergence along the boundary may prove adequate for sustained updrafts at lower latitudes. This portion of the outlook is highly conditional, but if storms develop they will be severe with very large hail (3-4 inch possible) along with a threat for tornadoes. While storms along the dryline will likely remain isolated through early evening, additional convection should develop along the cold front as it surges across eastern KS into northeast OK during the overnight hours. Damaging winds may be more common with this more organized frontal convection.

Edited April 29, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[Iceresistance]

Slight Risk now in place for Oklahoma on 5/4 (Wednesday)

 

I don't recall seeing anything like this in the past 2 years . . .

[ElectricStorm]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

Slight Risk now in place for Oklahoma on 5/4 (Wednesday)

 

I don't recall seeing anything like this in the past 2 years . . .

More than that it's been awhile since early May was active. Even May 2019 started out slow for us although obviously that changed. 

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

More than that it's been awhile since early May was active. Even May 2019 started out slow for us although obviously that changed. 

May 2013 is also another good analog for "a slow start, but that does not mean it's going to be slow all month".

 

I think that May 2022 could be the most active in the Plains since 2019.

[ElectricStorm]

Wind driven moderate 

[StormfanaticInd]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

May 2013 is also another good analog for "a slow start, but that does not mean it's going to be slow all month".

 

I think that May 2022 could be the most active in the Plains since 2019.

Quite the pattern shaping up.

[ElectricStorm]

Oh

[Neoncyclone]

29 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Oh

12z 3km NAM shows initiation in N TX and C OK briefly as well. 

[ElectricStorm]

6 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

12z 3km NAM shows initiation in N TX and C OK briefly as well. 

Yeah all the CAMs except HRRR are firing supercells. My concern for OK is starting to go up now, although not sure how for south it can get. I still think KS could see a pretty big event and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 15 hatched tor area added. 

Edited April 29, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[Iceresistance]

17 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Yeah all the CAMs except HRRR are firing supercells. My concern for OK is starting to go up now, although not sure how for south it can get. I still think KS could see a pretty big event and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 15 hatched tor area added. 

HRRR does fire storms that are frontal influenced.

[NebraskaEgg]

Today certainly looks like it'll be a fun day for my area but I'm flying out at 2 PM and won't be back until November.

 

Have fun with the weather down here, everyone 🙂 Let's hope it's a good severe weather season.

[Iceresistance]

5 minutes ago, NebraskaEgg said:

Today certainly looks like it'll be a fun day for my area but I'm flying out at 2 PM and won't be back until November.

 

Have fun with the weather down here, everyone 🙂 Let's hope it's a good severe weather season.

Well, guess you have all summer to yourself in Alaska! Have a nice trip there!

[ElectricStorm]

Right on cue, 15 hatched added for KS 

[StormfanaticInd]

Can make the case for an enhanced risk for tomorrow in eastern illinois and western Indiana 

Edit. Unless morning convection and clouds are slow to move out

Edited April 29, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[Neoncyclone]

The HRRR is finally on board with at least one supercell in N OK, it's only one run but CAM's have all been in agreement for at least one or two supercells in OK except for HRRR until now.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

SPC meteorologist 

 

[Iceresistance]

10 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

SPC meteorologist 

 

So glad that I'm out of that area! There's also a lot of Wind there right now.

 

Current Observation location: Near Fort Smith, AR on I-40 Eastbound

 

[Iceresistance]

Also, my internet box is almost dead . . . So I may not be online for hours on end.

 

If y'all don't see me online for most of the afternoon, that's why.

[StormfanaticInd]

Instability is building 👀