April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[Iceresistance]

Storms just north of me right now

[Iceresistance]

24 hours until I go to Florida from Oklahoma. I hope that Friday's setup does not have storms in Central Oklahoma.

[ElectricStorm]

bruh

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

bruh

Out of all places, why Norman?

[Neoncyclone]

Yeesh here's the full life cycle of that theoretical supercell from the NSSL.

If verified, the supercell itself would track on for 6-7 hours 

 

[Iceresistance]

12 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Yeesh here's the full life cycle of that theoretical supercell from the NSSL.

If verified, the supercell itself would track on for 6-7 hours 

 

Is there a UH Swath for the model?

 

EDIT: That Supercell is barely north of my House, but I'm going to be in Fulton, MS at the Hotel.

Edited April 28, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Neoncyclone]

2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Is there a UH Swath for the model?

 

EDIT: That Supercell is barely north of my House, but I'm going to be in Fulton, MS at the Hotel.

Take it with a grain of salt, currently the NSSL is the only model showing discrete convection in C OK

[Iceresistance]

7 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Take it with a grain of salt, currently the NSSL is the only model showing discrete convection in C OK

Either way, KFOR did mention that the conditions are extremely favorable for Supercells, but the Cap is the only limiting factor, even though the SPC does have an Enhanced risk with 10% Hatched area for Tornadoes.

 

(Also, someone on my online school misspelled "Tornadoes" with "Tornados" 😆 )

Edited April 28, 2022 by Iceresistance

[ClicheVortex2014]

Little change in the new day 2 outlook but the wording is something else.

Very favorable environment for discrete supercells, very large to giant (>3") hail, intense tornadoes.

  Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
   OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND
   NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible Friday
   afternoon into Friday night across portions of the southern and
   central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   Very little change in the overall thinking of the forecast compared
   to the earlier Day 2 outlook issuance.  A strong mid- to upper-level
   speed max will quickly move southeast from the eastern Great Basin
   into the central/southern Plains during the period.  In the low
   levels, a surface low initially over the central High Plains will
   develop east into central KS by mid afternoon before moving to
   southeast SD by daybreak Saturday.  A triple point over KS during
   the day will feature a north-south dryline into the southern Great
   Plains near/immediately west of the OK I-35 corridor.  A cold front
   will push east/southeast across KS and into OK Friday night.

   ...Southern NE south to OK/north TX...
   Model guidance continues to show run-to-run consistency in the
   evolution of a mid-level shortwave trough into the region during the
   afternoon/evening.  Increasing southerly low-level flow will advect
   moisture northward beneath a stout capping inversion, as a warm
   sector destabilizes from near the triple point southward along/east
   of the dryline and becomes moderately to very unstable by early/mid
   afternoon.  Models show surface dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s
   F over the central Great Plains to the mid-upper 60s from southern
   KS southward.  Increasing large-scale ascent will overspread this
   region, with 30-60 m 12/hr 500 mb height falls expected by early
   evening from I-40 in central OK northward into NE.  Scattered
   thunderstorms are forecast to develop as the cap erodes initially
   near the triple point and a severe risk accompanying the stronger
   storms.  A couple of tornadoes and large to very large hail will be
   the primary threats with these storms.  Farther south from
   south-central KS into parts of north TX, storm coverage will likely
   become increasingly isolated, especially south of I-40.  However,
   impressive combination of low- to mid-level flow (700 mb flow 40-50
   kt) amidst a very unstable boundary layer, will conditionally
   support a very favorable environment for discrete supercells.  Very
   large to potentially giant hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) will
   probably occur with any sustained storm (i.e., supercell).  Hail,
   along with the possibility for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps an
   intense tornado), are expected beginning late in the afternoon
   through the early-mid evening.  Main questions at this time include
   both storm coverage and moisture quality with the latter playing a
   critical role in both storm coverage and tornado potential.  

   By early evening, coalescing of storms over KS/NE will likely lead
   to upscale growth with some of these storms likely developing along
   the front during the evening.  Hail/wind will likely evolve to be
   the main threats late in the evening with this risk perhaps
   lingering into the overnight.

   ...Portions of northwest KS into western/central NE...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
   deepening surface low across northwest KS by mid-afternoon.
   Boundary-layer moisture will be lower quality compared to further
   east, with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F. However, very steep
   midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability. Effective
   bulk shear values will support initial supercells capable of large 
   to very large hail. With time, this convection may develop into
   bowing line segments as convection shifts northeast into NE.

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Kansas is in a prime spot. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Monday looks bad for Oklahoma 

[Iceresistance]

There is one thing for sure with this upcoming storm system:

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[Iceresistance]

The forecast does say "If cap breaks" on the parameters.

[StormfanaticInd]

Quite the discussion from KIND

 

Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022

 

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT

Headline -- Strong/severe storms possible Saturday afternoon/night

 

Saturday is shaping up to be an interesting weather day across

central IN. Model consensus continues to advertise a deep low aloft

progressing slowly NE from the Plains to upper MS Valley. Models

prog a mid-upper level jet streak across the mid MS Valley with its

exit region over the western OH Valley. Given enough instability,

which this system should have, exit regions often are associated

with intense cellular (vs. linear) convection. However, this pattern

does not appear to be have a classic cellular look at this time, but

a mixed mode of celluar and linear, as that initial jet streak

elongates to provide more linear forcing with time with eastward

progression. In other words, linear convection with cellular

elements could eventually evolve across central IN.

 

Mesoscale details, yet to be determined, may play a significant

role. It`s possible (not certain) there could be leftover weakening

convection from Friday night that pushes across a portion of IN

during the first half of Saturday. If this occurs, two possibilities

exist. First, abundant remnant debris clouds could limit diurnal

heating and destabilization for awhile, and therefore intense

convective potential. Second, any weakening convection could create

outflow and/or differential heating confluence boundaries to force

renewed convection later in the day with eventual destabilization.

 

If there is no significant remnant morning rainfall or significant

debris clouds, then the warm sector will destabilize more rapidly.

New robust cellular convection will fire to our west over IL or so

(maybe even some warm sector cellular convection in IN), with this

convection then building upscale and moving quickly across IN late

Saturday or at night. Low-level and deep-level shear are not

extreme, but still adequate for storm organization. This shear,

combined with ample later day low-level moisture/instability,

forcing, and jet dynamics will create an environment favorable for

strong/severe convection, especially over western portions of our

area where instability/forcing should be maximized. Wind damage,

hail (especially in cellular convection), and isolated tornadoes all

are possible, along with brief torrential rainfall. Expect above

normal high temps Saturday afternoon ranging through the 70s with

lows that night in the 50s to around 60.

 

SUNDAY AND MONDAY

Headline -- Mainly dry with seasonal temps

 

Sunday - In the wake of the convection Saturday night, we should get

dry-slotted aloft on Sunday which should allow temps to rise to the

lower 70s across our southern counties, and 60s in northern areas.

However, there could be some wrap-around clouds too moving in from

the NW and even a few sprinkles across northern counties of central

IN, which would temper temps a bit.

 

Monday - Heights aloft rise between the departing system well to our

N and E, and the next approaching system across the central U.S.

High pressure at the surface should again keep conditions dry but

clouds could be increasing. After cooler morning lows in the mid 40s

to around 50, afternoon temps should max out from 65-70 north to 70-

75 south across our area.

 

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY

Headline -- Next weather system brings more showers and thunderstorms

 

Given the progressive, active flow pattern across the CONUS, the

next significant shortwave will approach the OH Valley Monday night

and Tuesday. Southerly moisture transport will again commence within

a warm air advection/isentropic lift regime to produce showers

Monday night at some point, with additional showers and storms

Tuesday. This system also appears it will have access to enough

kinematic energy and thermodynamics to support organized strong

convection over at least parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. Will

need to monitor this system as well. Expect highs Tuesday mostly in

the 70s.

 

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY

Headline -- Yet another system mid or late week should affect us

 

Once the system Tuesday heads out, most of Wednesday should be dry

as high pressure builds in. However, despite some varying model

solutions, there is a consensus that yet another weather system

within the synoptically-active pattern will cause showers and

perhaps more thunderstorms in IN starting either Wednesday or

Thursday/late next week.

 

RAINFALL POTENTIAL

Headline -- Heavy rain and local flooding possible over next 7 days

 

Besides episodic strong/severe convective potential across the OH

Valley during the long term forecast period, rounds of heavy

convective rainfall also should occur. Forecasting convective

rainfall amounts and locations is quite tenuous over the extended

period, but if enough convective systems move across central IN

(TBD), some localized flash flooding and/or areal/river flooding

could develop with time. We will monitor this possibility closely.

 

CONFIDENCE

 

While a parade of weather systems seems likely at times from this

weekend through late next week at times, the exact timing and

intensity of them, and their influence on central IN is still in

question. Nevertheless, ensemble and consensus solutions suggest

reasonable confidence in the aforementioned sensible weather

scenarios, i.e., a potentially active convective forecast period.

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Wichita Kansas 

For late Friday afternoon/evening, conditional chances for

significant severe weather including all hazards will exist just

ahead of the dry-line. The short term models are showing their

usual biases with the NAM more bullish on instability, further

west with dry-line and weaker inhibition. The upper jet alignment

by early evening and stronger winds aloft from the GFS would

suggest a better significant supercell/tornado environment across

south central Kansas IF convection develops along the dry-line

before the cold frontal merger later in the evening. Allowing for

some sentiments of various model solutions to verify, stronger

forcing for ascent with the approaching upper trof may be enough

to overcome the weakening inhibition to allow a window for surface

based severe convection to initiate just ahead of the dry-line in

the 22z-01z time frame where 40-50 kts bulk shear vector normal

to the dry-line, 100-150 j/kg 0-3km cape and decent 0-2km shear

will be present. If not, it is likely the frontal forcing/merger

with the dry-line later in the evening will support linear type

convection which will pose a severe threat transitioning from

hail/wind to mainly wind at least through midnight or so as it

progresses from the I-135 corridor across the Flint Hills.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Insane wildfire season. Yet another day 2 extreme fire danger risk. Just had one last week

[snowlover2]

ILN taking about severe with possible spotter activation for Tuesday.

Quote

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
338 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022

KYZ091>093-095>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088-291945-
Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
338 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There will be the potential for severe weather on Tuesday. Damaging
winds are expected to be the greatest threat with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be possible on Tuesday.

 

 

[Chinook]

southern nebraska- high reflectivity above 60 dBz goes way up to 35000 ft

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[Chinook]

Phillipsburg Kansas at 0226z. Multi-radar analysis shows a narrow area of 3" hail estimation

 

[StormfanaticInd]

👀

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS is one heck of a run for the first week of May. Several days of severe weather possible across the southern plains. After 5/2 things are up in the air still but that will be something to watch. 

[ElectricStorm]

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

Yeah that's been the #1 analog on pretty much every run. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.  

(For those that may not be familiar with this day this is 5/29/04)

Edited April 29, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[StormfanaticInd]

9 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

0z GFS is one heck of a run for the first week of May. Several days of severe weather possible across the southern plains. After 5/2 things are up in the air still but that will be something to watch. 

I got a feeling May could be a big month