Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Storms just north of me right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 24 hours until I go to Florida from Oklahoma. I hope that Friday's setup does not have storms in Central Oklahoma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 bruh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: bruh Out of all places, why Norman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Yeesh here's the full life cycle of that theoretical supercell from the NSSL. If verified, the supercell itself would track on for 6-7 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Yeesh here's the full life cycle of that theoretical supercell from the NSSL. If verified, the supercell itself would track on for 6-7 hours Is there a UH Swath for the model? EDIT: That Supercell is barely north of my House, but I'm going to be in Fulton, MS at the Hotel. Edited April 28, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Is there a UH Swath for the model? EDIT: That Supercell is barely north of my House, but I'm going to be in Fulton, MS at the Hotel. Take it with a grain of salt, currently the NSSL is the only model showing discrete convection in C OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Take it with a grain of salt, currently the NSSL is the only model showing discrete convection in C OK Either way, KFOR did mention that the conditions are extremely favorable for Supercells, but the Cap is the only limiting factor, even though the SPC does have an Enhanced risk with 10% Hatched area for Tornadoes. (Also, someone on my online school misspelled "Tornadoes" with "Tornados" 😆 ) Edited April 28, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) Little change in the new day 2 outlook but the wording is something else. Very favorable environment for discrete supercells, very large to giant (>3") hail, intense tornadoes. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible Friday afternoon into Friday night across portions of the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... Very little change in the overall thinking of the forecast compared to the earlier Day 2 outlook issuance. A strong mid- to upper-level speed max will quickly move southeast from the eastern Great Basin into the central/southern Plains during the period. In the low levels, a surface low initially over the central High Plains will develop east into central KS by mid afternoon before moving to southeast SD by daybreak Saturday. A triple point over KS during the day will feature a north-south dryline into the southern Great Plains near/immediately west of the OK I-35 corridor. A cold front will push east/southeast across KS and into OK Friday night. ...Southern NE south to OK/north TX... Model guidance continues to show run-to-run consistency in the evolution of a mid-level shortwave trough into the region during the afternoon/evening. Increasing southerly low-level flow will advect moisture northward beneath a stout capping inversion, as a warm sector destabilizes from near the triple point southward along/east of the dryline and becomes moderately to very unstable by early/mid afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s F over the central Great Plains to the mid-upper 60s from southern KS southward. Increasing large-scale ascent will overspread this region, with 30-60 m 12/hr 500 mb height falls expected by early evening from I-40 in central OK northward into NE. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop as the cap erodes initially near the triple point and a severe risk accompanying the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes and large to very large hail will be the primary threats with these storms. Farther south from south-central KS into parts of north TX, storm coverage will likely become increasingly isolated, especially south of I-40. However, impressive combination of low- to mid-level flow (700 mb flow 40-50 kt) amidst a very unstable boundary layer, will conditionally support a very favorable environment for discrete supercells. Very large to potentially giant hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) will probably occur with any sustained storm (i.e., supercell). Hail, along with the possibility for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps an intense tornado), are expected beginning late in the afternoon through the early-mid evening. Main questions at this time include both storm coverage and moisture quality with the latter playing a critical role in both storm coverage and tornado potential. By early evening, coalescing of storms over KS/NE will likely lead to upscale growth with some of these storms likely developing along the front during the evening. Hail/wind will likely evolve to be the main threats late in the evening with this risk perhaps lingering into the overnight. ...Portions of northwest KS into western/central NE... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near the deepening surface low across northwest KS by mid-afternoon. Boundary-layer moisture will be lower quality compared to further east, with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F. However, very steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability. Effective bulk shear values will support initial supercells capable of large to very large hail. With time, this convection may develop into bowing line segments as convection shifts northeast into NE. Edited April 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Kansas is in a prime spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Monday looks bad for Oklahoma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 There is one thing for sure with this upcoming storm system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 The forecast does say "If cap breaks" on the parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Quite the discussion from KIND Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT Headline -- Strong/severe storms possible Saturday afternoon/night Saturday is shaping up to be an interesting weather day across central IN. Model consensus continues to advertise a deep low aloft progressing slowly NE from the Plains to upper MS Valley. Models prog a mid-upper level jet streak across the mid MS Valley with its exit region over the western OH Valley. Given enough instability, which this system should have, exit regions often are associated with intense cellular (vs. linear) convection. However, this pattern does not appear to be have a classic cellular look at this time, but a mixed mode of celluar and linear, as that initial jet streak elongates to provide more linear forcing with time with eastward progression. In other words, linear convection with cellular elements could eventually evolve across central IN. Mesoscale details, yet to be determined, may play a significant role. It`s possible (not certain) there could be leftover weakening convection from Friday night that pushes across a portion of IN during the first half of Saturday. If this occurs, two possibilities exist. First, abundant remnant debris clouds could limit diurnal heating and destabilization for awhile, and therefore intense convective potential. Second, any weakening convection could create outflow and/or differential heating confluence boundaries to force renewed convection later in the day with eventual destabilization. If there is no significant remnant morning rainfall or significant debris clouds, then the warm sector will destabilize more rapidly. New robust cellular convection will fire to our west over IL or so (maybe even some warm sector cellular convection in IN), with this convection then building upscale and moving quickly across IN late Saturday or at night. Low-level and deep-level shear are not extreme, but still adequate for storm organization. This shear, combined with ample later day low-level moisture/instability, forcing, and jet dynamics will create an environment favorable for strong/severe convection, especially over western portions of our area where instability/forcing should be maximized. Wind damage, hail (especially in cellular convection), and isolated tornadoes all are possible, along with brief torrential rainfall. Expect above normal high temps Saturday afternoon ranging through the 70s with lows that night in the 50s to around 60. SUNDAY AND MONDAY Headline -- Mainly dry with seasonal temps Sunday - In the wake of the convection Saturday night, we should get dry-slotted aloft on Sunday which should allow temps to rise to the lower 70s across our southern counties, and 60s in northern areas. However, there could be some wrap-around clouds too moving in from the NW and even a few sprinkles across northern counties of central IN, which would temper temps a bit. Monday - Heights aloft rise between the departing system well to our N and E, and the next approaching system across the central U.S. High pressure at the surface should again keep conditions dry but clouds could be increasing. After cooler morning lows in the mid 40s to around 50, afternoon temps should max out from 65-70 north to 70- 75 south across our area. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY Headline -- Next weather system brings more showers and thunderstorms Given the progressive, active flow pattern across the CONUS, the next significant shortwave will approach the OH Valley Monday night and Tuesday. Southerly moisture transport will again commence within a warm air advection/isentropic lift regime to produce showers Monday night at some point, with additional showers and storms Tuesday. This system also appears it will have access to enough kinematic energy and thermodynamics to support organized strong convection over at least parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. Will need to monitor this system as well. Expect highs Tuesday mostly in the 70s. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY Headline -- Yet another system mid or late week should affect us Once the system Tuesday heads out, most of Wednesday should be dry as high pressure builds in. However, despite some varying model solutions, there is a consensus that yet another weather system within the synoptically-active pattern will cause showers and perhaps more thunderstorms in IN starting either Wednesday or Thursday/late next week. RAINFALL POTENTIAL Headline -- Heavy rain and local flooding possible over next 7 days Besides episodic strong/severe convective potential across the OH Valley during the long term forecast period, rounds of heavy convective rainfall also should occur. Forecasting convective rainfall amounts and locations is quite tenuous over the extended period, but if enough convective systems move across central IN (TBD), some localized flash flooding and/or areal/river flooding could develop with time. We will monitor this possibility closely. CONFIDENCE While a parade of weather systems seems likely at times from this weekend through late next week at times, the exact timing and intensity of them, and their influence on central IN is still in question. Nevertheless, ensemble and consensus solutions suggest reasonable confidence in the aforementioned sensible weather scenarios, i.e., a potentially active convective forecast period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Wichita Kansas For late Friday afternoon/evening, conditional chances for significant severe weather including all hazards will exist just ahead of the dry-line. The short term models are showing their usual biases with the NAM more bullish on instability, further west with dry-line and weaker inhibition. The upper jet alignment by early evening and stronger winds aloft from the GFS would suggest a better significant supercell/tornado environment across south central Kansas IF convection develops along the dry-line before the cold frontal merger later in the evening. Allowing for some sentiments of various model solutions to verify, stronger forcing for ascent with the approaching upper trof may be enough to overcome the weakening inhibition to allow a window for surface based severe convection to initiate just ahead of the dry-line in the 22z-01z time frame where 40-50 kts bulk shear vector normal to the dry-line, 100-150 j/kg 0-3km cape and decent 0-2km shear will be present. If not, it is likely the frontal forcing/merger with the dry-line later in the evening will support linear type convection which will pose a severe threat transitioning from hail/wind to mainly wind at least through midnight or so as it progresses from the I-135 corridor across the Flint Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 Insane wildfire season. Yet another day 2 extreme fire danger risk. Just had one last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 ILN taking about severe with possible spotter activation for Tuesday. Quote Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 338 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 KYZ091>093-095>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074- 077>082-088-291945- Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis- Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami- Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene- Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking- Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 338 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There will be the potential for severe weather on Tuesday. Damaging winds are expected to be the greatest threat with these storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will be possible on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 southern nebraska- high reflectivity above 60 dBz goes way up to 35000 ft 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 Phillipsburg Kansas at 0226z. Multi-radar analysis shows a narrow area of 3" hail estimation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 0z GFS is one heck of a run for the first week of May. Several days of severe weather possible across the southern plains. After 5/2 things are up in the air still but that will be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Yeah that's been the #1 analog on pretty much every run. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. (For those that may not be familiar with this day this is 5/29/04) Edited April 29, 2022 by OKwx_2001 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 9 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: 0z GFS is one heck of a run for the first week of May. Several days of severe weather possible across the southern plains. After 5/2 things are up in the air still but that will be something to watch. I got a feeling May could be a big month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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