April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[ClicheVortex2014]

23 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Cute little supercell in the Texas Panhandle

LCL is around 2km so a tornado is unlikely but it's the season where even the most unhyped events can produce some pretty classic looking supercells

 

0z AMA sounding confirms the high LCL, also weak low-level winds. Pretty safe to rule out a tornado.

Edited April 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

I see the HRRR is showing something at this range for a change. I'm actually kinda surprised it isn't showing anything further south. Cap looks very breakable all the way through 0z unlike some of the other models. I'm still thinking we don't end up with too much down here but if future runs keep looking similar I'm going to get a little more concerned. 

I'm very concerned for KS though. It's been awhile since we've see a big tornado event up there, but this has some real potential to break that trend. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Oh man... most of the dryline in Kansas on 0z NAM at 0z is weakly capped or uncapped and primed for significant tornadoes and huge hail

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

43 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

LCL is around 2km so a tornado is unlikely but it's the season where even the most unhyped events can produce some pretty classic looking supercells

 

0z AMA sounding confirms the high LCL, also weak low-level winds. Pretty safe to rule out a tornado.

3D  views at 0200z

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Saturday looks really interesting for E IL/IN. Especially if there's warm sector cells. Very favorable conditions in the entire state of Indiana and western Ohio.

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

27 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Oh man... most of the dryline in Kansas on 0z NAM at 0z is weakly capped or uncapped and primed for significant tornadoes and huge hail

That's the area average sounding. Here's some point-and-clicks

North-central KS

Central KS

South-central KS (!!!)

[Ingyball]

Oh man I hope the 0z NAM is right about the dryline being further west. Could be famous last words but we're desperate for rain here and I'd love to get some good pictures after I slept through that crazy lightning storm in March.

[ClicheVortex2014]

No idea what SPC will do with the new day 2 outlook aside from maintaining an enhanced risk for at least hail. CAMs show impressive agreement regarding discrete cells somewhere in a general area. Just not sure how much SPC buys into that, and also how much they buy into the thermo profile.

At this point, my gut tells me there's no reason to go above enhanced risk for now even though the potential is there.

Edited April 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Ingyball]

Upper level jet position and orientation still looks really good. I'm optimistic we will see storms break the cap in Kansas at least. We're also not dealing with the poor lapse rates we were dealing with last Saturday. 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

3 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Upper level jet position and orientation still looks really good. I'm optimistic we will see storms break the cap in Kansas at least. We're also not dealing with the poor lapse rates we were dealing with last Saturday. 

 

~70 knot jet streak pushing into the warm sector ahead of a dryline is a big part of a recipe for trouble. Just comes down to capping, which I guess your coworkers aren't worried about. I guess the question then comes down to how large is the window for discrete/semi-discrete supercells.

[Ingyball]

2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

~70 knot jet streak pushing into the warm sector ahead of a dryline is a big part of a recipe for trouble. Just comes down to capping, which I guess your coworkers aren't worried about. I guess the question then comes down to how large is the window for discrete/semi-discrete supercells.

I still think we will see capping, but I don't think it will be unbreakable. Otherwise I'd be concerned about messy storm mode and storms going linear too early. It is a balance though and the tricky part is knowing if you're going to strike that balance or not lol. 

[Ingyball]

Nice jet streak on the GFS too. GFS still pushes that dryline east. Could be it's bias showing up but it also wouldn't surprise me. Crossing my fingers it's too far east. 

[Ingyball]

How much do I need to pay to get the 3K NAM to be right for once and then not go linear so quickly? lol 

[ClicheVortex2014]

This is for May 2nd... whew

 

[ElectricStorm]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

This is for May 2nd... whew

 

I was just about to post something about that. Yeesh 

[ClicheVortex2014]

It has another interesting event for the OV

 

Northern KY

 

The trough just has a vibe about it

Edited April 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

It's about to really get active. 

[ElectricStorm]

Was scrolling through twitter to find some updates earlier and wow are there some bad takes on there tonight... Several from the same guy that's known for this stuff

But hey I needed something to laugh at so there's that I guess lol 

EDIT: Even a SPC forecaster went after him this time 😂

Edited April 28, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[StormfanaticInd]

48 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

It has another interesting event for the OV

 

Northern KY

 

The trough just has a vibe about it

Pretty interesting look on the gfs late Monday into Tuesday. Could be a decent mcs

[ClicheVortex2014]

5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Pretty interesting look on the gfs late Monday into Tuesday. Could be a decent mcs

A 1004mb low in that area is definitely something to watch.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Day 2 enhanced risk for significant tornadoes and hail. This is the same forecaster that put out the initial day 5 outlook and the day 4.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0102 AM CDT THU APR 28 2022  
  
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS  
OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND  
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A NEGATIVE-TILT MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL EJECT  
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A  
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 1-2 DAYS.  
ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING AN UPPER  
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, MAINTAINING AN OPEN WAVE AT  
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THESE TRENDS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER  
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR OVERSPREADING  
NE/KS/OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS  
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, BEFORE  
LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN IA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SURFACE  
DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL  
KS/OK INTO WEST-CENTRAL TX. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN  
STRONG MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND GENERALLY LOW TO MID  
60S F DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OK/KS AND INTO SOUTHEAST NE. A  
COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO  
FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST IA TO EASTERN OK  
AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY MORNING.   
  
WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE WARM SECTOR AND  
MIDLEVEL CAPPING, THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF FOCUSED  
AREAS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ONE AREA BEING NEAR THE  
SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN  
NE. THE SECOND BEING DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE  
SURFACE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK. FINALLY,  
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING  
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ELEVATED.   
   
..PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND OK  
  
MUCH OF THE HIGHER-QUALITY WARM SECTOR WILL BE FOCUSED ROUGHLY  
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OK/KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NE WHERE  
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO AROUND 1 KM AGL IS FORECAST. THIS WILL  
MAINTAIN A MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SOME FORECAST  
GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE OPERATIONAL NAM, MAINTAINS RATHER COOL  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH CLOUDINESS PREVAILING  
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO  
MOST OTHER GUIDANCE, WITH NAM SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS 5-10  
DEG F TOO COOL. THIS IS RESULTING IN A CAPPING INVERSION THAT IS  
LIKELY TOO STRONG. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WARMER SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES DO RESULT IN EROSION OF THE CAP. THEREFORE, WHILE SOME  
CAPPING MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE, IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT AT LEAST A  
FEW SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE DRYLINE  
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND  
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS ABOVE FAVORABLY-CURVED LOW-LEVELS INDICATE  
SIGNIFICANT HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS. FURTHERMORE, STEEP  
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE 0-3 KM MLCAPE VALUES AMID  
INCREASING SRH AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EVENING,  
INDICATE THAT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY  
BE SIGNIFICANT (EF 2+). OF NOTE, MOST CAMS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO LEAVE  
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KS ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAY  
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING CONVECTION SHIFTING EAST INTO MO. THIS  
BOUNDARY WOULD EXTEND WEST TO EAST, PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE AND  
COULD BE A FURTHER AREA OF FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.   
  
THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF HIGHER RISK PROBABILITY IS UNCERTAIN, BUT  
GENERALLY WILL DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AS  
STRONGER ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND THE INFLUENCE OF  
THE CAP WILL BE GREATER.  
  
A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING  
ALONG THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY  
BE ELEVATED AND BECOME LINEAR, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED HAIL THREAT  
COULD CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO MO.   
   
..PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE  
  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE  
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST KS BY MID-AFTERNOON.  
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER QUALITY COMPARED TO FURTHER  
EAST, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 F. HOWEVER, VERY STEEP  
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. EFFECTIVE  
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE   
TO VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME, THIS CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INTO  
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NE.  
  

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Monday and Tuesday are definitely going to need to be highlighted by the spc. 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0221 AM CDT THU APR 28 2022     VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF   NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...WESTERN   INDIANA...WESTERN KY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TN...

      ..SUMMARY     SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL   BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.       ..MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS     A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI   VALLEY WILL DEVELOP EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI   VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER   FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE   RATES ALSO WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH THE 00-03Z   PERIOD. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD   FRONT WILL TRANSPORT MAINLY LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS   SOUTHERN WI AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE   OVER WESTERN IA SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE WEAKENING AS IT DEVELOPS   NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN WI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE COLD   FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MO/IL, BECOMING POSITIONED   FROM WESTERN LOWER MI TO WESTERN TN/SOUTHERN AR BY SUNDAY MORNING.     MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AS SOME   EARLY DAY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/SHIFT EAST. FORECAST   SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AMID 40-50 KT   EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES, SUPPORTING INITIAL SUPERCELLS ACROSS   PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO, NORTHEAST AR AND PORTIONS OF IL.   LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL   ACTIVITY. WITH TIME, SOME UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A QLCS APPEARS   LIKELY AS DEEP-LAYER FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL AND PARALLEL TO   THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST COUPLE OF   KILOMETERS SUGGEST THAT MESOVORTEX DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE   ALONG THE LINE. IF A TRANSITION TO A QLCS/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS   OCCURS, THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALSO WILL INCREASE WITH A COUPLE   TORNADOES POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS EASTERN   PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.    

Edited April 28, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[FortySixAnd32]

6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

No idea what SPC will do with the new day 2 outlook aside from maintaining an enhanced risk for at least hail. CAMs show impressive agreement regarding discrete cells somewhere in a general area. Just not sure how much SPC buys into that, and also how much they buy into the thermo profile.

At this point, my gut tells me there's no reason to go above enhanced risk for now even though the potential is there.

I hope you don't get sued over that profile picture....

Polly wants a cracker though.....

[MaineJay]

11 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

I hope you don't get sued over that profile picture....

Polly wants a cracker though.....

The kid just wants his money. 😆  I think he lost the case though.