Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) 23 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Cute little supercell in the Texas Panhandle LCL is around 2km so a tornado is unlikely but it's the season where even the most unhyped events can produce some pretty classic looking supercells 0z AMA sounding confirms the high LCL, also weak low-level winds. Pretty safe to rule out a tornado. Edited April 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 I see the HRRR is showing something at this range for a change. I'm actually kinda surprised it isn't showing anything further south. Cap looks very breakable all the way through 0z unlike some of the other models. I'm still thinking we don't end up with too much down here but if future runs keep looking similar I'm going to get a little more concerned. I'm very concerned for KS though. It's been awhile since we've see a big tornado event up there, but this has some real potential to break that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) Oh man... most of the dryline in Kansas on 0z NAM at 0z is weakly capped or uncapped and primed for significant tornadoes and huge hail Edited April 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 43 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: LCL is around 2km so a tornado is unlikely but it's the season where even the most unhyped events can produce some pretty classic looking supercells 0z AMA sounding confirms the high LCL, also weak low-level winds. Pretty safe to rule out a tornado. 3D views at 0200z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) Saturday looks really interesting for E IL/IN. Especially if there's warm sector cells. Very favorable conditions in the entire state of Indiana and western Ohio. Edited April 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 27 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Oh man... most of the dryline in Kansas on 0z NAM at 0z is weakly capped or uncapped and primed for significant tornadoes and huge hail That's the area average sounding. Here's some point-and-clicks North-central KS Central KS South-central KS (!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 Oh man I hope the 0z NAM is right about the dryline being further west. Could be famous last words but we're desperate for rain here and I'd love to get some good pictures after I slept through that crazy lightning storm in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) No idea what SPC will do with the new day 2 outlook aside from maintaining an enhanced risk for at least hail. CAMs show impressive agreement regarding discrete cells somewhere in a general area. Just not sure how much SPC buys into that, and also how much they buy into the thermo profile. At this point, my gut tells me there's no reason to go above enhanced risk for now even though the potential is there. Edited April 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 Upper level jet position and orientation still looks really good. I'm optimistic we will see storms break the cap in Kansas at least. We're also not dealing with the poor lapse rates we were dealing with last Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Upper level jet position and orientation still looks really good. I'm optimistic we will see storms break the cap in Kansas at least. We're also not dealing with the poor lapse rates we were dealing with last Saturday. ~70 knot jet streak pushing into the warm sector ahead of a dryline is a big part of a recipe for trouble. Just comes down to capping, which I guess your coworkers aren't worried about. I guess the question then comes down to how large is the window for discrete/semi-discrete supercells. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: ~70 knot jet streak pushing into the warm sector ahead of a dryline is a big part of a recipe for trouble. Just comes down to capping, which I guess your coworkers aren't worried about. I guess the question then comes down to how large is the window for discrete/semi-discrete supercells. I still think we will see capping, but I don't think it will be unbreakable. Otherwise I'd be concerned about messy storm mode and storms going linear too early. It is a balance though and the tricky part is knowing if you're going to strike that balance or not lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 Nice jet streak on the GFS too. GFS still pushes that dryline east. Could be it's bias showing up but it also wouldn't surprise me. Crossing my fingers it's too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 How much do I need to pay to get the 3K NAM to be right for once and then not go linear so quickly? lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 This is for May 2nd... whew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: This is for May 2nd... whew I was just about to post something about that. Yeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) It has another interesting event for the OV Northern KY The trough just has a vibe about it Edited April 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 It's about to really get active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) Was scrolling through twitter to find some updates earlier and wow are there some bad takes on there tonight... Several from the same guy that's known for this stuff But hey I needed something to laugh at so there's that I guess lol EDIT: Even a SPC forecaster went after him this time 😂 Edited April 28, 2022 by OKwx_2001 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 48 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: It has another interesting event for the OV Northern KY The trough just has a vibe about it Pretty interesting look on the gfs late Monday into Tuesday. Could be a decent mcs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Pretty interesting look on the gfs late Monday into Tuesday. Could be a decent mcs A 1004mb low in that area is definitely something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 Day 2 enhanced risk for significant tornadoes and hail. This is the same forecaster that put out the initial day 5 outlook and the day 4. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT THU APR 28 2022 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ..SYNOPSIS A NEGATIVE-TILT MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 1-2 DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, MAINTAINING AN OPEN WAVE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THESE TRENDS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR OVERSPREADING NE/KS/OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN IA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SURFACE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK INTO WEST-CENTRAL TX. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND GENERALLY LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OK/KS AND INTO SOUTHEAST NE. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST IA TO EASTERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE WARM SECTOR AND MIDLEVEL CAPPING, THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF FOCUSED AREAS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ONE AREA BEING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN NE. THE SECOND BEING DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK. FINALLY, ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ELEVATED. ..PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND OK MUCH OF THE HIGHER-QUALITY WARM SECTOR WILL BE FOCUSED ROUGHLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OK/KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NE WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO AROUND 1 KM AGL IS FORECAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE OPERATIONAL NAM, MAINTAINS RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH CLOUDINESS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE, WITH NAM SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS 5-10 DEG F TOO COOL. THIS IS RESULTING IN A CAPPING INVERSION THAT IS LIKELY TOO STRONG. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO RESULT IN EROSION OF THE CAP. THEREFORE, WHILE SOME CAPPING MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE, IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS ABOVE FAVORABLY-CURVED LOW-LEVELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS. FURTHERMORE, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE 0-3 KM MLCAPE VALUES AMID INCREASING SRH AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EVENING, INDICATE THAT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT (EF 2+). OF NOTE, MOST CAMS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KS ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING CONVECTION SHIFTING EAST INTO MO. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD EXTEND WEST TO EAST, PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE AND COULD BE A FURTHER AREA OF FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF HIGHER RISK PROBABILITY IS UNCERTAIN, BUT GENERALLY WILL DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AS STRONGER ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE CAP WILL BE GREATER. A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING ALONG THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND BECOME LINEAR, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED HAIL THREAT COULD CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO MO. ..PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST KS BY MID-AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER QUALITY COMPARED TO FURTHER EAST, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 F. HOWEVER, VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME, THIS CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Monday and Tuesday are definitely going to need to be highlighted by the spc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 AM CDT THU APR 28 2022 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TN... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ..MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DEVELOP EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH THE 00-03Z PERIOD. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL TRANSPORT MAINLY LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN WI AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WESTERN IA SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE WEAKENING AS IT DEVELOPS NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN WI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MO/IL, BECOMING POSITIONED FROM WESTERN LOWER MI TO WESTERN TN/SOUTHERN AR BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AS SOME EARLY DAY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/SHIFT EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AMID 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES, SUPPORTING INITIAL SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO, NORTHEAST AR AND PORTIONS OF IL. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. WITH TIME, SOME UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A QLCS APPEARS LIKELY AS DEEP-LAYER FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL AND PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST COUPLE OF KILOMETERS SUGGEST THAT MESOVORTEX DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE. IF A TRANSITION TO A QLCS/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OCCURS, THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALSO WILL INCREASE WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. Edited April 28, 2022 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: No idea what SPC will do with the new day 2 outlook aside from maintaining an enhanced risk for at least hail. CAMs show impressive agreement regarding discrete cells somewhere in a general area. Just not sure how much SPC buys into that, and also how much they buy into the thermo profile. At this point, my gut tells me there's no reason to go above enhanced risk for now even though the potential is there. I hope you don't get sued over that profile picture.... Polly wants a cracker though..... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted April 28, 2022 Admin Share Posted April 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said: I hope you don't get sued over that profile picture.... Polly wants a cracker though..... The kid just wants his money. 😆 I think he lost the case though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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