April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[Neoncyclone]

60 seconds later here it is

[ClicheVortex2014]

18 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

It seems like it's usually that way with east coast setups, I wonder why. Shear has to be a part for this setup, but I wonder why storms in general in this area look more compact.

The east coast usually has relatively skinny/tall instability profiles due to moist profiles with relatively weak lapse rates since they're so far removed from EML sources and not so very far removed from warm SSTs. Having fatter instability profiles would go a long way toward having larger supercells, but you can't have that without being closer to an EML.

Wind profiles can vary because they can have days like this where it's not strong but not weak... but they can also have days where there's a strong negative tilt that leads to higher-end tornado days.

Edited May 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

Possible debris ball, could just be clear air

Can't tell it looks like it though

Edited May 6, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Neoncyclone]

Kind of hard to see because of the rain but looks like a tornado on the left side 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

36 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Possible debris ball, could just be clear air

Can't tell it looks like it though

Definitely hard to tell. Not really a convincing velocity signature or reflectivity signature but I think the telltale sign here is coupling differential reflectivity with CC... I think it is a debris signature because of negative zdr values correlating with low CC values

Edited May 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

Must be some pretty decent shear near the coast

 

[Neoncyclone]

[Neoncyclone]

Woah out of nowhere North central NC, best meso so far that could definitely produce.

 

 

[Neoncyclone]

I wish I still had Radarscope pro for the dual-panel

[Neoncyclone]

Per mesoanalysis the best parameters right now are just NE of this GA supercell, already has a strong meso.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said:

Per mesoanalysis the best parameters right now are just NE of this GA supercell, already has a strong meso.

 

Damn that's crazy... I was just about to post about that

[Neoncyclone]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Damn that's crazy... I was just about to post about that

Might be splitting too, there's definitely a cell just to the north, not sure if it was already there, right turn?

Edited May 6, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[ClicheVortex2014]

14 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Might be splitting too, there's definitely a cell just to the north, not sure if it was already there, right turn?

Maybe a bit... the hodograph doesn't really support a split but it might be possible. If it does happen, the left-mover wouldn't last long.

Starting to look more serious

Edited May 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

SW OH is getting smacked by very slow moving, very heavy rain. So close but so far.

[Neoncyclone]

Still no tornado warning but it's got one hell of a meso

[ClicheVortex2014]

24 active severe warnings, 3 tornado warnings. The trough is starting to take a negative tilt. I'd imagine why an enhanced risk for wind/tornadoes has been maintained for E TN/NC/NE GA/N SC/SE VA. Next few hours will be interesting.

Edited May 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

Just had a really nice rumble of thunder here. Been a while.

[junior]

14 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

SW OH is getting smacked by very slow moving, very heavy rain. So close but so far.

Even the lower dbz pack a punch. Good rates. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

   Mesoscale Discussion 0679
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0451 PM CDT Fri May 06 2022

   Areas affected...northern North Carolina into southern Virginia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 187...

   Valid 062151Z - 062315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 187 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 0187.
   Large hail and damaging gusts may accompany any of the more
   organized, longer lived storms. The best chance for tornadoes will
   be with the more dominant thunderstorms that can favorably interact
   with the warm front.

   DISCUSSION...Current surface observations depict the warm front
   roughly along/just north of the NC/VA border, with surface dewpoints
   up to 70 F along the immediate warm side of the front, contributing
   to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. The 2109Z AKQ VAD profiler depicts a modestly
   curved 0-3 km hodograph (and associated 300 m2/s2 SRH). However, the
   hodograph shortens considerably above 3 km, suggesting that storms
   may struggle to maintain higher-end organization due to lack of
   airmass ventilation towards the top of the storms. Nonetheless, the
   ample buoyancy in place will still promote brief but robust updraft
   pulses capable of producing strong to severe gusts and marginally
   severe hail. The more dominant, discrete storms that can interact
   favorably with the warm front will have the greatest chance at
   producing a tornado.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

A huge majority of the current severe warnings are just ahead of the negative tilting trough. No coincidence.

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

Pouring here.

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 minute ago, snowlover2 said:

Pouring here.

I'm hoping that area of heavier showers southeast of New Lebanon continue to develop. No thunder yet here today but the past ~36 hours has been far more spring-like than we've seen all spring. 

I mean... where's been our 3" of rain over 2 days at least once per month? Non existent.

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[junior]

Small cell overhead barely moving IMBY, couple close lightning strikes and just pouring buckets. 

[snowlover2]

8 minutes ago, junior said:

Small cell overhead barely moving IMBY, couple close lightning strikes and just pouring buckets. 

Think that's the cell just east of me. Getting the occasional thunder and lightning from that.