April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[TLChip]

Hmmm looks like these are struggling to get going. 

[ElectricStorm]

Also the first Earlsboro, OK tornado is EF2/135, just shy of EF3. These are all preliminary 

Edited May 5, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[Iceresistance]

This is why many LOVE watching Pecos Hank compared to Reed Timmer.

 

[Neoncyclone]

Been waiting for this ever since it happened last night, track for the loopty loop Earlsboro tornado

 

[FortySixAnd32]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

This is why many LOVE watching Pecos Hank compared to Reed Timmer.

 

Cool as a Titanium nickel!!!

[Neoncyclone]

Could be quite the severe weather day for the NC, SC and VA tomorrow.

Could also be pretty big for Alabama/Georgia however storm mode seems a bit sloppy. (EDIT: New runs have way less messy storm mode big problems)

Some soundings from ahead some of the storms in North Carolina and Virginia

Edited May 6, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Neoncyclone]

Big enhanced risk, 10% tornado risk added to NC and VA, Alabama/Georgia 10% got expanded. Expected this after seeing the 00z HRRR (post above)

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[ClicheVortex2014]

Interesting on HRRR. Lots of discrete convection but nothing looks particularly nasty or long-lived.

[ClicheVortex2014]

   Mesoscale Discussion 0672
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1039 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022

   Areas affected...portions of the FL Panhandle into much of GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 061539Z - 061745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and quickly increase
   in coverage by 17-18z. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are
   possible in addition to isolated large hail. A tornado watch is
   expected within the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery is underway across the region in the
   wake of early morning showers/thunderstorms. Heavier cloud cover is
   now shifting east across the eastern half of GA with pockets of
   stronger heating behind the thicker cloud shield. Billow clouds
   across eastern AL into GA indicate the boundary layer is still
   experiencing inhibition. Further south, a more uninhibited
   boundary-layer is evident given ongoing convection across the Walton
   County FL vicinity, and an increasing cumulus field advancing
   northward into far southeast AL/southwest GA. 

   Surface dewpoints range from the mid 60s to low 70s F and additional
   heating will aid in MLCAPE values increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg by
   early afternoon. As temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s,
   surface-3 km lapse rates will increase to around 7.5-8.0 C/km amid
   moderate low-level shear. Forecast soundings indicated enlarged,
   favorably curved 0-3 km hodographs. Coupled with moderate low-level
   instability and deep boundary-layer moisture, any semi-discrete
   supercells will be capable of supporting tornadoes in addition to
   damaging gusts. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, in part due
   to morning convection, but also only modest cooling aloft.
   Nevertheless, moderate instability/shear and expected discrete storm
   mode, hail may accompany the stronger cells. 

   While discrete convection is anticipated, some mixed-modes also are
   possible with clusters or bowing segments possible. As convection
   increases, thunderstorm interaction and some upscale development
   along thunderstorm outflows could result in clusters/bowing
   segments. The damaging gust potential will increase with these storm
   modes.

 

[Neoncyclone]

The HRRR is trying to predict a long-tracking supercell through NC into VA later today

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

9 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

The HRRR is trying to predict a long-tracking supercell through NC into VA later today

 

That's sneaky on reflectivity at least

[Neoncyclone]

2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

That's sneaky on reflectivity at least

Here's a sounding out ahead, not sure how much tornado potential there is, plenty of instability, also notable, 9.0 C sfc-3km lapse rates

[ClicheVortex2014]

7 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Here's a sounding out ahead, not sure how much tornado potential there is, plenty of instability, also notable, 9.0 C sfc-3km lapse rates

LCL is on the higher end of what's favorable and low-level shear is weak and surely not enough to compensate for the high LCL. But SPC does have an enhanced risk for tornadoes so there must be something else to it. I haven't really looked into today much.

Impressive jet streak currently though. Lucky it doesn't take a negative tilt at a more favorable time. 

Edited May 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

Impressive supercell maturing just south of the FL panhandle

[ClicheVortex2014]

Didn't take long. Low-topped tornadic supercell just across the border of extreme SE KY

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

Warning in SW NC 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Setup actually isn't bad per mesoanalysis... just not the kind of high-end, obvious setup we're used to in May.

Widespread low LCLs at least in TN/KY/WV/VA/NC, modest 0-1km SRH, widespread moderate to strong low-level cape. All this should be good for creating some low-level mesos. Any local increase in low-level shear will raise the tornado threat potentially greatly.

Further south, there's slightly stronger 0-1km SRH and stronger instability but higher LCLs. Balancing act of conditions between the two areas. 

Will be interesting to see which set of conditions will produce which kind of severe weather more predominately. Even though both areas have an enhanced risk for tornadoes, I'm putting hypothetical money on the northern one verifying the best.

Edited May 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[so_whats_happening]

May need to watch the area of northern VA and MD. Virtually no real cape from the surface but some elevated cape may help just a bit with the warm front very near to the region. Again certainly not the best look for strong severe weather but wouldn't be surprised to see some warnings hopefully no tornado warnings. 

[Neoncyclone]

Could be the beginning of that long tracking supercell HRRR was sniffing out

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[ClicheVortex2014]

8 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

May need to watch the area of northern VA and MD. Virtually no real cape from the surface but some elevated cape may help just a bit with the warm front very near to the region. Again certainly not the best look for strong severe weather but wouldn't be surprised to see some warnings hopefully no tornado warnings. 

That sounding in particular wouldn't have much of a severe threat, if any. 0-3km layer is stable... though there may be some elevated instability above that.

South of there is a warm front, and any cell in that vicinity would have a tornado threat.

[Neoncyclone]

Some good looking storms today

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

9 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Some good looking storms today

 

Agreed. Kinda funny, though, considering what we were looking at just 2 days ago. These cells are 3+ times smaller than those

[ClicheVortex2014]

Cute mini-supercell just east of Wilmington, Ohio. A a surprise.

[Neoncyclone]

15 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Agreed. Kinda funny, though, considering what we were looking at just 2 days ago. These cells are 3+ times smaller than those

It seems like it's usually that way with east coast setups, I wonder why. Shear has to be a part for this setup, but I wonder why storms in general in this area look more compact.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Neoncyclone]

Hasn't updated but there's going to be a tornado warning here