ElectricStorm Posted April 27, 2022 Author Share Posted April 27, 2022 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 27, 2022 Mean cap in south-central KS at 12z on the 18z HRRR. Will be interesting to see how much of it is erased by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 27, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Mean cap in south-central KS at 12z on the 18z HRRR. Will be interesting to see how much of it is erased by the end of the run. Not bad and it's still only 1pm central. However... as usual, I suspect it's overmixing. Edited April 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: 🤔 Automated station reported 60 mph gusts in the diminishing showers, it looks more like they've made a downburst when they collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 27, 2022 Unusually strong directional shear for the OV... at least at this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 27, 2022 (edited) Pales in comparison to the setup on Friday but still has some serious potential. I'd argue it has less bust potential than Friday. North-central IN South of Chicago North of Springfield, IL Edited April 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 27, 2022 Author Share Posted April 27, 2022 I'm not a huge fan of the 3km NAM but it's showing some pretty dang high parameters for Friday. Cap doesn't look all that strong across OK/KS either, at least compared to some other models so I'm a little surprised it's not really showing anything forming. But then again it's the 3km NAM and it hardly ever shows much at this range, at least from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 27, 2022 ICT says yikes Friday remains our best chance of seeing severe storms across the area. However, chances of storms still seems somewhat conditional given a rather stout cap forecast over much of the area with only a narrow area forecast to somewhat erode along the dryline during the afternoon hours. On the synoptic scale, large scale ascent will be present which should help further erode the cap along the dryline and allow for a few isolated to widely scattered discrete supercells to develop along it. An additional item of complexity would be the magnitude of large scale ascent, if the upper trough actually provides too much lift, perhaps we end up lighting up the whole dryline, so rather than more isolated to widely scattered storms we have many supercells that go up quickly along the line and have less of a chance of staying discrete. As the main trough comes along shore in the next 12-24 hours, we will have to watch for any new trends in the placement of the forecast trough axis. All of that said, significant severe hazards remain on the table for Friday afternoon and evening. By mid afternoon Friday, a very favorable pattern is setting up. Such that a 60-80kt upper level jet is set to nose into the warm sector, more perpendicular than not. Nearly 50kt of 0-6km shear is expected along and ahead of the dryline, to which the 0-6 km shear vectors will also be oriented perpendicular to the boundary, which has the best chance of keeping storm mode discrete supercells. The mid 60s dewpoints and daytime heating will help support 2,000-3,000 J/kg MLCAPE along a narrow region in the vicinity of the dryline, where maximum sfc convergence is expected. Additionally, favorable 0-1km shear (20+kts) and 0-3km CAPE upwards of 100 J/kg in concert favorable hodographs and effective SRH upwards of 300 is progged. Should storms initiate, and stay discrete, significant severe hazards would be possible, including: 2"+ hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 54 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Pales in comparison to the setup on Friday but still has some serious potential. I'd argue it has less bust potential than Friday. North-central IN South of Chicago North of Springfield, IL That warm front needs to be watched for sure. Been noticing that to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 27, 2022 (edited) 33 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: That warm front needs to be watched for sure. Been noticing that to Just glad a right-mover wouldn't ride the warm front. At least it wouldn't according to the wind profile... not sure if the warm front would help in any way to make it ride down the warm front. I think that's a lot to ask for a warm front. Edited April 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: 2008 was a really big year if I remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: If Big Joe B says it, RUN! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Just glad a right-mover wouldn't ride the warm front. At least it wouldn't according to the wind profile... not sure if the warm front would help in any way to make it ride down the warm front. I think that's a lot to ask for a warm front. Hope no right movers but you never know around this time of year especially as we head into May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: 2008 was a really big year if I remember correctly 2008 was also a La Nina year too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 Mean Supercell Composite is at a 15 in Central Oklahoma on the 18z GEFS, could this be enough to break the cap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: 2008 was a really big year if I remember correctly One could say that. Ended up with almost 2200 tornadoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 The GFS has the Cap in Kansas breakable, but it's almost unbreakable in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 27, 2022 Author Share Posted April 27, 2022 32 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The GFS has the Cap in Kansas breakable, but it's almost unbreakable in Oklahoma. It's breakable in OK at 21z though which seems to be the trend here. The question is if storms can form early enough to take advantage of it or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: It's breakable in OK at 21z though which seems to be the trend here. The question is if storms can form early enough to take advantage of it or not That's what I was about to say, if a boundary initiates convection, or otherwise, i'm not sure how many different mechanism can help initiate storms, then we could see a 2-3 hour window before the cap gets too strong. 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Neoncyclone said: That's what I was about to say, if a boundary initiates convection, or otherwise, i'm not sure how many different mechanism can help initiate storms, then we could see a 2-3 hour window before the cap gets too strong. 21z Like ICT said, a strong dryline along with some influences from the strength of the system/jet streak (diffluence, jet streak-forced divergence aloft, etc) should be enough for at least some storms. If they're floating the possibility of too many storms resulting in a quick qlcs, then it's just gonna come down to how long they can stay discrete and how long they can exist before they become elevated or dissipate. Also... they mention large scale forcing should weaken the cap. I'd imagine that's something that only mesoscale models should be able to handle once they properly handle the strength of the system Edited April 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 0z HRRR is loading which will go through Friday 7pm Central. Not expecting to see cells at this point knowing the HRRR, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 KIND Hinting at possible severe weather Saturday Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 - Active weather pattern with rain chances through the period - Strong thunderstorms possible on Saturday. Friday and Saturday The long term will begin with an upper-level ridge situated over the region. Despite the ridging, we`ll see increasing chances of precip as a warm front lifts northward within the ridge. At the same time, a large stacked low pressure system is modeled to be situated off the New England coast. This feature will allow the jet stream to amplify slightly, and for the overall progression of the warm front to slow down. As the front settles over Indiana, isentropic lift and moisture advection should continue through Friday evening. A chance of showers will be carried over from the short term. To our west, a strong shortwave trough is expected to eject from the Rockies midday Friday. Cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies initiates at roughly the same time. The resulting surface low then quickly intensifies and occludes within the upper-level shortwave. On Saturday, the now stacked low pressure system will gradually pinwheel its way eastward towards Indiana. Dynamic forcing enters the picture in addition to the ongoing isentropic lift, leading to higher rain and thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon along the system`s attendant cold front. Will have to keep an eye on severe potential since soundings show modest shear within the buoyant warm sector ahead of the front. Any storms that develop within this environment have the chance to become strong or even severe. Sunday and Monday Saturday`s closed low departs to the east, allowing for a period of quiet weather as high pressure builds in. Any ridging behind Saturday`s system is expected to be brief, given the rather progressive upper-level pattern that develops in its wake. Another potent shortwave trough should eject from the Rockies late Sunday night, or even early Monday morning, albeit further south than the previous one. Clouds and precip chances then quickly increase, and chance PoPs have been introduced after about 18z Monday. At this point, guidance begins to diverge regarding strength and position of the shortwave trough. Will leave PoPs in the chance category for now until confidence increases. Monday through Wednesday A majority of guidance continues to show progressive flow into the middle of the week. Given the active pattern, will keep slight to chance PoPs in the forecast through the end of the period. Some models depict a third shortwave emerging from the Rockies around this time, but lack of consensus leads to rather low confidence regarding any details. The pattern aloft generally supports continued active weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 Cute little supercell in the Texas Panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 28, 2022 I'm surprised 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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