ElectricStorm Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed May 04 2022 Areas affected...Parts of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas into southwestern Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 176... Valid 041926Z - 042130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 176 continues. SUMMARY...Increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development through 4-6 PM CDT, including a few supercells posing a risk for large, damaging hail and tornadoes, one or two of which could become strong. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of an additional tornado watch to east of 176. DISCUSSION...Substantive boundary-layer modification is ongoing across much of southern through central Oklahoma in response to warming and moistening. Based on thermal fields in the Rapid Refresh in the 925-850 mb layer, one baroclinic zone is becoming better defined across/north of the I-44 corridor of southwestern Oklahoma through I-40 corridor of eastern Oklahoma. However, another weaker baroclinic zone appears to be shifting northward across northern Texas into the the Red River Valley vicinity. Richer boundary-layer moisture (including surface dew points around 70F) probably will remain focused along and south of this boundary. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates on the northern periphery of a plume of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, boundary-layer based CAPE appears in the process of increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg along this corridor. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-level warm advection, and the east-northeastward migrating subtropical perturbation, intensifying thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely near/north of the Red River Valley, eastward toward the Ark-La-Tex, through 21-23Z. Given 30-50 kt flow veering with height in the 850-500 mb layer, atop modest backed (east-southeasterly) surface winds, hodographs probably will become conducive to supercells capable of producing large, damaging hail and a couple of tornadoes, one or two of which could become strong. ..Kerr.. 05/04/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 Whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 4, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2022 Moderate risk expanded east. Barely any 10% hatched left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Holy moly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Whoa Yeah I kind of saw that coming, strong warm-frontal zone, models showing supercells riding that frontal zone into Central Oklahoma, rather than a warm sector overspreading Oklahoma and then supercells forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Tornado watch for the 2% in S Tx along the dryline as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 Just now, Neoncyclone said: Yeah I kind of saw that coming, strong warm-frontal zone, models showing supercells riding that frontal zone into Central Oklahoma, rather than a warm sector overspreading Oklahoma and then supercells forming. Yeah once that second round of morning convection that the models had didn't materialize I was wondering if they were going to move it east. Wasn't expecting it to go almost to AR though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Yeah once that second round of morning convection that the models had didn't materialize I was wondering if they were going to move it east. Wasn't expecting it to go almost to AR though I'm sure that the 3-4 PM special soundings are needed soon for OUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 (edited) Even after Sundown, there's still a serious threat for Severe Storms overnight. Edited May 4, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Looks like a hail producer firing up east of Amarillo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Current hodos… Might be a long evening down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 4, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2022 (edited) This might be the beginning of the intense/long-lived supercell or a dud of a cell that’s testing the water Edited May 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: This might be the beginning of the intense/long-lived supercell or a dud of a cell that’s testing the water That one Supercell that was shrinking came back with a vengeance the other night over Central Oklahoma. This could do the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 4, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2022 That cell was just a feeler. Got lightning now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: That cell was just a feeler. Got lightning now That first storm may have weakened the cap for the other 2 to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Just split apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 4, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2022 Impressive rain producers up here. Just had about a half inch in 15 minutes with the last round of storms. Total so far today is around 1.5". Looks like we could see another 1-2" through tomorrow. Already dealing with some flooding here, could get bad further into the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 Definitely feeling more like a typical severe weather day now. Warm and muggy. Now the question is will we get warm sector cells to take advantage of it before the main line gets here tonight... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 I think we have ourselves a warm sector supercell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 4, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2022 21z OUN sounding shows weak low-level instability but very strong shear. Reasonable to assume thermo profile is more favorable further south with the wind profile probably not changing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 That cell SE of me looks like it's getting it's act together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 This storm in Texas probably has pretty good hail, is guess tornado potential is starting to increase as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 Cell east of Amarillo is looking nasty. Might produce soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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