April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[ElectricStorm]

Can't post right now but 13z HRRR... Wow. Looking pretty nasty. It keeps going back and forth so we'll see what happens
I still have doubts about warm front placement but I'd be surprised not to see a 15 hatched at some point today for the western parts of the current 10 hatched area

[ClicheVortex2014]

Moderate risk or not, still looking like a dangerous, busy day

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[ElectricStorm]

15 hatched for SW OK/NW TX. Wouldn't be surprised to see it expand east if model trends continue 

[TLChip]

Looks like it’s going to be an active afternoon today. 
 

Radar

Sigtor

Updraft Helicity 

Edited May 4, 2022 by TLChip

[ElectricStorm]

Oh

Edited May 4, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[Iceresistance]

7 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Oh

That one storm on the 2nd frame may be looking like it's producing DVD sized hail, the upcoming watch may have that feature again.

[ClicheVortex2014]

I’m not one to wonder about a PDS watch on moderate risk days because it’s very nuanced but this is an exception. Shear is crazy which should support classic, long-lived supercells and the storm mode should allow that for at least a few hours.

Edited May 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I’m not one to wonder about a PDS watch on moderate risk days because it’s very nuanced but this is an exception. Shear is crazy which should support classic, long-lived supercells and the storm mode should allow that for at least a few hours.

The 12z OUN sounding already had MU CAPE over 2000, yet to see on the Noon sounding

[Neoncyclone]

3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I’m not one to wonder about a PDS watch on moderate risk days because it’s very nuanced but this is an exception. Shear is crazy which should support classic, long-lived supercells and the storm mode should allow that for at least a few hours.

I was wondering the same thing, I think they maybe don't do it, I know we're going to see high probabilities regardless. Morning convection has pretty well moved out of Oklahoma, looks like the HRRR proves more useful than all the other CAMs again. 

[snowlover2]

Kinda surprised it took this long to add the moderate.

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Kinda surprised it took this long to add the moderate.

They likely wanted to make sure that the morning convection had very little to no effect on this potential setup.

[NWsnowhio]

EF0 tornado confirmed on the ground for 7 miles yesterday near Findlay, Ohio. I snapped a photo of the storm looking that direction while it was on the ground. Alas, I was just a tad too far away to see the little guy doing its thing. Was pretty close to checking off a bucket list item of seeing one in person. I'd prefer to see the "baby" ones this close to home though!

[Neoncyclone]

The start looks a little messy for south-central Oklahoma, but things organize pretty rapidly on the latest HRRR run. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

7 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

The start looks a little messy for south-central Oklahoma, but things organize pretty rapidly on the latest HRRR run. 

TX panhandle/SW OK tho… whew

[Cincysnow]

New MD, 80% chance of watch in Texas panhandle

Spoiler

Mesoscale Discussion 0640 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Wed May 04 2022 Areas affected...Parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 041733Z - 042030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms, including a few supercells, appear likely to initiate within the next few hours, posing a risk for large, damaging hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes through 2-4 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Large-scale mid/upper troughing, with a number of embedded short wave perturbations, continues to slowly shift across and east of the Rockies. The leading edge of this cyclonic regime is already overspreading the higher plains, including the Panhandles vicinity into Texas South Plains, where southwesterly wind speeds are increasing in excess of 50 kt around the 500 mb level. Within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, stronger daytime heating and mixing is increasingly underway. As this continues, the dryline will continue to sharpen in a corridor across the Texas South Plains, into the vicinity of a zone of continuing differential surface heating, west of Childress northwestward toward Dalhart. Moistening along and east of these boundaries, and steepening lapse rates associated with stronger heating to the west, will continue to contribute to rapid destabilization during the next few hours. Various model output, including the last few runs of the high-resolution Rapid Refresh, suggest that storms probably will begin to initiate by 19-21Z. Supercell development may be fairly rapid, with initial storms posing a risk for large, potentially damaging hail. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, but the more substantive tornado potential probably will evolve later this afternoon into the evening.

 

 

[Iceresistance]

There's already 2 big storms racing in Western Oklahoma right now

[ClicheVortex2014]

2 minutes ago, Cincysnow said:

New MD, 80% chance of watch in Texas panhandle

  Reveal hidden contents

Mesoscale Discussion 0640 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Wed May 04 2022 Areas affected...Parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 041733Z - 042030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms, including a few supercells, appear likely to initiate within the next few hours, posing a risk for large, damaging hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes through 2-4 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Large-scale mid/upper troughing, with a number of embedded short wave perturbations, continues to slowly shift across and east of the Rockies. The leading edge of this cyclonic regime is already overspreading the higher plains, including the Panhandles vicinity into Texas South Plains, where southwesterly wind speeds are increasing in excess of 50 kt around the 500 mb level. Within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, stronger daytime heating and mixing is increasingly underway. As this continues, the dryline will continue to sharpen in a corridor across the Texas South Plains, into the vicinity of a zone of continuing differential surface heating, west of Childress northwestward toward Dalhart. Moistening along and east of these boundaries, and steepening lapse rates associated with stronger heating to the west, will continue to contribute to rapid destabilization during the next few hours. Various model output, including the last few runs of the high-resolution Rapid Refresh, suggest that storms probably will begin to initiate by 19-21Z. Supercell development may be fairly rapid, with initial storms posing a risk for large, potentially damaging hail. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, but the more substantive tornado potential probably will evolve later this afternoon into the evening.

 

 

I get it’s for the initial convection but 20% chance of no watch seems generous

[ElectricStorm]

60/40 probs

[Neoncyclone]

Tornado watch for Tx panhandle and W OK, The image hasn't loaded here's probabilities

 

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[ClicheVortex2014]

Watch those backed surface winds 

[Neoncyclone]

Wow the 18z HRRR. If I had to bet on one thing definitely happening today, id say it's a couple monster supercells in the panhandle. 

Also that warm-frontal zone now has a couple of supercells just south clearly in the warm sector, bad news considering the NWS is already expecting the frontal zone itself to be conducive for tornadoes.

 

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Iceresistance]

Supercell over Amarillo, TX

[ElectricStorm]

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Hodographs are getting there. Need some improvement. They’ll get there