April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[Neoncyclone]

51 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

The potential for Monday is insane

Such an expansive warm sector

Edited May 3, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[ClicheVortex2014]

I didn't read the latest day 2 outlook too thoroughly so I'm just now noticing this but it sounds like strong tornadoes might be able to continue through the evening hours tomorrow. Somewhat unusual for the Plains because of the cap.

This may be a favored area for isolated tornadic supercells
   prior to the surging cold front intercepting around 03Z. Steep
   midlevel lapse rates as well as robust shear and 200-300 m2/s2
   effective SRH in the warm front zone to the east may sustain storms
   despite an increase in capping, with strong tornadoes possible.
   Eventually, a squall line is expected to form along the cold front,
   with damaging winds possibly overspreading much of OK.

Edited May 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

It looks like that the outflow boundary/gust front is moving in from the south

[ClicheVortex2014]

13 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It looks like that the outflow boundary/gust front is moving in from the south

The cold pool developed and then, as they like to do, they follow the unstable air. Probably didn't go south because of some complication with the southern Florida tip with sea breeze or differential heating due to sea/land differences

Edited May 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Cincysnow]

19 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

The cold pool developed and then, as they like to do, they follow the unstable air. Probably didn't go south because of some complication with the southern Florida tip with sea breeze or differential heating due to sea/land differences

Florida is a different animal when it comes to thunderstorms

[ClicheVortex2014]

Despite having a swath of severe weather coming through this afternoon, ILN recovered. Not nearly as unstable as earlier but still enough for some thunder. Can thank continued low-level moisture advection and spotty cloud breaks. Pathetic mid-level lapse rates holds us back from a multi-round severe weather day.

[Michelle]

I just noticed a bunch of you have removed your locations....is there a reason?

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 minute ago, Michelle said:

I just noticed a bunch of you have removed your locations....is there a reason?

Mine got removed for me and I suspect the same with others

Edited May 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

Holy.... I think we'll see an upgrade, and also I really hope this doesn't verify. 

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Cincysnow]

With the last push of rain, i’m over 2” in 24 hours

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

12 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Holy.... I think we'll see an upgrade, and also I really hope this doesn't verify. 

 

Tomorrow has a different feel to me than the events over the past few weeks. I think it's gonna be a pretty big, widespread event. Wind profile reminds me of Dixie Alley events with the low-level shear and deep-layer shear.

Edited May 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

The potential for Monday is insane

With that much instability in May along with a powerful jet. That's a very volatile setup

[Neoncyclone]

Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Tomorrow has a different feel to me than the events over the past few weeks. I think it's gonna be a pretty big, widespread event. Wind profile reminds me of recent Dixie Alley events with the low-level shear and deep-layer shear.

I definitely agree, I think there's even a decent tornado threat on the warm-front as it lifts over Central Oklahoma, as well as a couple discrete cells in Eastern Oklahoma and several in Texas. In terms of CAMs I trust the HRRR over all other but if the other 00z CAMs show a similar mix of discrete/semi-discrete convection i'll be pretty much convinced on a high end event, already kind of am. 

[Neoncyclone]

Interestingly the 3km NAM keeps the warm-front from even entering Oklahoma, morning storms keep the atmosphere stable. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Chinook]

I do not know where this is, but might have been along with the northern Ohio bookend vortex.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

3 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I do not know where this is, but might have been along with the northern Ohio bookend vortex.

 

ILN actually liked and retweeted what appears to be the original source. Can't think of where Ashville is off the top of my head but since it was tagged with ILN, liked and retweeted by them, I'm assuming it's in the swath of severe weather starting in southwest Ohio

Dunno which way is west in this photo but I'm seeing debris spread out in one direction which suggests straight-line wind damage. Obviously, I'm not trained in surveying and ILN will be out there I'm sure.

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

2 hours ago, Neoncyclone said:

Holy.... I think we'll see an upgrade, and also I really hope this doesn't verify. 

 

😬

 

That's a lot less messy midday convection compared to previous runs... I'm still feeling a little iffy about the northern extent of it but yeah someone's probably going to get a 15 hatched...

[Neoncyclone]

01,02,03z HRRR all still showing little morning convection in Oklahoma. 

Here's the 03z which goes right up until initiation in West and South Texas.

Edited May 4, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

ILN actually liked and retweeted what appears to be the original source. Can't think of where Ashville is off the top of my head but since it was tagged with ILN, liked and retweeted by them, I'm assuming it's in the swath of severe weather starting in southwest Ohio

Dunno which way is west in this photo but I'm seeing debris spread out in one direction which suggests straight-line wind damage. Obviously, I'm not trained in surveying and ILN will be out there I'm sure.

 

Surprisingly, then, that's within my 25 mile radius for the severe weather contest. I picked Columbus, which is a city I have been to, as opposed to nearly every other place I pick for the contest. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

No day 1 moderate but they do mention the potential for it later

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0100 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2022  
  
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF  
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE  
HAIL SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE EASTERN  
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN,  
CENTRAL, AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN  
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,  
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY FROM THE ROCKIES  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL  
SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS  
MUCH OF OK/KS BY THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW SHOULD DEVELOP  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY,  
WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS WEST TX. A  
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS TX AND INTO PARTS OF OK/AR BY  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO ITS  
SOUTH. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE SURFACE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY  
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
   
..SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS  
  
A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
TODAY, WITH MULTIPLE CORRIDORS AND ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP EARLY  
THIS MORNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE NORTH OF  
THE WARM FRONT, IT WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE  
PRESENCE OF MODERATE MUCAPE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ANY MORNING  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO ACT TO LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE  
WARM FRONT ACROSS OK, AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT  
BY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING REMAINS A SOURCE OF CONSIDERABLE  
UNCERTAINTY.  
  
THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH  
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A CORRIDOR OF AT LEAST  
MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS PRESENT ALONG/EAST ACROSS TX AND  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SUPERCELLS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND  
40-50+ KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALL SUGGEST THAT THESE SUPERCELLS  
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS  
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN OK BY THIS  
EVENING, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A LOW-LEVEL  
JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THE EARLY EVENING  
ACROSS THIS REGION. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ELONGATED  
HODOGRAPHS WILL LIKELY FOSTER UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH ANY CELLS THAT  
CAN REMAIN DISCRETE, AND THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR  
FORECAST, WITH EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 200-300+ M2/S2, SOME OF THESE  
TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG.  
  
THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FORM  
IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING  
AND AFTERNOON AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS  
THIS AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN FORM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM  
FRONT WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, ALTHOUGH THE  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST THROUGH THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF ANY EARLY DAY CONVECTION  
WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TX. IF THUNDERSTORMS  
REMAIN RELATIVELY SPARSE THROUGH MID DAY, AS SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO LIFT FARTHER  
NORTH IN CENTRAL/EASTERN OK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS MAY  
FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL/EASTERN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON  
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET  
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WOULD BE THE MAIN  
THREATS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS IF THEY FORM, AND A COUPLE STRONG  
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW  
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS, WITH GREATER DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.  
  
AT THIS POINT, THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF  
THE WARM FRONT LATER TODAY, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY DAY  
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR, TO INCLUDE GREATER TORNADO AND/OR  
SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITIES. BUT, A MORE FOCUSED MESOSCALE CORRIDOR OF  
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT ACROSS SOME PORTION  
OF THE ENHANCED RISK.  

 

[Neoncyclone]

2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

No day 1 moderate but they do mention the potential for it later

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0100 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2022  
  
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF  
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE  
HAIL SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE EASTERN  
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN,  
CENTRAL, AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN  
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,  
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY FROM THE ROCKIES  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL  
SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS  
MUCH OF OK/KS BY THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW SHOULD DEVELOP  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY,  
WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS WEST TX. A  
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS TX AND INTO PARTS OF OK/AR BY  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO ITS  
SOUTH. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE SURFACE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY  
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
   
..SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS  
  
A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
TODAY, WITH MULTIPLE CORRIDORS AND ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP EARLY  
THIS MORNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE NORTH OF  
THE WARM FRONT, IT WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE  
PRESENCE OF MODERATE MUCAPE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ANY MORNING  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO ACT TO LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE  
WARM FRONT ACROSS OK, AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT  
BY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING REMAINS A SOURCE OF CONSIDERABLE  
UNCERTAINTY.  
  
THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH  
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A CORRIDOR OF AT LEAST  
MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS PRESENT ALONG/EAST ACROSS TX AND  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SUPERCELLS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND  
40-50+ KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALL SUGGEST THAT THESE SUPERCELLS  
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS  
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN OK BY THIS  
EVENING, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A LOW-LEVEL  
JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THE EARLY EVENING  
ACROSS THIS REGION. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ELONGATED  
HODOGRAPHS WILL LIKELY FOSTER UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH ANY CELLS THAT  
CAN REMAIN DISCRETE, AND THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR  
FORECAST, WITH EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 200-300+ M2/S2, SOME OF THESE  
TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG.  
  
THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FORM  
IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING  
AND AFTERNOON AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS  
THIS AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN FORM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM  
FRONT WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, ALTHOUGH THE  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST THROUGH THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF ANY EARLY DAY CONVECTION  
WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TX. IF THUNDERSTORMS  
REMAIN RELATIVELY SPARSE THROUGH MID DAY, AS SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO LIFT FARTHER  
NORTH IN CENTRAL/EASTERN OK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS MAY  
FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL/EASTERN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON  
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET  
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WOULD BE THE MAIN  
THREATS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS IF THEY FORM, AND A COUPLE STRONG  
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW  
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS, WITH GREATER DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.  
  
AT THIS POINT, THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF  
THE WARM FRONT LATER TODAY, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY DAY  
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR, TO INCLUDE GREATER TORNADO AND/OR  
SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITIES. BUT, A MORE FOCUSED MESOSCALE CORRIDOR OF  
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT ACROSS SOME PORTION  
OF THE ENHANCED RISK.  

 

I agree with this, 00z CAMs all kept the warm sector south except for HRRR, and while I do trust it the most, it is the outlier right now. 

 

[Neoncyclone]

06z HRRR

Edited May 4, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[ElectricStorm]

The entire eastern half of the 10 hatched will probably be dealing with convection/cloud cover issues for most of if not all of the day. HRRR has shifted towards bringing the main line in a few hours later than earlier runs now which looks like a wind threat but not much tornado threat for C OK. Overall I'd say the best chance for a tornado is in NW TX and maybe SW OK if something can form in the warm sector. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ElectricStorm]

Morning convection is much stronger than HRRR has. Some of it is even severe warned. 

Although it is moving out of the 10 hatched area pretty quickly 

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by OKwx_2001