April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[Ingyball]

2 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

10 hatched tornado area up for tomorrow for SW OK and NW TX. Pretty large enhanced risk up for Thursday east of here as well. 

Sunday and Monday are also highlighted by SPC now, it's a long way out but it's looking very dangerous. Active pattern continues...

The thing to watch for next week is how much rain the Central and Southern Plains gets this week. One of our mets here did some research on + weekly precip anomalies leading into very active patterns. It can help support larger outbreaks as it's easier to get moisture to return when the ground is wet.  

[FortySixAnd32]

ILN:

 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As daytime heating in the warm sector ahead of the approaching surface low kicks in this afternoon, storms will become stronger with favorable wind profiles. Lapse rates this afternoon will increase as an influx of low level moisture persists over the region ahead of the approaching low. Generally expecting line segments to evolve later today, but the favorable wind profile could support some isolated supercell activity in the southeastern CWA. Damaging winds are the likely result of the strongest storms, but large hail cannot be ruled out. If supercells develop, tornadic activity may come into play in the late afternoon and early evening. Highs may top 80 degrees in the far southeast over Scioto and Lewis counties, with mid to upper 70s expected along and southeast of the I-71 corridor, and lower 70s to the northwest. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Storms along and ahead of the front will continue to pose a threat for severe conditions this evening, but lapse rates will be on the decrease and the front will exit southeastern and southern CWA before midnight. Upper level winds will not be as strong to help support storms, and the severe threat will rapidly decrease after 8 pm

[junior]

Lots of MCV debris this morning. It better clear up fast if we want to see stuff this way later.

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, junior said:

Lots of MCV debris this morning. It better clear up fast if we want to see stuff this way later.

Looks like clouds are starting to break

[Cincysnow]

Good dose of rain this morning 

[Cincysnow]

10 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Looks like clouds are starting to break

Sun is peaking out here, good clearing to our south/southwest

[Cincysnow]

ILN’s latest update: 

Spoiler

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

Initial round of convection, sub-severe and supported by warm and moist advection, will continue to lift to the northeast through southwest and central Ohio through the remainder of the morning/midday hours. Some heavy downpours will occur as these move through, although no flooding is expected. We are already seeing signs of clearing/breaks in the clouds across portions of northern Kentucky and this will translate to the north into the afternoon hours. Breaks will help boost instability, with guidance suggesting at least pockets of higher CAPE/instability, particularly along and east of a tighter instability gradient that may set up near the I-71 corridor this afternoon, and supporting organization of convection. Areas that have seen clearing the longest and destabilize the soonest will likely see the first signs of convective initiation early this afternoon, most likely between 12pm and 2pm and within the Tri-state area. Activity initially may be discrete, but eventually would likely morph into multi-cells or even somewhat linear/line segment activity later this afternoon. There may be multiple rounds as well, with the actual cold front really not making into the CWA until early evening, so can`t rule out convection until the front actually moves through. The primary severe weather window looks to be around or shortly after noon until about 8 pm. Damaging straight line winds will be the primary threat, however instances of large hail and even a couple of tornadoes will be possible particularly with convection that may be discrete. Given the fact that convection is expected to be progressive, the risk for flooding is relatively low. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s north to near 80 further south into northern Kentucky.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Sun is out let’s go 

[FortySixAnd32]

@ClicheVortex2014 @Cincysnow @StormfanaticInd I have a track meet at 5pm this evening in Newark. Administration is asking my thoughts. Can I get a little help fellas??? Thanks in advance!!

Edited May 3, 2022 by FortySixAnd32

[Cincysnow]

17 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

@ClicheVortex2014 @Cincysnow @StormfanaticInd I have a track meet at 5pm this evening in Newark. Administration is asking my thoughts. Can I get a little help fellas??? Thanks in advance!!

Here is the H Triple R (HRRR) at that time: 

[FortySixAnd32]

1 minute ago, Cincysnow said:

Here is the H Triple R (HRRR) at that time: 

Ugh!!

[Cincysnow]

12 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

Ugh!!

Idk if thats much help lol i’d say it will be iffy (pretty sure that doesnt help either) 

[StormfanaticInd]

Watching these cells to my west. Hopefully I can get a good thunderstorm today 😁

[Roger89]

8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Watching these cells to my west. Hopefully I can get a good thunderstorm today 😁

Bright sunshine here in southern Indiana for now.

[Bman10]

Not much clearing  here in huber. 

[Iceresistance]

Seminole nearly got DVD sized hail, but 4 inches would smash your roof!

Edited May 3, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Cincysnow]

New MD out: 

Spoiler

Mesoscale Discussion 0633 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue May 03 2022 Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Indiana...adjacent portions of Ohio and Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031730Z - 031930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong storms may gradually evolve through 3-5 PM EDT, posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind. The overall threat appears generally marginal, and it is not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...A modest surface cyclone north of Danville IL is forecast to continue slowly migrating east-northeastward toward the Fort Wayne IN area during the next few hours, ahead of the main mid-level short wave trough now turning east of the middle Mississippi Valley. Within the warm sector of this low, ahead of a trailing surface cold front, deepening convective development is evident, as the boundary-layer begins to destabilize more substantively. Instability is largely being driven by insolation beneath weak mid-level cooling. Lapse rates are generally weak, but it appears that surface dew points in the lower to mid 60s F may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear beneath 40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, the environment may become increasingly conducive to organizing convection. Although flow around 850 mb remains strong (on the order of 40 kt), it is generally veered and likely to maintain a considerable westerly component, with forecast soundings indicating low-level hodographs trending more linear through this afternoon. While this appears likely to limit the risk for tornadoes, stronger storms may pose at least some risk for severe hail and potentially damaging surface gusts.

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

1 minute ago, Cincysnow said:

New MD out: 

  Reveal hidden contents

Mesoscale Discussion 0633 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue May 03 2022 Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Indiana...adjacent portions of Ohio and Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031730Z - 031930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong storms may gradually evolve through 3-5 PM EDT, posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind. The overall threat appears generally marginal, and it is not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...A modest surface cyclone north of Danville IL is forecast to continue slowly migrating east-northeastward toward the Fort Wayne IN area during the next few hours, ahead of the main mid-level short wave trough now turning east of the middle Mississippi Valley. Within the warm sector of this low, ahead of a trailing surface cold front, deepening convective development is evident, as the boundary-layer begins to destabilize more substantively. Instability is largely being driven by insolation beneath weak mid-level cooling. Lapse rates are generally weak, but it appears that surface dew points in the lower to mid 60s F may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear beneath 40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, the environment may become increasingly conducive to organizing convection. Although flow around 850 mb remains strong (on the order of 40 kt), it is generally veered and likely to maintain a considerable westerly component, with forecast soundings indicating low-level hodographs trending more linear through this afternoon. While this appears likely to limit the risk for tornadoes, stronger storms may pose at least some risk for severe hail and potentially damaging surface gusts.

 

 

20 percent chance of a watch. Well at least it's a chance🤔

[ElectricStorm]

I have strong doubts about the northern half of the 10 hatched but we'll see. Dangerous day either way though if the cap breaks, which SPC seems to think it will 

[snowlover2]

Can’t post it but MD out for west/sw Ohio for 80% chance of a watch likely tornado.

[Sam]

[Neoncyclone]

21 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

I have strong doubts about the northern half of the 10 hatched but we'll see. Dangerous day either way though if the cap breaks, which SPC seems to think it will 

I bring 12z CAMs 😄 

Another complex forecast for Oklahoma but quite a few of the CAMs are on board

HRRR

HRW-FV3

NSSL

HRW-ARW

 

[snowlover2]

Cells popping in SE IN/ S OH/ N KY. One warning near Washington Court House.

[Sam]

Mesoscale Discussion 0634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CDT Tue May 03 2022 Areas affected...Parts of western into central Ohio and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 031757Z - 032000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A few supercells may gradually develop across parts of the middle into upper Ohio Valley through late afternoon. Some of these may pose a risk of producing tornadoes, in addition to large hail, including around the Dayton OH area as early as 21-22Z. DISCUSSION...A southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric speed maximum, and associated cyclonic vorticity center to its northwest, are in the process of migrating north-northeast of the Ohio River, toward the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region. While the boundary layer across much of Ohio into the upper Ohio Valley is generally cool and stable, destabilization is ongoing along and northeast of a warm frontal zone across southwestern Ohio, in the immediate wake of the initial perturbation. With the primary upstream mid-level short wave trough turning east of the middle Mississippi Valley, the warm sector of an associated surface cyclone appears likely to continue to attempt to spread northeastward across Ohio. Through 21-22Z, it appears that the warm frontal zone may become a focus for increasing boundary-layer destabilization and intensifying thunderstorm development near the Dayton OH area. This is where latest Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that at least some backing and strengthening of flow around 850 mb may contribute to enlarging clockwise curved hodographs. It appears that the environment may become conducive to supercells with the potential to produce tornadoes, in addition to severe hail, with a tendency to gradually develop east-northeastward into early evening.

[Michelle]

There's our watch....