April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[cer5059]

Two tornado warnings for that one cell!

[TLChip]

Could be something to watch if it gets alone

[voltwaffle]

Nice mammatus shot as the storms move away

[snowlover2]

0z HRRR for tomorrow.

[Neoncyclone]

Phew it's trying again

 

[snowlover2]

Quote

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
808 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     HAIL             SEMINOLE                35.23N 96.67W
05/02/2022  E4.00 INCH       SEMINOLE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

19 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Could be something to watch if it gets alone

Watching this one very closely. It has that look

[FortySixAnd32]

6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Watching this one very closely. It has that look

I mentioned that earlier. Needs to turn right if it's going to get going!

Edited May 3, 2022 by FortySixAnd32

[ClicheVortex2014]

First look at HRRR for Wednesday is... something. Any supercell in northern Texas has nasty potential.

[Cincysnow]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

First look at HRRR for Wednesday is... something. Any supercell in northern Texas has nasty potential.

Wow, ok then, wasnt expecting that

[Sentinel]

33 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

 

4 inches...?

[ClicheVortex2014]

12 minutes ago, Cincysnow said:

Wow, ok then, wasnt expecting that

I posted earlier but it's worth repeating that Wednesday has something the previous events haven't had; deep-layer shear. Should make for  classic supercells and possibly longer-lived supercells/longer-tracked tornadoes.

This is from 12z NAM because 0z is still loading but I doubt the deep-layer shear will change of any significance. 

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Really glad the crashing cold front helped limit the overall tornado potential today. Looks like there were a few weak tornadoes over rural areas earlier with the Seminole storm the only one that looked strong. I'm guessing that one will be EF2+ but we'll have to see what the survey finds. 

From a local standpoint however this was a pretty big overperformance. Solid storm this morning followed by the tornadic supercell passing just south of me but still getting some rain from it and then a fantastic squall line to finish it off. Could have done without the tor warning, but it's not very often you get 3 rounds of solid storms in one day. Chasers will probably see today as a pretty big disappointment but besides the damage near Seminole (hopefully it's not that bad) this was a pretty solid event for me. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

16 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I posted earlier but it's worth repeating that Wednesday has something the previous events haven't had; deep-layer shear. Should make for  classic supercells and possibly longer-lived supercells/longer-tracked tornadoes.

This is from 12z NAM because 0z is still loading but I doubt the deep-layer shear will change of any significance. 

 

Yeah really nothing significant changed.

 

If it weren't for the past 3 hours, I'd be wondering if Ohio could compete with the number of tornadoes tomorrow. It's rare we get discrete or semi-discrete cells and when we do it usually produces something interesting because the lack of it is usually the limiting factor. But I don't think we can compete with the number of tornadoes over the past few hours or their strength (likely no higher than EF2 IMO). I'm sure there'll be some tornado warnings but nothing big. If we can somehow get NAM/HRRR-like instability and locally backed surface winds, then maybe. But I see no reason for the latter.

Edited May 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Sjould be so good thunderstorms tomorrow morning at least for me⛈️

Edited May 3, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[ClicheVortex2014]

29 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Really glad the crashing cold front helped limit the overall tornado potential today. Looks like there were a few weak tornadoes over rural areas earlier with the Seminole storm the only one that looked strong. I'm guessing that one will be EF2+ but we'll have to see what the survey finds. 

From a local standpoint however this was a pretty big overperformance. Solid storm this morning followed by the tornadic supercell passing just south of me but still getting some rain from it and then a fantastic squall line to finish it off. Could have done without the tor warning, but it's not very often you get 3 rounds of solid storms in one day. Chasers will probably see today as a pretty big disappointment but besides the damage near Seminole (hopefully it's not that bad) this was a pretty solid event for me. 

I wish ENSO climatology didn't favor dissipation in January/February. It's been nice this year with this La Nina because it's just maintaining its strength. We saw the severe weather season start out very active in the climatologically favored area in March, and the ENSO really didn't change so it was safe to suspect it would continue to be active in the climatologically favored areas. The South got devastated through March and the first half of April, then the climatology bullseye shifted to your region, and well... now you're in the thick of it. 

Since my region is part of the next bullseye, I'm not sure how I feel because it'll be MCS season... but we've also had tornado outbreaks in June so I don't want to tempt fate too much. Also hard to shake off some similarities to 2012 when we ended up with something like 4 derechos in 3 weeks.

Edited May 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Quite the LEWP-y squall. I could at least 3 bows. Could be a tornado with any one of them... most likely on the northern part of the bow. Also can't discount any warm sector cell. 

[ElectricStorm]

Looking ahead to Wednesday, CAMs usually aren't that great this far out, but it seems to me like it's a somewhat fine line between a very messy event with not a whole lot of tornado potential, or a potentially very dangerous event with numerous warm sector cells. It will be very interesting to see how the models handle this going forward. 

[Chinook]

MRMS-estimated maximum hail swaths from 0330z May 2 (last night) to 0330z May 3 (tonight). Sometimes this underestimates real hail sizes reported by spotters. The red is 30mm (over 1") and the magenta is 50mm (about 2")

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

0z GFS for the medium range is something else

 

[StormfanaticInd]

9 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

0z GFS for the medium range is something else

 

Showing plenty of instability(extreme?) to. 

[Neoncyclone]

I think that's an MCV passing to my south 

 

[Neoncyclone]

[snowlover2]

5% tornado area added to the southern half of Ohio today.

Quote

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1233 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A severe threat will be possible Tuesday mainly from Kentucky across
   Ohio and into western Pennsylvania. A few strong storms are also
   expected from southern Virginia into northern North Carolina and
   from western Tennessee into parts of Texas.

   ...Ohio Valley...

   Upper trough currently approaching the mid MS Valley will progress
   into the OH Valley by late afternoon as 500mb speed max translates
   across southern IL into OH ahead of the short wave. Associated
   surface low is expected to track into northern IN by 18z, then into
   OH before shifting into northwestern PA after sunset. Latest model
   guidance suggest boundary-layer heating will contribute to
   substantial steepening of low-level lapse rates across southern
   portions of the OH Valley and this will aid destabilization ahead of
   the surface front/short wave. Significant destabilization is
   forecast along a corridor from western KY into southern OH which
   will support robust convection along/ahead of the cold front.
   Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer flow with ample SRH for
   potential supercells, though a mixed storm mode is likely. Damaging
   wind should be the primary threat but one or two tornadoes are also
   possible if destabilization occurs as expected.

   ...Elsewhere...

   Isolated-scattered thunderstorms appear possible along the cold
   front as it advances into the western TN Valley, trailing into the
   Arklatex. While buoyancy will likely support a few robust storms,
   mid- high-level flow will be notably weaker across this region and
   organized severe is not expected. Though, gusty winds/hail may be
   noted with a few storms. 

   Some potential for a few strong/severe thunderstorms will also exist
   near the VA/NC border along a stalled front draped across this
   region. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected south of the front
   and this should allow surface parcels to reach their convective
   temperatures by 20z. 25-30kt of 500mb westerly flow could allow a
   few storms to organize near this boundary. Gusty winds and hail are
   the main threats.

   Strong heating across northern Mexico should contribute to
   convection developing over the higher terrain west of DRT where
   return flow remains moist. A few supercells could approach/cross the
   international border with an attendant threat for hail/wind, though
   most storms should remain southwest of the TX border.

   ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/03/2022

 

 

[ElectricStorm]

10 hatched tornado area up for tomorrow for SW OK and NW TX. I see a lot of bust potential though. Pretty large enhanced risk up for Thursday east of here as well. 

Sunday and Monday are also highlighted by SPC now, it's a long way out but it's looking very dangerous. Active pattern continues...

Edited May 3, 2022 by OKwx_2001