Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 3, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) Looks to me like an embedded supercell north of a bow echo. Really could go either way. The deal breaker would be if the bow echo surges out ahead of the supercells inflow. Obviously there's plenty of outflow... if the supercell can somehow get a surge of inflow, it can get nasty real quick. Edited May 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said: Looks to me like an embedded supercell north of a bow echo. Really could go either way. The deal breaker would be if the bow echo surges out ahead of the supercells inflow. Looks like it does want to just bow out, could see a brief tornado as it surges 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 3, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Looks like it does want to just bow out, could see a brief tornado as it surges Agreed. And with 2 scans in since that post, I think that's what we're seeing. The bow is cutting off the inflow region to the supercell. Could turn into a bookend vortex though and continue to try to produce tornadoes. Edited May 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) I say this a lot, because Easter Sunday was the most prolific event where this was constantly happening, but many of those storms produced tornadoes as lines bowed out south. looks the exact same but I think it's bowing out too fast for the supercell to keep up. Very lucky for Tulsa because we've seen what happens when the bow echo doesn't stray too far away from the meso. Edited May 3, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) Wow and just like that, down but not out, looks like this southern supercell is re-orienting into maybe a favorable way, that being said, the line of storms are quickly catching up. Edited May 3, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 3, 2022 Author Share Posted May 3, 2022 Getting some decently strong wind now in S Norman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 5 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Is it just me or is NWS getting creative with hail sizes now? Apple sized hail expected. Still doesn't beat the DVD one though. I saw lime sized in their AFD last year. Fruit salad!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 3, 2022 Author Share Posted May 3, 2022 Sirens going off again but there's no warning???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 3, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said: I say this a lot, because Easter Sunday was the most prolific event where this was constantly happening, but many of those storms produced tornadoes as lines bowed out south. looks the exact same but I think it's bowing out too fast for the supercell to keep up. I know what you're saying but I think the case with that event is that embedded supercells developed, and the RFD surged and created a bowing segment to the south in the tornadogenesis process. That was especially well represented when the inflow notch developed as the supercell matured. The environment that squall entered into was ridiculously favorable for supercells, and that whole evolution was something I haven't seen since the morning portion of 4/27/11. If that was an embedded supercell here, the mesocyclone isn't going to just dissipate that quick. It's going to influence that bow echo, and I've seen it eventually turn into a bookend vortex 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 New radar scan, best inflow we've seen from this storm all day. Racing east staying just away from the line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Appears to be no more tornado warnings in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 3, 2022 Author Share Posted May 3, 2022 That was weird I don't know why they sounded them again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 3, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 12z GFS and Euro agree on another system next week that could be high-end and widespread Area average sounding 12z GFS. Checks off pretty much every box for significant tornadic supercells. I'd like to see (well, you know what I mean) more low-level instability but this is an area average sounding for a big area. 12z Euro has a similar setup but for a day later than GFS. And it's just dumb for Kansas. Might get that Gameboy Advanced size hail for Ingy. Edited May 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: 12z GFS and Euro agree on another system next week that could be high-end and widespread Area average sounding 12z GFS 12z Euro has a similar setup but for a day later than GFS. And it's just dumb for Kansas. Might get that Gameboy Advanced size hail for Ingy. Very glad we didn't see a significant tornado threat materialize today. Took note of this on the GFS earlier, the GFS even showing discrete/semi-discrete storm mode. EDIT: Whoops looks like the discrete/semi-discrete mode I saw is Wednesdays event for OK and Texas Edited May 3, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 3, 2022 Author Share Posted May 3, 2022 Awesome lightning show now. Other than the tor warning this has been a great day for storms here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 3, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 3, 2022 Just now, Neoncyclone said: Very glad we didn't see a significant tornado threat materialize today. Took note of this on the GFS earlier, the GFS even showing discrete/semi-discrete storm mode. That's when you know you might have a problem. When the 13km resolution GFS shows discrete convection 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: That's when you know you might have a problem. When the 13km resolution GFS shows discrete convection Ignore that, clearly i'm off my game as I was looking at the wrong time-frame lol. Edited May 3, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 3 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said: The right mover from the splitting cell near Watonga may have some pretty good potential. Not any storms merging into it like the one to it's north Hearing the word Watonga makes me want to break out in Samoan Dance!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Big contamination but this supercell, for now is interacting favorably with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 3, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Ignore that, clearly i'm off my game as I was looking at the wrong time-frame lol. Yeah after I posted that I looked back at precip, which I usually don't do for the GFS, and noticed that. Wasn't gonna say anything but hey, GFS is probably wrong... not us 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Can't tell if this is contamination, I think inflow is ramping up, got a visible wall cloud on news 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 That is kind of unique, that this long-lived supercell has collided with this substantial squall line, and we got some chasers showing us some shelf clouds in real time. hey! tornado warning at Brooksville!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 3, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 3, 2022 Round two for western Arkansas(?) Mesoscale Discussion 0628 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022 Areas affected...East-central Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 172... Valid 030027Z - 030200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues. SUMMARY...The isolated supercell east of Fort Smith, AR, continues to weaken as it moves north of the warm front. An increase in the low-level jet will try to push the warm front northward this evening. Additional storms may form along the warm front posing a tornado and isolated large hail threat. DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell continues east of Fort Smith, AR. This storm has weakened as it has slowly moved north of the warm front. With the low-level jet increasing this evening, some potential for the warm front to retreat northward exists. However, it seems unlikely to move fast enough for the current storm to restrengthen. KSRX has show an increase in showers in east-central Oklahoma. This is likely evidence of the increasing low-level jet into the boundary. Earlier guidance had suggested that additional storms could form early this evening. Should this occur, continued southeasterly winds at the surface and the increase in 850 flow would continue to support tornado potential. Mid-level lapse rates observed at LZK this evening would also support large hail with discrete storms. Later this evening ongoing storms in Oklahoma may approach western portions of WW 172. Damaging winds would be the most likely threat with this activity as storm mode will be much more linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Chinook said: That is kind of unique, that this long-lived supercell has collided with this substantial squall line, and we got some chasers showing us some shelf clouds in real time. hey! tornado warning at Brooksville!! There was a definite wallcloud, line has caught up though not sure anything can happen now. Edited May 3, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: There was a definite wallcloud, line has caught up though not sure anything can happen now. As I say that, looks like it could produce lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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