April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[Neoncyclone]

New towers going up further south 

 

[snowlover2]

ILN latest concerning late tonight/tomorrow.

Quote

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
357 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloud cover will increase this evening with widespread showers
expected Tuesday morning. A few storms are expected Tuesday
afternoon and evening before drier conditions filter back in
Tuesday night through early Thursday. Rain and storm chances
will return again late Thursday into the end of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A persistent stratocu deck has remained locked in for most of
the daytime period thus far for far northern portions of Mercer,
Auglaize, and Hardin Counties in OH. Elsewhere, abundant
sunshine has been the story thus far today, with temps generally
in the upper 60s to mid 70s. These clear sky conditions will not
persist for much longer as thickening cirrus will overspread the
OH Vly from the SW through the evening and early nighttime
hours.

Temps will drop off fairly quickly after sunset this evening
before plateauing toward midnight and beyond with the arrival of
thicker cloud cover. Overnight lows will generally be in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

By later in the overnight period, the system which is currently
residing in the south-central plains will migrate into the
western OH Vly. With this will be an increase in LL wind fields
as a ~50kt H8 LLJ noses NE into the local area toward daybreak.
This increase in deeper-layer wind fields will promote large-
scale moisture advection and mass convergence/lift, which will
enhance the development and expansion of a broad shield of
SHRA, with perhaps some embedded TSRA, into the far western ILN
FA during the predawn hours. This will overspread the local area
progressively from 09z-15z before the back edge quickly pulls
further ENE beyond 15z.

This initial WAA-induced wing of convection will be elevated in
nature, with the severe threat holding off until the afternoon.
Rainfall will generally be around a quarter to third of an inch
with this initial band, but a few spots will pick up close to
half of an inch of rain, or more, with this initial round of
pcpn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Once the WWA-induced wing of pcpn pivots NE by late morning,
the focus will quickly turn to LL destabilization efforts,
which will be well underway following the departure of the
shield of pcpn and more widespread cloud cover toward late
morning.

By 16z, expect for a few breaks in the cloud cover to begin to
develop amidst an increasingly mixed BL. This will occur
coincident with strong LL moisture advection NNE into the Tri-
State area around noon, with sfc DPs creeping into the mid 60s
toward 18z for the S/SE two-thirds of the ILN FA, with slightly
drier air further N toward the weak sfc low center.

Expect the weak sfc low center to track from central IL to NW IN
by 18z. The warm front will arc through N IN into NE OH and
further to the SE across western parts of PA. The weak low will
drift E during the heart of the afternoon period, with
aggressive destabilization efforts through the first part of the
afternoon, especially if clouds can clear out quicker in the
16z-19z time frame.

By as early as 16z-17z, expect that CI may already be underway
along the leading edge of a weak sfc trof/convergent axis
positioned from near the Miami Valley SSW into the Tri-State
area and SE IN. This will serve as the primary source for LL
lift, aside from the front itself hanging well back to the W.
With the LL/sfc flow gradually veering from more S to SW
progressively from one side of the sfc trof to another, this
subtle convergent axis will likely provide the earliest focus
for CI, expected in the VC of a corridor near the Miami Valley
to SE IN around 17z.

Without much in the way of early large-scale lift/forcing, there
is concern that any convective development early in the
afternoon could be discrete in nature, with large hail and
damaging winds quickly becoming the primary threats with this
activity as both LL and ML lapse rates steepen simultaneously.
This will occur due to the infiltration of drier air in the
midlevels and more moist air in the LL, offering a favorable
setup for rapid deeper-layer destabilization, with SBCAPE
approaching 2000 J/kg in a few spots by 18z. This will occur
coincident with sufficient deeper-layer shear on the order of
~40kts with the H8 LLJ still 35-40kts toward mid afternoon (even
as the as best LLJ peels east by late morning). Along the
leading edge of the sfc trof, sfc winds may become slightly more
backed in nature, suggesting that a tornado threat may
materialize with subtle vertical directional shear and effective
inflow SRH on the order of 200 m2/s2. This would likely maximize
with storms whose inflow layer remains unencumbered by nearby
convection (i.e. more discrete in nature) or if cell mergers are
able to occur. There remain a few questions regarding coverage
of activity, especially without a broader-scale/stronger
lifting mechanism.

What early afternoon convection that is able to form may not
take too long to quickly become strong to severe, especially if
sufficient destabilization can occur in the wake of AM
convection and as the storm clusters drift quickly to the ENE
into parts of south-central and central OH and NE KY by 21z or
so. The initially-discrete cells may grow upscale into clusters
a bit more with eastward progression. This will place parts of
central OH/south-central OH/NE KY more in-line for some strong
to severe activity in the 20z-22z time frame before it pushes
off to the E. Other ISO activity will linger back a bit further
to the W closer to the weak sfc low in WC OH toward 00z and
along the actual front itself, which won`t move into the ILN FA
until about 00z before clearing the local area by 03z. There is
still a severe threat with this activity, but anticipate the
greatest severe threat window to be positioned somewhere in the
time frame from 2 PM to 6 PM with the sfc-trof induced activity
before coming to an end altogether toward 10 PM as the front
moves close to the eastern border of the ILN FA.

 

 

[Neoncyclone]

Also new cells popping east of that boundary, might keep things messy for a while, or things are going to go upscale really quickly here.

 

 

[Neoncyclone]

Pretty worried about the southern supercell and discrete convection firing further south in OK, a couple tiny cells to the south supercell should have no problem ingesting them.

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Iceresistance]

14 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

New towers going up further south 

 

SW and Central Oklahoma appears to be the most favorable area for Supercell action

[TLChip]

Looks like it’s trying to get a meso going. 

[snowlover2]

HRRR really seemed to nail that S KS cell.

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Looks like it’s trying to get a meso going. 

Val Castor has a wall cloud that is trying to get lower.

[Neoncyclone]

First tornado warning of the day, can't blame them if this thing fully matures and stays semi-discrete, it's going to become a big deal really quickly 

[TLChip]

And tor warned, funnel cloud spotted

 

[Iceresistance]

Skynews9 has this: 

[TLChip]

That tower south of the current warned area looks like it’s going to spin up too, hook popped up real quick as it developed 

[Iceresistance]

Okay, this means business. Could have a tornado on the ground at any moment now at this rate.

[Neoncyclone]

Oh me oh my, new radar scan has a well-defined mesocyclone, would absolutely be rainwrapped if this produces.

Edited May 2, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Iceresistance]

Something is not right, I'm thinking that there are multiple areas of spin in that one Supercell near Fairview.

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Iceresistance

[ClicheVortex2014]

Watching any one of these more discrete cells in Oklahoma. Discrete and the environment is very favorable for tornadoes. We'll see if they can get sustained.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Watching any one of these more discrete cells in Oklahoma. Discrete and the environment is very favorable for tornadoes. We'll see if they can get sustained.

Sounds like SPC likes the tornadic supercell for now

   Mesoscale Discussion 0624
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of southern KS and northwestern into
   north-central OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 171...

   Valid 022032Z - 022200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 171 continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest threat for tornadoes and very large hail
   should focus across parts of southern Kansas and northwestern
   Oklahoma through 5 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed over part of southwestern KS
   in close proximity to the surface low, with large hail up to 1.75
   inches in diameter reported so far. Other convection has initiated
   along the dryline in northwestern OK and is gradually intensifying
   into supercells. Recent VWPs from KVNX show a strengthening wind
   profile with height through mid levels, with around 200 m2/s2 of 0-1
   km SRH and 50+ kt of deep-layer shear. Even stronger low-level SRH
   may be present farther east into north-central OK along/near the
   effective warm front. Any supercells that can remain at least
   semi-discrete will continue to pose a threat for very large hail (2
   to 3 inch diameter) and tornadoes as they move eastward over the
   next hour or two given this favorable low-level and deep-layer
   shear, and the presence of 1000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Greater
   boundary-layer instability is present over northwestern into
   north-central OK in a fairly narrow corridor, where robust heating
   is occurring and surface dewpoints have recently surged into the
   upper 60s. This area will probably have the best chance for a strong
   tornado in the short term.

 

[ElectricStorm]

The right mover from the splitting cell near Watonga may have some pretty good potential. Not any storms merging into it like the one to it's north

[TLChip]

Those 2 cells near hitchcock hiding so well between radars 

Edited May 2, 2022 by TLChip

[ClicheVortex2014]

3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Something is not right, I'm thinking that there are multiple areas of spin in that one Supercell near Fairview.

 

Link please and thanks in advance

[TLChip]

Just now, OKwx_2001 said:

The right mover from the splitting cell near Watonga may have some pretty good potential. Not any storms merging into it like the one to it's north

Yeah I think that cell should take off

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Link please and thanks in advance

https://www.news9.com/videolivestream?liveStream=https://live.field59.com/kwtv/kwtv4/playlist.m3u8

 

Skynews9 Livestream

 

It's showing that the Supercell is recycling.

Edited May 2, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

https://www.news9.com/videolivestream?liveStream=https://live.field59.com/kwtv/kwtv4/playlist.m3u8

 

Skynews9 Livestream

 

It's showing that the Supercell is recycling.

Also for Val Castor

https://www.news9.com/videolivestream?liveStream=https://live.field59.com/kwtv/kwtv2/playlist.m3u8

[snowlover2]

S KS cell tornado warned.

[Neoncyclone]

If one of these cells matures it will 100% be my target for a strong/violent, It would have the most time through the warm sector and most discrete storms.