Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 2, 2022 Wedge incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) Storms near DDC are taking off. Could be linear near DDC but maybe more discrete at least briefly east of Ashland The southern cell of that possible line could become supercellular Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Watch coming within the next 90 mins Mesoscale Discussion 0622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022 Areas affected...Portions of OK Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 021830Z - 022030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will rapidly increase this afternoon. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, significant damaging winds, and very large hail all appear likely. Tornado Watch issuance will be needed by 20Z (3 PM CDT). DISCUSSION...A surface low is present over southwestern KS at 1830Z, with a dryline extending southward from the low across the far eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. An effective warm front/outflow boundary from earlier convection extends southeastward from the surface low into northwestern and central OK. Surface temperatures have generally warmed into the 70s and low 80s along/south of this boundary, with dewpoints increasing into the low to mid 60s. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to initiate along the dryline across northwestern OK by 20Z (3 PM CDT), as forcing for ascent associated with a shortwave trough over the central High Plains overspreads the warm sector. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overlying the moist low-level airmass and continued diurnal heating will likely support moderate to strong instability by late afternoon, with MLCAPE ranging from around 2000-3000+ J/kg. Veering/strengthening wind profiles with height through mid levels will easily support supercells with initial development off the dryline. Effective SRH of 200-250+ m2/s2 this afternoon will foster low-level rotation with any thunderstorms that develop, with a corresponding threat for tornadoes. Some of the tornadoes could be strong given the rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, especially along the effective warm front/outflow boundary from earlier convection. Very large hail will also be possible with any supercells that can persist and remain at least semi-discrete. The most probable area for initiation will be close to the surface triple point in northwestern OK, where the cu field is already becoming agitated. Most high-resolution guidance continues to suggest one or more intense supercells will form across this region and spread eastward into north-central OK this afternoon and early evening. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will likely be associated with this activity. The potential for additional convective development farther south along the dryline across west-central OK remains unclear, as the better forcing associated with the compact shortwave trough and mid-level jet should remain focused along/near the OK/KS border area. Still, if a thunderstorm or two can form farther south, they would likely become severe quickly while also posing a threat for tornadoes and very large hail. The supercells across north-central OK should grow upscale into a bowing squall line this evening, with a continued threat for embedded tornadoes and significant severe/damaging winds as convection spreads east-southeastward into central/eastern OK. Tornado Watch issuance will be needed by 20Z (3 PM CDT), as convective initiation across northwestern OK appears likely by this time. Looks like the threat for a severe weather outbreak becoming much more likely in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) WHOA 90/70! Edited May 2, 2022 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) I was not expecting these probabilities. Yikes. Though to be fair it is over a huge area. Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) OUN needs some work but there is decent low-level moisture. Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) Is it just me or is NWS getting creative with hail sizes now? Apple sized hail expected. Still doesn't beat the DVD one though. Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Is it just me or is NWS getting creative with hail sizes now? Or is it just that they're reaching for descriptors larger than the common ones? Apple sized hail expected. Still doesn't beat the DVD one though. I've seen apple quite a bit. But DVD was a new one lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 2, 2022 18z HRRR... gonna be a long day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 OKC radar is down apparently... not ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: I've seen apple quite a bit. But DVD was a new one lol I see in the watch wording they're saying hail up to 3". Dunno why but I was thinking an apple was larger than that. They used to call 3" hail hen egg sized hail. I didn't like that because at the very least it's not a common household item. And I'm not sure how many adults know how big a hen egg is. Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I was not expecting these probabilities. Yikes. Though to be fair it is over a huge area. I’m kinda surprised it’s not a PDS. Has to be as close as you can get without being one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: I’m kinda surprised it’s not a PDS. Has to be as close as you can get without being one. PDS watches are super conditional, pretty sure I've seen lower probability PDS watches before, really depends heavily on a mix of confidence in an event and population/affected area. Big regional outbreaks could probably have 70/50 probabilities with a PDS I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 I'm thinking this ends up going linear pretty quickly, but any embedded supercells are going to be an issue, as well as anything discrete of course. Cell north of Alma might need to be watched for some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 2, 2022 There's a gust front associated with this supercell. We'll see if it can get more of a balance between outflow and inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Probably some pretty big hail with this supercell just west of Greensburg, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: There's a gust front associated with this supercell. We'll see if it can get more of a balance between outflow and inflow. Weird, definitely see the outflow, but there is almost certainly a decent meso forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 2, 2022 Tornado warning soon maybe 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said: Tornado warning soon maybe Crazy good structure on radar at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Tornado warning soon maybe There are cases where an outflow boundary assists in tornadogenesis, pretty rare, but something to consider nonetheless 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 Dewpoints at OUN on the 18z sounding were in the low 60s and now we're already to near 70... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boomer295 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 No tornado warning yet and new t-storm warning only warned for half-dollar sized hail. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 2, 2022 Just now, Neoncyclone said: There are cases where an outflow boundary assists in tornadogenesis, pretty rare, but something to consider nonetheless That could be, or it was the supercell just evolving. Great structure indeed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 1 minute ago, OKwx_2001 said: Dewpoints at OUN on the 18z sounding were in the low 60s and now we're already to near 70... WAA putting in work just like @Ingyball said, glad the NWS picked him up, he's good at what he does for sure. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 2, 2022 Currently ingesting another cell. If it can survive that and no other cells develop and continue the cycle, should be discrete for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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