April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[FortySixAnd32]

4 hours ago, Ingyball said:

WAA is almost certainly being underestimated here. I think where the warm front will be is pretty obvious on these model temperature advection charts, which is much further north than expected. I don't think the front makes it to Nebraska though as it should get impeded by storms in northern Kansas.  (sorry for the image spam)

 

In Spring or Winter. Never bet against WAA!!!

[Iceresistance]

I'm currently in Orlando, FL

The GEFS has a strong signal for May 7th and May 8th.

[ElectricStorm]

After looking at the models today, I think the chances for a 15 hatched moderate risk are going down. Most of the models seem to be showing a much more linear mode mode now, and there's a chance that cold front may undercut everything but we'll see. I could see an increase in wind probs though. 

[Cincysnow]

New day 1 

Spoiler

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Intense severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of northern Oklahoma and far southern Kansas, mainly between about 3 to 11 PM CDT. Tornadoes are likely, a few of which could be strong, along with widespread damaging winds and very large hail. ...Synopsis.. A shortwave trough over CO with a compact but strong mid-level jetlet to its south will shift east across the KS/OK area through this evening. Attendant surface cyclone over southeast CO should deepen slightly as it progresses into northwest and north-central OK. The dryline will arc south-southwest from this cyclone across western OK into the Edwards Plateau. Uncertainty exists on exactly how far north the surface warm front will advance with substantial differences between the 06Z NAM and 09Z RAP, but it should approach the KS/OK border east into southern MO. A sharp cold front will plunge south on the backside of the cyclone as pronounced surface ridging builds down the High Plains. ...KS/OK to the Ozarks... Initial supercell development is expected towards early afternoon across west-central to southwest KS immediately ahead of the mid-level wave where a bent-back plume of low-level moisture persists. Severe hail should be the main threat, especially as convection gets undercut from west to east through the rest of the afternoon, but a tornado threat will also exist as convection impinges on higher-quality moisture toward south-central KS. More intense supercells will likely develop immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the south-central KS/north-central OK border area by 21Z. This activity should largely ride along the surface warm front zone within a vorticity-rich environment, but additional cells may develop along the dryline towards central OK through early evening where large buoyancy of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will be prevalent. Several hourly HRRR runs along with 00Z HRW-ARW and NSSL-ARW suggest classic intense supercell to bow echo evolution will occur from north-central to northeast OK. This lends confidence in amplifying severe threat probabilities. Significant tornadoes and very large hail will be most likely in the early supercell stage, with the latter transitioning to a significant damaging wind threat in a bowing QLCS towards the Ozark Plateau. This emerging MCS should eventually weaken towards late evening into the overnight through a combination of increasing MLCIN to its south along the Red River and weaker instability east of the Ozarks.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Looks like HRRR has been trending further south with initial convection

[ClicheVortex2014]

HRRR pushes a squall into OKC. The squall overall doesn't look particularly organized until after 0z, but I doubt that given the instability/wind profiles. Probably will be embedded supercells in it from when it forms until ~03z. Especially across northern OK.

Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

49 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

After looking at the models today, I think the chances for a 15 hatched moderate risk are going down. Most of the models seem to be showing a much more linear mode mode now, and there's a chance that cold front may undercut everything but we'll see. I could see an increase in wind probs though. 

Welp never mind lol. At least I was right on the wind part 

[ElectricStorm]

Getting some good rain from this line of storms moving through. Producing some decent wind too. Feeling pretty confident about a squall with potentially embedded supercells moving through here later 

Edited May 2, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

12z NAM for tomorrow has the looks of an event that's going to be heavily influenced by breaks in the clouds. Mid-level lapse rates are pretty average so instability is driven by moisture and daytime heating. Directional shear is pretty weak, too. Pretty questionable for supercell potential.

Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

A big difference between the past few events we've had in the past few weeks and the day 3 one is there'll be seasonably strong deep-layer shear with this one. Should allow for healthier supercells and possibly longer-tracked tornadoes

Texas Panhandle

North-central TX

Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Might have to eat my words. Lol. Tomorrow looks uneventful 😬😆

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[Cincysnow]

Nothing to say, other than I am old

 

[Sentinel]

6 hours ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

In Spring or Winter. Never bet against WAA!!!

Never. WAA is quite potent. 

[Ingyball]

Do think CAMS underestimated convection in Oklahoma this morning which would explain the trend south on the HRRR. However, it is only 17z and convection cleared out pretty quickly so now we'll see how far north the warm front can get. Got some good clearing in southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma so that's where you'd expect the warm front to move the fastest. Already seeing 70s in Woodward. 

[TLChip]

6 hours ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

In Spring or Winter. Never bet against WAA!!!

So true, always melting those forecasted snow totals 🤣

[Sentinel]

2 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Do think CAMS underestimated convection in Oklahoma this morning which would explain the trend south on the HRRR. However, it is only 17z and convection cleared out pretty quickly so now we'll see how far north the warm front can get. Got some good clearing in southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma so that's where you'd expect the warm front to move the fastest. Already seeing 70s in Woodward. 

Was that you that issued the DVD sized hail alert?

[Ingyball]

8 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Was that you that issued the DVD sized hail alert?

No I'm more of a gamer so I would have gone with Gameboy Advanced size hail, which is a little bit bigger but not too far off

. 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Ingyball

[Neoncyclone]

10 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

No I'm more of a gamer so I would have gone with Gameboy Advanced size hail, which is a little bit bigger but not too far off

. 

The day we get a tornado watch with possible Gameboy Advanced sized hail will be a glorious day.

 

 

[Roger89]

1 hour ago, Cincysnow said:

Nothing to say, other than I am old

 

Back when the Weather Channel had the weather.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Cumulus are starting to go up along the dryline just outside of the Oklahoma panhandle. They're only about 30 mins old. Storms are expected to fire early for the Plains.

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Sentinel]

36 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

No I'm more of a gamer so I would have gone with Gameboy Advanced size hail, which is a little bit bigger but not too far off

. 

Can you please please please please please please please please issue that? 

 

[ElectricStorm]

Too bad I have a class at 4:30... Might miss quite a bit of action

[ClicheVortex2014]

 Mesoscale Discussion 0620
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of southern/central KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 021810Z - 022015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado, large hail, and damaging wind threat should
   increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...18Z surface analysis shows a surface low centered over
   far southwestern KS, with an attendant cold front sweeping southward
   over the central Plains. Low-level moisture is returning northward
   ahead of this low and the front, with mid 50s to low 60s surface
   dewpoints prevalent across northern OK into southern KS. Recent
   visible satellite imagery indicates the cu field is becoming
   agitated across southwestern KS just east of the surface low.
   Current expectations are for thunderstorms to initiate across this
   region over the next hour or two as ascent associated with a compact
   shortwave trough and mid-level jet overspread the central Plains.

   A favorable veering/strengthening wind profile for supercells is
   forecast across southern KS, with 45-50+ kt of effective bulk shear
   present. The main uncertainty is how much destabilization will occur
   owing to persistent/widespread cloudiness and the lingering effects
   of earlier convection across OK and related outflow boundaries.
   Still, modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and cool mid-level
   temperatures associated with the shortwave trough should act in
   tandem with modest diurnal heating to support around 500-1500 J/kg
   of MLCAPE. Greater instability will likely remain confined near the
   OK/KS border.

   Any supercells that can develop and persist over the next few hours
   will pose a threat for isolated tornadoes given the favorable
   low-level shear noted in recent VWPs from KICT. Large hail and
   damaging winds may also occur. As convection spreads eastward this
   afternoon and early evening, some high-resolution guidance suggests
   upscale growth into a small bowing cluster may occur. Damaging winds
   would become the main threat across south-central KS if this
   evolution occurs, but embedded QLCS circulations would also be
   possible. Tornado Watch issuance appears likely as convective
   initiation becomes increasingly probable by 19-20Z (2-3 PM CDT).

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Watch coming within the next 90 mins

  Mesoscale Discussion 0622
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 021830Z - 022030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will rapidly increase this afternoon.
   Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, significant damaging
   winds, and very large hail all appear likely. Tornado Watch issuance
   will be needed by 20Z (3 PM CDT).

   DISCUSSION...A surface low is present over southwestern KS at 1830Z,
   with a dryline extending southward from the low across the far
   eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. An effective warm
   front/outflow boundary from earlier convection extends southeastward
   from the surface low into northwestern and central OK. Surface
   temperatures have generally warmed into the 70s and low 80s
   along/south of this boundary, with dewpoints increasing into the low
   to mid 60s. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to initiate
   along the dryline across northwestern OK by 20Z (3 PM CDT), as
   forcing for ascent associated with a shortwave trough over the
   central High Plains overspreads the warm sector.

   Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overlying the moist
   low-level airmass and continued diurnal heating will likely support
   moderate to strong instability by late afternoon, with MLCAPE
   ranging from around 2000-3000+ J/kg. Veering/strengthening wind
   profiles with height through mid levels will easily support
   supercells with initial development off the dryline. Effective SRH
   of 200-250+ m2/s2 this afternoon will foster low-level rotation with
   any thunderstorms that develop, with a corresponding threat for
   tornadoes. Some of the tornadoes could be strong given the rather
   favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, especially along
   the effective warm front/outflow boundary from earlier convection.
   Very large hail will also be possible with any supercells that can
   persist and remain at least semi-discrete.

   The most probable area for initiation will be close to the surface
   triple point in northwestern OK, where the cu field is already
   becoming agitated. Most high-resolution guidance continues to
   suggest one or more intense supercells will form across this region
   and spread eastward into north-central OK this afternoon and early
   evening. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will likely be
   associated with this activity. The potential for additional
   convective development farther south along the dryline across
   west-central OK remains unclear, as the better forcing associated
   with the compact shortwave trough and mid-level jet should remain
   focused along/near the OK/KS border area. Still, if a thunderstorm
   or two can form farther south, they would likely become severe
   quickly while also posing a threat for tornadoes and very large
   hail.

   The supercells across north-central OK should grow upscale into a
   bowing squall line this evening, with a continued threat for
   embedded tornadoes and significant severe/damaging winds as
   convection spreads east-southeastward into central/eastern OK.
   Tornado Watch issuance will be needed by 20Z (3 PM CDT), as
   convective initiation across northwestern OK appears likely by this
   time.