April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[FortySixAnd32]

This could produce!!!

[ClicheVortex2014]

Seems like a good day for a moderate risk for all categories in the vicinity of the OK/KS border

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

Confirmed tornado near Hermleigh TX.

Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
806 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022

The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Fisher County in west central Texas...

* Until 845 PM CDT.

* At 804 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Hermleigh,
  moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southwestern Fisher County.

 

 

[Cincysnow]

Cell near Hereford, TX

[ElectricStorm]

6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Seems like a good day for a moderate risk for all categories in the vicinity of the OK/KS border

 

Yeah I'm thinking that morning convection might kill the overall environment down here in C OK. Looks to stay further north again. I'm thinking we don't really see much here again but we'll have to see how much morning convection actually materializes and what the morning models look like. Looking very dangerous for N OK/S KS though and I agree we'll probably see a moderate up there. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

15 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Yeah I'm thinking that morning convection might kill the overall environment down here in C OK. Looks to stay further north again. I'm thinking we don't really see much here again but we'll have to see how much morning convection actually materializes and what the morning models look like. Looking very dangerous for N OK/S KS though and I agree we'll probably see a moderate up there. 

I think you'll recover easily but there's something holding convection back on the models. No capping and a dryline is present, but there might be something like too much mid-level dry air, convergence aloft/sinking air, or the dryline just isn't enough to force ascent.

Here's the OUN sounding for tomorrow evening. Too much mixing and there's a significant dry layer aloft around 500mb.

Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

0z HRRR for Tuesday.

[Neoncyclone]

Absolutely massive hail core on Daniel Shaw's stream, big hail on the very leading edge of the cell, probably absolutely monster hail in the core.

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

0z HRRR for Tuesday.

Several discrete supercells across Ohio. Interesting.

[ElectricStorm]

17 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I think you'll recover easily but there's something holding convection back on the models. No capping and a dryline is present, but there might be something like too much mid-level dry air, convergence aloft/sinking air, or the dryline just isn't enough to force ascent.

Here's the OUN sounding for tomorrow evening. Too much mixing and there's a significant dry layer aloft around 500mb.

Yeah we'll have to see what the observed soundings show tomorrow. Could go either way but I'm leaning towards the lower end for C OK. I'm pretty bullish for areas further north though and will be very surprised if we don't see a 15 hatched moderate risk

[ClicheVortex2014]

While we see this outbreak continue into the middle of this week... SPC forecaster:

We might see some day 6+ slight risks soon

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

00Z 3km NAM, if this verified there would be considerable threat for N and C OK, about 2-3 hour window before storms go fully linear

 

[Chinook]

33 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Yeah we'll have to see what the observed soundings show tomorrow. Could go either way but I'm leaning towards the lower end for C OK. I'm pretty bullish for areas further north though and will be very surprised if we don't see a 15 hatched moderate risk

for what it's worth, the 18z HRRR had some large supercell tracks near the OK/KS border. The 00z ones are coming in right now.

 

storm near Dumas

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Chinook

[ElectricStorm]

This model has been pretty solid lately

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Haven't seen a mean STP/UH track overlap like this in a while. Gotta be since March. Maybe there was one in April that I'm not remembering. I'll be surprised if there's no moderate risk for the first outlook

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Decent line about to move in here 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Quite the hail day as expected. No tornado reports because of how rural the area is, but I'd imagine we'll see a few pop up as offices vet some pics.

[ElectricStorm]

Day 2 outlook remains a slight risk for wind. 2% tornado area

[ElectricStorm]

Day 1 is still enhanced for now

[ClicheVortex2014]

2 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Day 1 is still enhanced for now

Seems growing into a mcs quick is the concern

..SOUTHERN PLAINS  
  
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY  
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE MORNING. SOUTHERLY  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MID/UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS  
INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE BY LATE  
AFTERNOON. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE TRIPLE  
POINT, WITH LESS CERTAINTY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE. GIVEN THE  
40-55 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, DISCRETE STORM MODES WOULD BE FAVORED.  
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES, PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG,  
WOULD BE HAZARDS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO WOULD  
EXIST WITH STORMS THAT INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT.  
  
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH WITH TIME. THIS  
IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH AND  
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK ANVIL-LEVEL WINDS IN  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SUPERCELLS NEAR THE WARM FRONT COULD ALSO GROW  
UPSCALE MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED. ALL SAID, THE THREAT FOR  
DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TOWARDS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF  
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  
   

 

[StormfanaticInd]

32 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Day 2 outlook remains a slight risk for wind. 2% tornado area

I disagree with this but we will see

[Ingyball]

Not sure I agree with the shift south in the day 1 outlook. I think the models are too far south with the warm front and we'll see it push further north than expected. Models don't have convection during the midday until you get to northern Kansas so that's where I'd expect to see warm front progress slow. Along with that we have a fairly strong LLJ throughout the day on a good range of models that will be bringing warm air advections. I think this may be another case where models are underestimating WAA like they typically do. If that's the case that would put parts of central Kansas in play for significant weather. 

 

[Ingyball]

WAA is almost certainly being underestimated here. I think where the warm front will be is pretty obvious on these model temperature advection charts, which is much further north than expected. I don't think the front makes it to Nebraska though as it should get impeded by storms in northern Kansas.  (sorry for the image spam)

 

[Ingyball]

I should note, the one thing that could keep the warm front from pushing further north is if models are currently wrong about their being little convection in central Kansas during the day. In that case if convection ends up further south then that will keep the warm front confined to southern Kansas with northern Oklahoma under the highest threat. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

17 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I disagree with this but we will see

It'll change either way. A lot of uncertainty about what'll evolve tomorrow and then what'll evolve out of that. A slight risk is pretty generous given the uncertainty. Probably gonna end up with a mostly cloudy warm sector.

Edited May 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014