Iceresistance Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 @ClicheVortex2014 12z GFS also has a crazy Dryline too, except that the Cap is weaker combined with higher insability over Oklahoma. I found this sounding over OKC for Friday. (I've just noticed the Hodograph, oh my goodness) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 25, 2022 Author Share Posted April 25, 2022 12z GFS is a dryline machine my goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: 12z GFS is a dryline machine my goodness There's another potential setup in Early May as well with the CAPE is very close to 5000, and it's only trending higher. o_o EDIT: There is CAPE above 5000 in SW Oklahoma on May 3rd at 21z (I really hope that the GFS is not trying for a 5/3/1999 again, I've heard that the SPC Soundings showed CAPE over 5000 in Norman on that fateful day) Edited April 25, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 25, 2022 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: There's another potential setup in Early May as well with the CAPE is very close to 5000, and it's only trending higher. o_o EDIT: There is CAPE above 5000 in SW Oklahoma on May 3rd at 21z (I really hope that the GFS is not trying for a 5/3/1999 again, I've heard that the SPC Soundings showed CAPE over 5000 in Norman on that fateful day) It's possible. It appears the 0z balloon popped in the upper troposphere before it hit the EL so this sounding is an underestimate. I doubt that 0z sounding would've yielded 5000 sbcape though, given how close it was to the EL. But it did have a -10 LI which is significant. Same thing happened with 5/31/13 except 5000+ sbcape was actually observed at 18z Edited April 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 25, 2022 Author Share Posted April 25, 2022 51 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: There's another potential setup in Early May as well with the CAPE is very close to 5000, and it's only trending higher. o_o EDIT: There is CAPE above 5000 in SW Oklahoma on May 3rd at 21z (I really hope that the GFS is not trying for a 5/3/1999 again, I've heard that the SPC Soundings showed CAPE over 5000 in Norman on that fateful day) Yeah I don't trust anything that far out. It's cool to look at on the models but that's about it at that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 25, 2022 Author Share Posted April 25, 2022 12z CIPS analogs more significant than the 0z but not as crazy as yesterday's 12z, although that was about as crazy as it gets. Some pretty big days on here https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=GP&fhr=F108&rundt=2022042512&map=thbSVR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 (edited) 16 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: 12z CIPS analogs more significant than the 0z but not as crazy as yesterday's 12z, although that was about as crazy as it gets. Some pretty big days on here https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=GP&fhr=F108&rundt=2022042512&map=thbSVR It's more in Kansas, which is the best case for town if I'm going to be in Mississippi on Friday. Edited April 25, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 22 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Yeah I don't trust anything that far out. It's cool to look at on the models but that's about it at that range The GEFS is slowly trending higher with the Supercell Composite across the Southern Plains as well, so there's a maybe with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 25, 2022 Author Share Posted April 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: It's more in Kansas, which is the best case for town if I'm going to be in Mississippi on Friday. There's a lot in KS, but there's some pretty big days for OK on that list too 14 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The GEFS is slowly trending higher with the Supercell Composite across the Southern Plains as well, so there's a maybe with this setup. Yeah it could be something it's just too far out to really know for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said: Yeah it could be something it's just too far out to really know for sure I'm actually impressed that the GEFS has been able to sniff out something potentially big 2 weeks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 25, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I'm actually impressed that the GEFS has been able to sniff out something potentially big 2 weeks in advance. 2 weeks is impressive but to be fair, all we need to get severe weather at this time of year is a western trough. Saying there will be severe weather in a time period would be easy, but nailing where and how significant is still the hardest part. It's kinda like being in December or January and seeing the PV over the Eastern US... there's gonna be lake effect snow somewhere. 'tis the season. Edited April 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 (edited) Sheesh, 18z GFS continues the trend of a big dryline event, here is hour 99, no cap in SE KS at 21z 8.1C/km low level lapse rates. Incredible directional shear, decent speed shear. Edited April 25, 2022 by Neoncyclone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 25, 2022 IIRC, GFS really wanted to keep the central Plains capped on Friday but we know that didn't happen. NAM had less capping and better low-level moisture when it came into range. It was onto something with the capping thing but notsomuch moisture. So if history repeats itself here, could be trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 21 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: IIRC, GFS really wanted to keep the central Plains capped on Friday but we know that didn't happen. NAM had less capping and better low-level moisture when it came into range. It was onto something with the capping thing but notsomuch moisture. So if history repeats itself here, could be trouble. It has a higher chance of repeating itself because there's less dry air from the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 Euro does try to initiate on the 29th, but the Cap wins out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 26, 2022 Hoping the dryline sets up further west so I can go out and spot/chase. Definitely won't be heading to southeast Kansas if that's where storms go. Would have to settle for pics of behind the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 26, 2022 oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 26, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 The 00z models (GFS, Canadian, UKMET) do have a good amount of agreement on a deeper low pressure in Kansas at 96 hours with 60 dew points, dryline, and somewhere around 40 kt - 50 kt winds at 500mb moving into the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 26, 2022 (edited) SPC will probably want to see more consistency between models but Euro's joined GFS with respect to possibly significant severe weather. How they get it done is the difference. But if we did a Venn Diagram of the two models and their threat areas, they'd overlap in SE KS and maybe a part of NE OK. Northward toward the warm front/low/triple point gets an honorable mention because of the strength of the system but there are some signs that capping may be an issue. Area average sounding for most of eastern Oklahoma Model comparison loop shows that they definitely differ GFS Is uncapped at 21z for SE KS/NE OK area but capped at 0z. Euro can't go to 21z at this range but in some locations it just has a weak cap. At 0z, Euro's got weaker instability and weaker shear but less cinh Edited April 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 Next week is starting to get my attention. Gfs is depicting several compact shortwave ejecting out of the plains with plenty of instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 26, 2022 Author Share Posted April 26, 2022 6z GFS less capped at 0z but it's still there though it looks pretty breakable. I'm not sold on a big outbreak yet though. Too much model differences, and if the Euro solution verifies this will be a much tamer event. Not to mention the cap could be a problem as well. Moisture is ok but not great, would like to see dewpoints a bit higher for a bigger event. I like the current slight risk from SPC. For now, I think this could end up as a mostly isolated event, anything that does form could be pretty explosive. Obviously still 4 days out and a lot can change so I'm not saying the higher end solutions are impossible but I'm not really seeing it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 (edited) Getting into the extreme long-ranges of the NAM, actually a very similar environment to what the GFS depicts, but there's one huge problem, there's a lot less speed shear. We've seen high cape low shear events produce before, super notably Jarrell, TX. (Jarrell had 3000 more cape than this sounding and 4000 is already considered extreme) Jarrell was one of those events where you've got to watch for boundaries and gravity waves from morning MCS's and even then conditions have to be enhanced from those boundaries in such specific ways that something like Jarrell likely won't happen again for a very long time. Either way you've got a powder keg with great directional shear, it's a day to watch IMO. This setup like most drylines will likely be boom or bust. Edited April 26, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 26, 2022 Author Share Posted April 26, 2022 Cap bust on 12z GFS That being said, GFS seems to have a strong cap bias, and the parameters are still looking solid on this run. Can't wait for the CAM's to start getting in range over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 49 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Cap bust on 12z GFS That being said, GFS seems to have a strong cap bias, and the parameters are still looking solid on this run. Can't wait for the CAM's to start getting in range over the next couple days. The GEFS & SREF also has high parameters, but the SREF has a complete cap bust compared to maybe some on the GEFS. KFOR also said that it's unlikely that any storm could develop because the Euro model has a very strong cap over Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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