Neoncyclone Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 Hope chasers aren't sleeping on todays event, looks like a beautiful chase day so long as you stay out of the hail. I see at least half a dozen discrete cells? Tornado potential doesn't feel impressive, but these types of days can sneak up on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 1, 2022 I like the look of FV3 for Tuesday. But it is the FV3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 In Florida! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 (edited) WEDNESDAY also looks potentially bad for Okc and Kansas Edited May 1, 2022 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 18z HRRR for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 1, 2022 If I were chasing, I know where I'd be heading 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 1, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 18z HRRR for tomorrow. HRRRs been really aggressive for tomorrow. That southern storm spares Wichita though by getting in the way of the storm that would have moved over the city. Think SPC may need to expand the enhanced northward some on Day 1 and if we get a moderate at all I'd probably have that from Wichita to Enid. Edit: CV got the UH tracks before me. Edited May 1, 2022 by Ingyball 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 1, 2022 I always crack up when I see the names for the weather challenge we have at the NWS. I think my favorite I saw was "Fruit Salad, Yummy Yummy" but "Ed Shear-an" is up there too. 🤣 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 1, 2022 Impressive probabilities. Only mentions of softballs, no DVDs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 Could be wrong but i don't think you usually see the mention of intense tornados in a 5% area. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 168 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico Southwest Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop and affect the watch area this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of Wink TX to 15 miles southeast of San Angelo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 167... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 1, 2022 (edited) Pretty classic supercell splitting hodographs right now. Already seeing a split. Might change a bit in a few hours when the LLJ kicks up. Edited May 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 18z 3K NAM for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 1, 2022 I'm always interested to see how these lead days perform. Can give you insight on what to expect the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Ingyball said: I always crack up when I see the names for the weather challenge we have at the NWS. I think my favorite I saw was "Fruit Salad, Yummy Yummy" but "Ed Shear-an" is up there too. 🤣 Awnaw! Hail naw! Boy Y'all done up and done it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 New watch out and tornado warning NW of Midland TX. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 169 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Eastern New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle West Texas including the Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to form over eastern New Mexico. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon and evening, posing a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northeast of Springfield CO to 55 miles south southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 167...WW 168... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 Yikes!!! 80mph winds and 2.5" hail! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 427 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 NMC025-TXC165-012215- /O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-220501T2215Z/ Lea NM-Gaines TX- 427 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT/415 PM MDT/ FOR NORTHEASTERN LEA AND NORTHWESTERN GAINES COUNTIES... At 426 PM CDT/326 PM MDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of Lovington, moving northeast at 30 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR LOVINGTON. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reporting two inch hail. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. Locations impacted include... Hobbs, Lovington, McDonald, Humble City, Knowles, Industrial Airpark and Higginbotham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT/900 PM MDT/ for southeastern New Mexico...and western Texas. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3319 10306 3296 10306 3296 10288 3281 10305 3275 10323 3304 10347 3328 10324 TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 240DEG 25KT 3297 10321 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 Another cell with 80mph winds and baseball sized hail! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 441 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 NMC025-TXC165-012215- /O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-220501T2215Z/ Lea NM-Gaines TX- 441 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT/415 PM MDT/ FOR EAST CENTRAL LEA AND NORTHWESTERN GAINES COUNTIES... At 440 PM CDT/340 PM MDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles east of Lovington, moving northeast at 25 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR EASTERN CENTRAL LEA COUNTY AND AREAS EAST OF LOVINGTON ALONG HIGHWAY 83. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters report baseball size hail on the ground. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. Locations impacted include... Hobbs, Lovington, Knowles and Higginbotham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT/900 PM MDT/ for southeastern New Mexico...and western Texas. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3319 10306 3296 10306 3296 10288 3282 10304 3277 10317 3307 10344 3313 10332 3318 10316 TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 239DEG 22KT 3300 10316 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 1, 2022 (edited) Per mesoanalysis, the new tornado warned supercell in SW TX is enjoying some locally backed surface winds Edited May 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 If there ends up being a tornado south of Grandfalls, it is in very open country with scattered oil wells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 Wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted May 1, 2022 Moderators Share Posted May 1, 2022 19 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said: I wonder how much that morning convection will affect this setup. Looking at the models I don't think it will hurt it much but we'll see. But yeah definitely looks pretty concerning. Morning Convection seems to be a big issue this year with a lot of these setups being either boom or bust type days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 80mph winds and 3" hail! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 459 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 NMC025-TXC165-012215- /O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-220501T2215Z/ Lea NM-Gaines TX- 459 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT/415 PM MDT/ FOR EAST CENTRAL LEA AND NORTHWESTERN GAINES COUNTIES... At 459 PM CDT/359 PM MDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located 15 miles east of Lovington, moving northeast at 25 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR EASTERN CENTRAL LEA COUNTY AND AREAS EAST OF LOVINGTON ALONG HIGHWAY 83. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and three inch hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters report baseball size hail. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. Locations impacted include... Higginbotham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT/900 PM MDT/ for southeastern New Mexico...and western Texas. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3283 10317 3308 10336 3319 10306 3296 10306 3296 10288 3294 10290 3291 10296 TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 241DEG 21KT 3302 10310 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...3.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 Confirmed tornado. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 509 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 TXC371-012245- /O.CON.KMAF.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220501T2245Z/ Pecos TX- 509 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY... At 509 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 13 miles south of Grandfalls, or 18 miles north of Fort Stockton, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Pecos County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 1, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 (edited) Reed Timmer managed to get this drone footage over Andover, KS EDIT: Apparently, there was only 1 tornado-related injury and it was minor. Many people likely took immediate shelter and the tornado was also highly visible. Edited May 1, 2022 by Iceresistance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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