April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[Sentinel]

Just now, snowlover2 said:

Yep posted a page or 2 back.

Ah.. I missed it. Thank you. 

I bring it up because I was wondering if anyone would like a dedicated thread to it? I know the Wx community is rather small and tight knit and was not sure if people maybe wanted a thread. 

[snowlover2]

0z HRRR for rest of tonight.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Monday's got a lot of potential... obviously (see SPC outlook)

Nearly a classic Plains synoptic setup.

 

0z HRRR has some nasty supercells

 

Edited May 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

57 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Monday's got a lot of potential... obviously (see SPC outlook)

Nearly a classic Plains synoptic setup.

 

0z HRRR has some nasty supercells

 

I wonder how much that morning convection will affect this setup. Looking at the models I don't think it will hurt it much but we'll see. But yeah definitely looks pretty concerning. 

[snowlover2]

0z NAM Tuesday evening.

[snowlover2]

Decent looking line of storms about to move into Indy.

[Neoncyclone]

fun little sounding from GFS at hour 174 in Central Oklahoma

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

12 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

I wonder how much that morning convection will affect this setup. Looking at the models I don't think it will hurt it much but we'll see. But yeah definitely looks pretty concerning. 

It's associated with the warm front so in other words you just need to stay south of the warm front. That won't be an issue.

Now, the event for the OV on Tuesday will certainly have to watch for remnant convection from Monday. That uncertainty is the pain of being involved in the second+ day of a system. Contaminated warm sector.

Edited May 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Got a little training going over my area. Heavy rain mostly 

[StormfanaticInd]

Now getting some pretty gusty winds and loud thunder

[ClicheVortex2014]

oh

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

I'm feeling more confident about Monday turning into a tornado-driven moderate risk at some point.

No reason to think the cap won't break... no question about wind profile... instability is obviously gonna be sufficient.

Only thing I have a question about is storm mode/confidence in where there'll be storms. Some models are showing discrete-turning-linear while a supercell pops elsewhere. 

All the CAMs have confidence in storms popping in Southern Kansas, at least. That's also where HRRR turns things linear after a few hours. But that should be a lock for severe weather. And of course it's by the triple point.

Central Oklahoma seems like a boom-or-bust event. Conflicting signs as to whether or not a cell will pop... but if it does, it'll be discrete and in a very favorable environment. Just like the DVD bust on Friday.

Edited May 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1250 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2022  
  
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS VICINITY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE  
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS/HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION DURING THE DAYTIME.  
   
..SOUTHERN PLAINS  
  
NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY 02/12Z. WHILE NOTABLE  
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE CONFINED TO ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF  
THE HIGH PLAINS VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD, LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION  
WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, IN ADDITION TO  
SURFACE HEATING.  
  
EARLY THIS MORNING, LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE  
CONDUCIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BASIN/SOUTH TX FOR THE TRANSPORT  
OF HIGHER-PW AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO  
HAVE STALLED FROM NEAR SHV-AUSTIN-SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION.  
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOTABLY HIGHER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF TX  
WHERE VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE  
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IS VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD, 850MB FLOW WILL  
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE  
LLJ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BY EARLY EVENING, THEN EXPAND/INTENSIFY  
FROM NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT  
ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS TX, CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION  
WILL OCCUR SUCH THAT SIGNIFICANT BUOYANCY WILL BE NOTED NEAR THE  
FRONT AS IT SURGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO  
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING SIGNIFICANT  
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REMAIN,  
ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/MOISTENING  
REGIME; HOWEVER, THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT A FEW SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THE WARM FRONT. FORECAST  
SOUNDING AT 22Z AS FAR EAST AS SEP IS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE IN  
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH AMPLE SHEAR/SRH FOR SUPERCELLS.  
LATE-EVENING HREF MEMBERS EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CONVECTIVE  
SOLUTIONS, BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE  
HIGH PLAINS REMAINS. WIND PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND  
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTRIBUTE TO  
DESTABILIZATION ADVANCING NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO  
EXTEND ENH RISK INTO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL TX TO ACCOUNT FOR  
POSSIBLE WARM-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT, OR AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF  
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS.  
  
STRONG LLJ INTO OK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WARRANTS INCREASING  
SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO THIS PORTION OF THE PLAINS AS SIGNIFICANT  
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS MOISTURE RETURNS. NAM FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK SUGGEST BUOYANT NEAR-SURFACE BASED  
PARCELS WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS ARE  
POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED.  
   
..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION  
  
LEADING EDGE OF GREAT LAKES TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO OH BY  
LATE AFTERNOON AS 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS SOUTHERN OH  
TOWARD WESTERN PA. MOST SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST NORTH  
OF THIS JET BUT AMPLE DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
SOUTH ACROSS WV/WESTERN VA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW  
SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND WIND/HAIL ARE THE  
PRIMARY THREATS WITH CONVECTION THAT FORMS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE  
FRONT.  
  
..DARROW/WENDT.. 05/01/2022  

 

 

[snowlover2]

New day 2 mentions EF3+ tornado possible.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0101 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2022  
  
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN  
AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE  
AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A  
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF  
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND IN THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.  
   
..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS  
  
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY, AS A 45 TO 60 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET  
TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE,  
A LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS A COLD  
FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN  
OKLAHOMA. BY AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL SETUP FROM A FRONTAL TRIPLE  
POINT IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO  
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE  
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE MOIST SECTOR WILL BE IN THE MID 60S F, WHERE  
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS  
FORECAST TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL  
KANSAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. RAPID  
THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG  
THE DRYLINE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS.  
  
THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MAY BECOME  
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS, DEPENDING UPON EARLY DAY ACTIVITY  
SHIFTING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM  
WICHITA SOUTHWARD TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 00Z/TUESDAY ARE IMPRESSIVE  
LOADED GUN SOUNDINGS. MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 2000 TO 3000  
J/KG RANGE, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 50 TO 60 KNOT. THIS IS COMBINED  
WITH 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM, AND 0-3 KM STORM  
RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 450 TO 500 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE A HIGH-END  
PARAMETER SPACE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL, WIND  
DAMAGE AND TORNADOES. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN  
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS.  
AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR RAMPS UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING, TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE  
SUPERCELLS. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE  
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND  
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT  
FOR STRONG TORNADOES, AND AN EF3+ TORNADO MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION,  
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS, AND WITH ORGANIZED  
SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.  
  
A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST  
TEXAS AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE, BUT  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THERE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND  
DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT FORM IN THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  
   
..OZARKS/WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY  
  
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL  
MISSOURI DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE  
WEST. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
AS IT ADVANCES. THESE STORMS COULD HAVE A HAIL THREAT. AS THE WARM  
FRONT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
DURING THE EVENING, THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ACROSS THE  
OZARKS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE  
THREAT. ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE  
POSSIBLE, BOWING LINE SEGMENTS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH WIND DAMAGE  
POTENTIAL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST AS STRONG TO SEVERE  
CLUSTERS OF STORMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE EVENING  
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
  
..BROYLES.. 05/01/2022 

 

 

Edited May 1, 2022 by snowlover2

[ClicheVortex2014]

Not sure why or how this happens but SPC put out a 5% hatched tornado risk. In other words, more likely to see an EF2+ tornado (10%) than a tornado (5%). I only know of one other event they did this for but I can’t think of it off the top of my head. 

On my phone but SPC mentions the potential for EF3+ tornadoes 

 

Edited May 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

12z HRRR not showing much in terms of supercells in OK. I find that pretty hard to believe given the parameters and lack of strong cap. But every time it's shown nothing here it's been right. So we'll see

[Iceresistance]

55 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

12z HRRR not showing much in terms of supercells in OK. I find that pretty hard to believe given the parameters and lack of strong cap. But every time it's shown nothing here it's been right. So we'll see

It could be weaker forcing that the HRRR has noticed.

[ElectricStorm]

43 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It could be weaker forcing that the HRRR has noticed.

Maybe but pretty much all the other CAMs are showing development. We'll see what happens but I'm going against the HRRR for now unless trends change 

[Ingyball]

9 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Not sure why or how this happens but SPC put out a 5% hatched tornado risk. In other words, more likely to see an EF2+ tornado (10%) than a tornado (5%). I only know of one other event they did this for but I can’t think of it off the top of my head. 

On my phone but SPC mentions the potential for EF3+ tornadoes 

 

It's been corrected 

[Ingyball]

11 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I'm feeling more confident about Monday turning into a tornado-driven moderate risk at some point.

No reason to think the cap won't break... no question about wind profile... instability is obviously gonna be sufficient.

Only thing I have a question about is storm mode/confidence in where there'll be storms. Some models are showing discrete-turning-linear while a supercell pops elsewhere. 

All the CAMs have confidence in storms popping in Southern Kansas, at least. That's also where HRRR turns things linear after a few hours. But that should be a lock for severe weather. And of course it's by the triple point.

Central Oklahoma seems like a boom-or-bust event. Conflicting signs as to whether or not a cell will pop... but if it does, it'll be discrete and in a very favorable environment. Just like the DVD bust on Friday.

I'm definitely getting concerned here for tomorrow with us being in the triple point location and an EF-3+ that only just hit Andover. I have seen some funky hodographs, but I don't count on that as a potential bust mode until the day of and it's not even consistent between models and runs. Probably our best bust mode will be potential convection forming before peak heating. Outside of that it looks like it will be game on. 

 

I stopped looking at the Sigtor parameter on the SREF about a day out, until then it did not handle the event well showing only a 5% but that may have changed after I stopped looking at it. Now it has a 60% contour over south-central Kansas and with storm mode expected to be discrete or semi-discrete that's a bad combo. Additionally CAMs and the NAM are pretty consistent in giving us lower LCLs than we saw Friday with LCLs below 500 meters out ahead of storms. This makes me concerned about potential rain wrapped and large tornadoes. Could make it a dangerous day for people trying to look for the tornado, especially after how clear the Andover one was. I'm concerned there will be people who missed out on that who will try to look for one if given the opportunity tomorrow. 

[snowlover2]

Doesn't appear to be much if any change on the new day 1 update.

[Ingyball]

Day 2 update still an enhanced risk but looks like it got expanded for wind.

[snowlover2]

Updated day 2

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1231 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2022  
  
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND  
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MARGINAL  
SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL  
TEXAS, WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
TOMORROW/MONDAY, ENCOURAGING SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR THE OKLAHOMA  
PANHANDLE. A MOIST, BUOYANT AIRMASS WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK VALLEY THROUGH THE  
DAY. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE ONSET OF BOTH DIURNAL HEATING  
AND NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE  
ARKLATEX/OZARK REGIONS, AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS  
TO CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. IN ADDITION, ENOUGH BUOYANCY  
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A 500 MB SPEED MAX/SURFACE  
LEE-TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL  
SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
   
..SOUTHERN PLAINS  
  
A TRIPLE POINT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE IN  
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING DRYLINE SHARPENS  
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.  
AS EARLIER DAY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS DEPART THE REGION BY  
AFTERNOON, LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX NORTHWARD  
BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FOSTERING WIDESPREAD 2000+ J/KG  
MLCAPE AMID 40-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. IN ADDITION, A STRONG  
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO RAMP UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY  
EVENING HOURS, CONTRIBUTING TO LONG, CURVED HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWEST  
2-3 KM. A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED IN  
PROXIMITY TO THE TRIPLE POINT, SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID  
AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING FROM  
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE  
CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE AND SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT, ALL SEVERE  
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH A COUPLE OF 2+ INCH DIAMETER HAILSTONES  
AND STRONG TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH TIME, STORMS ALONG THE  
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS,  
WHERE DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BECOME A GREATER CONCERN, ESPECIALLY AS  
STORMS APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.  
   
..TEXARKANA INTO THE OZARK VALLEY REGION  
  
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE NORTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE  
WARM FRONT TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE RED RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF REMNANT CONVECTION FROM DAY 1 STORMS.  
LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DEPICTS A WEAKER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE  
PRECEDING THE PRIMARY 500 MB TROUGH, WHICH IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE  
OZARK VALLEY AROUND 18Z. GIVEN 60+ F DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
WARM FRONT BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES, 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AMID 30+  
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY PROMOTE MULTICELLULAR AND OCCASIONAL  
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE CENTRAL  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY  
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS, THOUGH A TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED  
OUT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT, CONSIDERABLE  
CHANGES TO THE CATEGORY 1-2/MARGINAL-SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES MAY  
BE NEEDED FOR FUTURE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.    
   
..SOUTHERN IDAHO  
  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHERN IDAHO, WHERE A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN  
PLACE. ENOUGH 700-500 MB MOISTURE WILL USHER INTO THE REGION TO  
PROMOTE 500+ J/KG MUCAPE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 8.5-9.0 C/KM SURFACE  
TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES. WHILE WIND FIELDS BELOW 500 MB WILL NOT BE  
PARTICULARLY STRONG (I.E. BELOW 50 KTS), THE STEEP, DEEP-LAYER LAPSE  
RATES MAY PROMOTE EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND  
EFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO SUPPORT A COUPLE DAMAGING GUSTS.  
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY NOTED IN THE -20 TO -30C LAYER, A  
LARGE HAILSTONE ALSO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, WITH A CATEGORY  
1/MARGINAL RISK INTRODUCED TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.  
  
..SQUITIERI.. 05/01/2022 

 

 

Edited May 1, 2022 by snowlover2

[ClicheVortex2014]

New watch coming. Mention of 3-4+ inch hail

[Neoncyclone]

20 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

New watch coming. Mention of 3-4+ inch hail

Almost DVD size