April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[ClicheVortex2014]

Pretty good verification imo

[1816]

2 hours ago, Neoncyclone said:

https://fb.watch/cImzLfzoYl/

This guy gets right up in them

[1816]

2 hours ago, Ingyball said:

Gonna be honest, a little scared what we're going to find out there. 

 

Never seen anything like that before. Pretty sure those are huge buildings just getting sucked right up into the sky. Damn 

[Chinook]

looks like this is where the Andover tornado turned north-ish to hit the southeast part of town

 

[Central Illinois]

[Iceresistance]

Enhanced risk for Oklahoma on D3, it's also Hatched as well.

 

D2's Enhanced risk is over Western Panhandle Texas.

[Ingyball]

Broyles coming out with some strong wording on D3. Possible hints towards a day 2 moderate if trends continue. I'm going out on my first survey today. Unfortunate that the storms happened, but I'm excited for this opportunity to learn. 

 

 

Quote

 

...SUMMARY...

A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday over the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Large hail, wind damage and tornadoes will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of west-central Texas and in the western Tennessee Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern and central Plains on Monday, as a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will move southeastward into northwestern Oklahoma as a cold front advances southeastward into central Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. A dryline will be located from western Oklahoma into northwest Texas with a warm front in eastern Kansas. Low-level moisture advection will increase across the moist sector with surface dewpoints climbing into the lower to mid 60s F from central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Moderate instability will develop along this corridor by afternoon. Convection is forecast to initiate during the late afternoon along the western and northern edge of the stronger instability from west-central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas. A southwest-to-northeast broken line of severe storms, with discrete elements, is expected to organize from central Oklahoma north-northeastward into southeast Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat will likely continue to the late evening and early overnight period as the storms move eastward into the Ozarks.

In addition to a favorable thermodynamic environment, the mid-level jet will created moderate to strong deep-layer shear from central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense updrafts. Also, low-level shear will dramatically increase during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 45 to 55 knot low-level jet strengthens across northeastern Oklahoma. To the west and northwest of the low-level jet, lift and low-level shear will become very favorable for tornadoes. NAM forecast soundings at 00Z/Tuesday near Perry, Oklahoma have 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 450 m2/s2 with long and looped hodographs. As a result, strong tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells, and a long-track damaging tornado will be possible. Wind damage will also be likely with the downdrafts associated with supercells, and along the leading edge of any short line segments that organize. A severe threat will also be possible during the late afternoon and early evening across southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas and west-central Texas. But any threat for large hail and wind damage should remain isolated there from late afternoon to the mid evening.

..Broyles.. 04/30/2022

 

 

[Ingyball]

6z NAM is further east with the dryline, but it may not matter for south central Kansas on Monday. With that low nearby things may be a go by 18z this time. 

 

GFS is further west with the dryline, a bit south of the NAM but that's not surprising. Getting a bit worried about triple point potential here. 

[Ingyball]

1 hour ago, Ingyball said:

Broyles coming out with some strong wording on D3. Possible hints towards a day 2 moderate if trends continue. I'm going out on my first survey today. Unfortunate that the storms happened, but I'm excited for this opportunity to learn. 

 

 

 

Scratch that, can't go unfortunately since I don't have my special state ID yet. 

[Harberr62]

Sun is out here in western Indiana. 

[Iceresistance]

Very cloudy and Muggy in Western Alabama right now. (On I-22 going towards Birmingham)

[ElectricStorm]

Monday looks very concerning IMO. Shouldn't be much of a capping issue this time. We're gonna have to hope for a more linear event because anything discrete will be a problem 

[snowlover2]

LR 12z NAM looks potentially interesting around here Tuesday evening.

[Iceresistance]

Partly Cloudy in Birmingham, AL right now. (Where I'm at)

[StormfanaticInd]

Monday and Tuesday could be a problem 

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Monday and Tuesday could be a problem 

And later next week too, the GEFS is showing more potential setups.

[StormfanaticInd]

Got some clearing 🤔

[StormfanaticInd]

20 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

And later next week too, the GEFS is showing more potential setups.

Yeah this pattern is on sterlroids 

[Central Illinois]

[snowlover2]

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0592
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

   Areas affected...Eastern Iowa...southwest Wisconsin...portions of
   western...central and northwestern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 301732Z - 301930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch is likely by 19Z as storms form and
   intensify through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Destabilization is underway across the the Upper
   Midwest as dewpoints have increased into the low 60s and
   temperatures have warmed to near 70 amid broken clouds. The surface
   pattern is complicated across the warm sector this afternoon. A
   stationary front which extended from the occluded front across
   Illinois this morning has started to lift north as a warm front. The
   primary cold front extends from central Iowa across northwest
   Missouri and eastern Kansas while the initial cold front has started
   to wash out from southeast Iowa across central Missouri. The best
   low-level moisture remains east of this weakening front and
   therefore, the primary severe weather threat should remain east of
   this feature. MLCIN has started to erode across eastern Iowa and
   northwest Illinois. A bit more moisture advection and/or heating
   should be sufficient for storm development in the next 1 to 2 hours.
   Mini supercells will be possible near the surface low where wind
   profiles will also be favorable for low-level mesocyclone
   organization and potential for a tornado or two. 

   More robust storm development is expected across central Illinois
   where greater destabilization is anticipated with sufficient backed
   surface flow to support a tornado threat in addition to the threat
   for large hail and damaging winds. 17Z surface analysis shows
   temperatures 2 to 3 degrees above guidance indicating storm
   development could occur slightly earlier than 12Z guidance
   indicated.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 04/30/2022

 

 

[Central Illinois]

Where I'm at its 75 and sunny

[Neoncyclone]

Just now, snowlover2 said:

 

Last nights energy moved out really quickly this morning, getting considerable daytime heating here in SE IL as well. 

[StormfanaticInd]

They should probably upgrade to an enhanced risk giving what we are seeing 

[StormfanaticInd]

Another message discussion out. Watch likely 

[snowlover2]

Pretty big expansion south of the enhanced area on day 2 update.

Quote

  Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be
   possible Sunday afternoon into early Sunday night across the
   southern High Plains.

   ...Southern High Plains Sunday afternoon/night...
   In the wake of an occluded cyclone over western IA, a surface cold
   front will stall across central TX this afternoon.  This boundary
   will begin to move northward as a warm front Sunday morning, in
   response to High Plains lee cyclogenesis in advance of another
   shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Pacific Northwest
   toward areas near/north of the Four Corners.  Rich low-level
   moisture is present south of the stalling front, where lowest 100 mb
   mean mixing ratios are in the 14-15 g/kg range (corresponding to dew
   points in the upper 60s to lower 70s).  This moisture will spread
   northwestward during the day to the east of the developing lee
   trough.  The ongoing extreme drought has recently supported more
   rapid surface heating and vertical mixing of moisture during the
   afternoon, though this effect could be offset by the initial
   moisture return above the surface and downward mixing of moisture in
   the warm advection regime.

   The increasing low-level moisture beneath typically steep midlevel
   lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) will result in moderate-strong buoyancy
   by afternoon (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) to the east of a
   developing dryline in NM.  Wind profiles will also become more
   conducive to supercells with moderately strong westerly flow aloft,
   atop increasing low-level hodograph size/clockwise curvature through
   the afternoon/evening in the warm advection regime.  It appears that
   the cap will be relatively weak, so scattered thunderstorm
   development is likely by mid-late afternoon from southwest TX
   northward near the TX/NM border, with multiple clusters/supercells
   possible.  Convection will likely persist into the overnight hours,
   while spreading eastward near the warm front into OK.

   Large hail will be a common threat with the supercells during the
   afternoon/evening, potentially up to 2 to 3 inches in diameter given
   the strong steep lapse rates/strong buoyancy with long hodographs. 
   Steep low-level lapse rates and large DCAPE will favor the potential
   for occasional severe outflow gusts, especially with clusters of
   storms by evening.  The tornado threat is a bit more complicated. 
   Low-level shear will become more favorable for low-level rotation in
   supercells by evening, with the expectation of somewhat richer
   moisture with eastward extent and closer to the surface warm front. 
   However, the more discrete storm modes are more probable farther
   west in a somewhat drier environment, so the tornado threat may
   ultimately come down to areas of locally richer moisture and
   favorable storm interactions.

   ...Upper OH Valley into VA/NC Sunday afternoon/evening...
   A weakening shortwave trough and surface cold front will move across
   the upper OH Valley tomorrow afternoon/evening, and a slow-moving
   warm front will extend eastward near the NC/VA border.  Modest
   low-level moisture/buoyancy and some increase in midlevel flow will
   support the potential for isolated damaging winds and some hail with
   convective clusters along the warm front and ahead of the cold
   front.

   ..Thompson.. 04/30/2022