Iceresistance Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 @OKwx_2001 GFS trending wetter, & also trended the storm line on Sunday more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Please take this as a grain of Salt, but Today could have some potential in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 🧐 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said: 🧐 They're thinking Supercell action in Oklahoma, but I have a feeling that this is going to overperform BIG TIME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 (edited) Man my money is on South Dakota today, if supercells really do develop there. Just a little low-level cape will go a lonnnng way, We'll have to see if the inversion holds. The supercells that form in South Dakota almost seem to anchor to the top of the warm sector, we've seen what can happen in that situation. some crazy SRH as well. Here's a sounding just ahead of a developing supercell, 18z HRRR. Edited April 22, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: They're thinking Supercell action in Oklahoma, but I have a feeling that this is going to overperform BIG TIME! I don't really see this overperforming overall as it should go linear pretty quickly. That being said, it only takes one to make it a memorable event. In any case I'm pretty confident we'll end up getting some solid storms, unlike the last few events here. I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see an enhanced risk for wind but that might be a low chance. Edited April 22, 2022 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCentral Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 First post here and First chase of mine coming Saturday Any insight from the smarter folk here on 4/23 conditions? Specifically on the Fargo area storms, and the where/when for anything notable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 38 minutes ago, SteelCentral said: First post here and First chase of mine coming Saturday Any insight from the smarter folk here on 4/23 conditions? Specifically on the Fargo area storms, and the where/when for anything notable. Welcome to the forum! As for details, @ClicheVortex2014, @Ingyball, @OKwx_2001, and @Neoncyclone would be better suited to answer that question (sorry if i left anyone out). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, SteelCentral said: First post here and First chase of mine coming Saturday Any insight from the smarter folk here on 4/23 conditions? Specifically on the Fargo area storms, and the where/when for anything notable. This part of the system is really all you have to worry about. They're elevated storms so just a hail threat if it makes it as far east as Fargo. The tornado/possibly higher wind threat will be to your southeast. Timing is early afternoon. Edited April 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Severe watch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 Wildfires be starting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 I know a lot of chasers are hoping for panhandle magic tonight, Kansas might steal the show though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 (edited) Soundings from the Panhandle and SW KS. Overall pretty dry and DDC is capped but I'd imagine it won't be for much longer. AMA has superadiabatic near-surface lapse rates. 7 degree temp difference in 500 feet. If that rate of cooling continues to 1km, there would be a 45 degree difference. In other words, 45C/km lapse rates. 9C/km is considered very steep. The ongoing drought plus daytime heating and modest dew points contribute to this layer Edited April 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Rapid City radar is down... great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 Got some intense mid-level mesos moving into SW KS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 (edited) Here's the supercell in SD that I'm looking at for tornado potential tonight, if it stalls on the cool side of the warm front like models had been suggesting earlier today it would definitely have some potential for one or two brief, probably photogenic tornadoes. (as the high plains do) Edited April 22, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Baseball sized hail reported near Eva, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Surprisingly active dry-line today, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 Feels and looks like spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Feels and looks like spring That one Supercell in South Dakota just EXPLODED! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 SPC mentions the severe watch in TX may need to be replaced with a tornado watch...yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 23, 2022 Share Posted April 23, 2022 Hugoton KS cell looks like it has some decent storm relative velocities, but not highly organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted April 23, 2022 Admin Share Posted April 23, 2022 Rough day on the plains out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 23, 2022 Starting to get some tornado warnings in Kansas. Nocturnal LLJ is kicking in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 23, 2022 Share Posted April 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Starting to get some tornado warnings in Kansas. Nocturnal LLJ is kicking in It already looks like that the Tornado-Warned Supercell has a CC drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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