Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 Appears the northern supercell is turning right. Gonna have to ingest a few cells. I’m watching the southernmost cell… especially if it can ride the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 Gee I wonder where the CWA border is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Popular Post MaineJay Posted April 22, 2022 Admin Popular Post Share Posted April 22, 2022 My dad is currently camping in Kansas, not sure what town yet, but he just sent me a couple pictures from there. 5 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, MaineJay said: My dad is currently camping in Kansas, not sure what town yet, but he just sent me a couple pictures from there. Absolutely incredible 18 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Gee I wonder where the CWA border is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Popular Post MaineJay Posted April 22, 2022 Admin Popular Post Share Posted April 22, 2022 And one more, they were taken near Dodge City. 5 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 That tornado warned cell also has possible 2" hail. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 828 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 KSC047-220200- /O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220422T0200Z/ Edwards KS- 828 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY... At 828 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Windhorst, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Kinsley. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3780 9956 3796 9952 3789 9934 3774 9949 3774 9955 3775 9956 TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 214DEG 21KT 3780 9953 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Tornado warning in KS was cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 Whats interesting about this evening is that the northernmost supercell was in the most favorable conditions for a tornado, yet it was the southernmost one that actually warranted a tornado warning. Goes to show there’s more to it than parameters. This time it was the boundary marked by a temp gradient and a change in surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Looks like they dropped the tornado watch already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 0z HRRR looking spicy for tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 The CAMs have some isolated cells tomorrow between Pine Ridge, SD and the Black Hills, possibly traveling to Rapid City and northeastward. Storm-relative helicity could be in the range of 400m2/s2 to 800m2/s2 with some significant elevated CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 (edited) Although whatever happens tomorrow might throw a wrench in it, I think Saturday will be another big severe weather day. Negative tilt finally ejects from the Rockies... sub-990mb low. Storm mode might be tricky but there should be plenty of low-level shear with a negative tilt and a low this strong... and dew points might get into the mid-60s which is pretty impressive for anyone north of I70 at this time of year... much less Minnesota. Edited April 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: And one more, they were taken near Dodge City. Never gets old! It has always amazed how a small puffy cumulus cloud can just explode into supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Severe storms have fired up in southern NE. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 140 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southwest Iowa South central into east central Nebraska * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1115 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms, some with supercell structures, will persist overnight with a primary threat for occasional large hail of 1.5 to 2 inches in diameter. The strongest storms may also produce isolated damaging gusts up to 60 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Grand Island NE to 45 miles south southeast of Tekamah NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Thompson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 (edited) Warm front still somewhat intrigues me tomorrow 🤔 Edited April 22, 2022 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 16 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Warm front still somewhat intrigues me tomorrow 🤔 We'll see if the EML proves to be too much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: We'll see if the EML proves to be too much Yeah that cap looks pretty strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 SPC had the highest possible fire weather risk category out for Friday by day 2. You can probably guess where and why just by this loop. The drought only exacerbates things. Extreme NE CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Quote DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2022 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL, ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY, AS A 80 TO 100 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TODAY AS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS TO THE EAST OF A HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F BY MID AFTERNOON FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY, WITH MLCAPE REACHING THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS PERSISTING INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM RANGE WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS, FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WHERE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST FAVORABLE. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING, 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL COULD PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING, AS THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ..NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AS A 80 TO 100 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON, MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TODAY, AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING, WITH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE FURTHER TO THE EAST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT VALENTINE, NEBRASKA NEAR THE PEAK OF INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE A LOADED GUN PROFILE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION, HODOGRAPHS ARE LONG AND LOOPED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES NEAR 400 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS WELL WITH THE MORE DOMINANT CELLS, ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS STORMS MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..BROYLES/JIRAK.. 04/22/2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted April 22, 2022 Admin Share Posted April 22, 2022 5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Never gets old! It has always amazed how a small puffy cumulus cloud can just explode into supercells It was funny, my dad texted me and was like, "what's this over my campground?". Last I talked to him, he was in Arizona, so I was confused when looking at the radar. Then he told me he was in KS, but not the town, so I'm like, well, there are some potential dangerous storms in the area. He is driving to Missouri today, so I can't get him to do any storm chasing in his camper converted sprinter van. I'm Maine, we don't get to see structures like that very often, so it was pretty cool to get the pics, especially when I knew he was out of harms way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 Storm structures were amazing yesterday. Got called in early to work so couldn't join in on the chatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 Beautiful EML at OUN. Straight up porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 48 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Beautiful EML at OUN. Straight up porn. Stupid Drought & Cap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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