Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 (edited) 5% tornado area added for tomorrow. The enhanced risk is right over areas currently in extreme drought so hopefully they can cash in with some good rain. There will probably be some massive hailers, at least initially while the storms are discrete, luckily this will be over a mostly rural area. Could actually end up as a solid chase day if the storms can remain discrete. As for today, the HRRR has been pretty consistent in only showing one cell firing in the main slight risk area. As I said yesterday, I don't really see a whole lot happening, but if anything actually does form it could be pretty explosive. Edited April 21, 2022 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 (edited) CIPS analogues for Saturday are a lot more interesting than I expected, including 5/19/13, and 5/8/03, and a few others. We'll see what the CAM's show, but I'm a bit more confident in storms developing around here Saturday than I have been for the recent slight risks. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&rundt=2022042112&map=thbSVR Edited April 21, 2022 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 (edited) 34 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: CIPS analogues for Saturday are a lot more interesting than I expected, including 5/19/13, and 5/8/03, and a few others. We'll see what the CAM's show, but I'm a bit more confident in storms developing around here Saturday than I have been for the recent slight risks. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&rundt=2022042112&map=thbSVR I'm actually shocked that they put out 5/19/2013 as a analog. I've also discovered that 5/20/2013 is also included as well. Edited April 21, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 21, 2022 (edited) 59 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: 5% tornado area added for tomorrow. The enhanced risk is right over areas currently in extreme drought so hopefully they can cash in with some good rain. There will probably be some massive hailers, at least initially while the storms are discrete, luckily this will be over a mostly rural area. Could actually end up as a solid chase day if the storms can remain discrete. As for today, the HRRR has been pretty consistent in only showing one cell firing in the main slight risk area. As I said yesterday, I don't really see a whole lot happening, but if anything actually does form it could be pretty explosive. Agreed about significant severe weather potential with the discrete cells but I can’t imagine they’d stay discrete for much longer than an hour. Should also occur while the sun is setting which will make the storms look real nice and then real… dark Edited April 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 First tornado warning of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bman10 said: First tornado warning of the day. And that's on the general storm/marginal line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Possible 2" hail with it now. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Springfield MO 503 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 MOC059-077-167-212230- /O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220421T2230Z/ Dallas MO-Polk MO-Greene MO- 503 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS...SOUTHERN POLK AND NORTH CENTRAL GREENE COUNTIES... At 502 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Morrisville, or 7 miles south of Bolivar, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Bolivar... Stockton Lake... Pleasant Hope... Fair Play... Morrisville... Halfway... Aldrich... Eudora... Brighton... Foose... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3768 9356 3759 9310 3734 9323 3746 9362 TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 292DEG 32KT 3750 9341 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Already dropped 1.75" hail in Bolivar. Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 506 PM CDT THU APR 21 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0503 PM HAIL BOLIVAR 37.61N 93.41W 04/21/2022 E1.75 INCH POLK MO AMATEUR RADIO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Only severe warned now but with Golf Ball hail and 70mph winds. Quote BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Springfield MO 525 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Webster County in southwestern Missouri... Southern Dallas County in southwestern Missouri... Southeastern Polk County in southwestern Missouri... Northeastern Greene County in southwestern Missouri... * Until 615 PM CDT. * At 524 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pleasant Hope, or 9 miles southeast of Bolivar, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Public. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Bolivar... Fair Grove... Pleasant Hope... Morrisville... Halfway... Olive... Elkland... Brighton... Foose... March... Charity... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3767 9345 3758 9290 3732 9299 3744 9353 TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 283DEG 24KT 3751 9329 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Not sure i've ever seen a hail report without a measurement. Sounds like it's on the big side. Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 525 PM CDT THU APR 21 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0505 PM HAIL BOLIVAR 37.61N 93.41W 04/21/2022 NAN INCH POLK MO PUBLIC REPORTS OF SKYLIGHTS AND SIDING BROKEN FROM HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 21, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Not sure i've ever seen a hail report without a measurement. Sounds like it's on the big side. Yeah I don’t know exactly how high reflectivity was but it looked like 75+. “Increasing concern” for supercells. 60% chance for watch. Gonna go ahead and renew my Radarscope pro at least for a month. It’s been a few years since it expired and I never bothered getting it back Edit: oh wow only $10 for a year. The hell? Edited April 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 That cell was mean looking. It had some 75+ before it was tor warned like an hour ago as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0528 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 Areas affected...Southwest KS into extreme northwest OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 212233Z - 220030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Tornado watch is being considered for portions of southwest Kansas. DISCUSSION...Pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies will continue this evening such that low-level moisture should gradually advance north-northwest across the southern/central High Plains. Strengthening LLJ will aid this process as it focuses across western OK/southwest KS over the next few hours. Intense surface heating has contributed to a near-dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 3km across the TX Panhandle into northwest OK and extreme southwest KS. As a result, boundary-layer cu are now developing along the eastern edge of this steep lapse-rate plume, extending into southwest KS (DDC region) where low-level convergence is focused. Satellite imagery suggests agitated cu field over eastern portions of DDC CWA may be close to producing showers. Current trends suggest thunderstorms may evolve over this region, and given the shear/moisture supercells are expected. Will continue to monitor this region for a tornado watch. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/21/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Tornado warned again and looks like it may be close to producing. About to cross I-44 pretty soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Tornado warning in California? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Back to just severe warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 21, 2022 East to see where the dryline and warm front intersect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 139 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Kansas * Effective this Thursday evening from 645 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A couple of supercells are expected this evening across southwest Kansas, in a storm environment that will support the threat for isolated very large hail up to 3 inch diameter, and a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Russell KS to 35 miles west of Medicine Lodge KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Thought you guys might enjoy this, got a drone today so I decided to test it out on a small storm to the northwest dji_export_1650585600307.mp4 It's not the most exciting storm, just some rain in the distance, which you can barely see since it's not HD (had to record my phone screen since drone has no SD card). If we get any bigger storms in the next few days though I'll be sure to capture something for you guys! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 (edited) Watching Vince Waelti's stream on youtube, some absolutely stunning LP structure in Kansas right now. Edited April 22, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Severe warnings going up in the KS tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 22, 2022 (edited) Nice hail sounding out of Dodge. We'll see if the LLJ kicking in ups the tornado threat at all. Edited April 22, 2022 by Ingyball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Oh yikes! Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Dodge City KS 757 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Pawnee County in south central Kansas... Southern Rush County in central Kansas... * Until 845 PM CDT. * At 756 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Nekoma, moving east at 30 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Nekoma. HAZARD...Baseball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... La Crosse and Rush Center around 810 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include Bison, Timken, Otis and Shaffer. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central and central Kansas. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central and central Kansas. && LAT...LON 3833 9903 3831 9952 3856 9956 3859 9903 TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 269DEG 27KT 3842 9943 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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