April 21-23(?), 2022 | Severe Weather

[ClicheVortex2014]

Holy gradient

Edited April 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

HRRR develops a cell around 2z/9pm

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Convection tried and failed in E OK. Updrafts choked off and cumulus disappearing.

Edited April 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Convection tried and failed in E OK. Updrafts choked off and cumulus disappearing.

What's choking them? The cap or poor forcing?

[ClicheVortex2014]

Just now, Iceresistance said:

What's choking them? The cap or poor forcing?

Forcing at least gave it a shot... but the weak low-level stability/potential cap that NAM was showing earlier apparently verified.

[Iceresistance]

38 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Forcing at least gave it a shot... but the weak low-level stability/potential cap that NAM was showing earlier apparently verified.

Goes to show that even a crazy model like the NAM can literally verify in the most unexpected way.

[ElectricStorm]

Another slight risk in OK another fail, that's the name of the game this year so far. Eventually one of these will come in clutch, but it might not be for a while. Maybe we'll get something at the end of the month, and if not then maybe May will be better. 

Saturday does look interesting with a nice looking dryline on the GFS but I'm probably too far south to get any action but you never know 

Edited April 21, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

Can see the dryline and warm sector clear as day.  

[ClicheVortex2014]

13 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Another slight risk in OK another fail, that's the name of the game this year so far. Eventually one of these will come in clutch, but it might not be for a while. Maybe we'll get something at the end of the month, and if not then maybe May will be better. 

Disappointed we're likely to go through April without much action in our localities but yeah... one thing the Plains and IL/IN/W OH shares in common is that we'll eventually get something significant. Your time is in the next 40 days and has far higher chance to be high magnitude, but we've still got 3 months of a moderate chance for a moderate to possibly high magnitude. 

This upcoming cool weather spell is being forced, or at least strongly influenced, by a Typhoon recurving. Not like it has anything to do with a changing ENSO state because the La Nina is still hanging in there. In fact, it might be loading up to make another push to moderate Nina for a couple weeks again. Latest Nino 1+2 weekly anomaly is -1.7C. Nino 3.4 still at -0.9C. So I'd imagine we'll see the same old pattern reload once the Typhoon influence wanes.

Edited April 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

20 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Saturday does look interesting with a nice looking dryline on the GFS but I'm probably too far south to get any action but you never know 

KFOR has really taken note of that. (Mike Morgan's Tweet is somewhat of a 'Way too early' type.)

[Iceresistance]

12 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Disappointed we're likely to go through April without much action in our localities but yeah... one thing the Plains and IL/IN/W OH shares in common is that we'll eventually get something significant. Your time is in the next 40 days and has far higher chance to be high magnitude, but we've still got 3 months of a moderate chance for a moderate to possibly high magnitude. 

This upcoming cool weather spell is being forced, or at least strongly influenced, by a Typhoon recurving. Not like it has anything to do with a changing ENSO state because the La Nina is still hanging in there. In fact, it might be loading up to make another push to moderate Nina for a couple weeks again. Latest Nino 1+2 weekly anomaly is -1.7C. Nino 3.4 still at -0.9C. So I'd imagine we'll see the same old pattern reload once the Typhoon influence wanes.

The NAO is posed to become Negative, could that cause issues to the La Nina-like pattern?

[ClicheVortex2014]

2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The NAO is posed to become Negative, could that cause issues to the La Nina-like pattern?

AO and NAO loses a lot of their influence in the warm season. I believe that Typhoon also forced some of that via wavebreaking. So I don't think that's too big a deal

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

AO and NAO loses a lot of their influence in the warm season. I believe that Typhoon also forced some of that via wavebreaking. So I don't think that's too big a deal

It's the PDO that is a huge factor for QPF potential, however, the SOI is absolutely positive with no signs of crashing anytime soon, & a long-lived +SOI has very dry & hot weather conditions for most of the CONUS.

[ElectricStorm]

28 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Disappointed we're likely to go through April without much action in our localities but yeah... one thing the Plains and IL/IN/W OH shares in common is that we'll eventually get something significant. Your time is in the next 40 days and has far higher chance to be high magnitude, but we've still got 3 months of a moderate chance for a moderate to possibly high magnitude. 

This upcoming cool weather spell is being forced, or at least strongly influenced, by a Typhoon recurving. Not like it has anything to do with a changing ENSO state because the La Nina is still hanging in there. In fact, it might be loading up to make another push to moderate Nina for a couple weeks again. Latest Nino 1+2 weekly anomaly is -1.7C. Nino 3.4 still at -0.9C. So I'd imagine we'll see the same old pattern reload once the Typhoon influence wanes.

The problem is our Mays recently have been pretty terrible, and it would suck to get another May 2018, 2020, or 2021 repeat. Two of those had one solid event but the rest of the month was crap. 2020 was just flat out terrible. I'd like to think this year will be better than those, we've had bad Aprils followed by big Mays before so we'll see. 

I don't want any outbreaks of course but a few good storms would be nice. Haven't had thunder here since 4/4

[ClicheVortex2014]

29 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It's the PDO that is a huge factor for QPF potential, however, the SOI is absolutely positive with no signs of crashing anytime soon, & a long-lived +SOI has very dry & hot weather conditions for most of the CONUS.

La Nina/GoM is a much bigger factor for qpf. La Nina is the biggest player in the global weather pattern right now. I still don't know if the whole significance of PDO is about correlation with the large scale pattern or if it actually forces a pattern.

Edited April 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

20 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

La Nina/GoM is a much bigger factor for qpf. La Nina is the biggest player in the global weather pattern right now. I still don't know if the whole significance of PDO is about correlation with the large scale pattern or if it actually forces a pattern.

The GoM is above normal for this time of the year, but I don't get it on why it's not doing much on the QPF, maybe because of terrible luck/drought?

Edited April 21, 2022 by Iceresistance

[ClicheVortex2014]

13 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The GoM is above normal for this time of the year, but I don't get it on why it's not doing much on the QPF, maybe because of terrible luck/drought?

Yeah, luck and drought. We've seen the GoM do work since December. Think about Iowa getting smacked in December, March, and early April. The Plains has been getting hit by a lot of strong systems, and the combination of strong surface winds, daytime heating, and dry soil has taken big bites out of low-level moisture.

There's been a lot of talk about EMLs being stronger than usual for months because of the Southwest drought and I think that's verifying. Hard to say for sure.

Edited April 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

11 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Yeah, luck and drought. We've seen the GoM do work since December. Think about Iowa getting smacked in December, March, and early April. The Plains has been getting hit by a lot of strong systems, and the combination of strong surface winds, daytime heating, and dry soil has taken big bites out of low-level moisture.

There's been a lot of talk about EMLs being stronger than usual for months because of the Southwest drought and I think that's verifying. Hard to say for sure.

It was mostly the case in 2020 & 2021, the Plains' storm season mostly flopped those years.

[ClicheVortex2014]

7 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It was mostly the case in 2020 & 2021, the Plains' storm season mostly flopped those years.

I think the Plains are really hit-or-miss in La Ninas. Ninas are more favorable for the South and OV. I think neutral ENSO is more for the Plains. We haven't really had a truly neutral ENSO in a while. We've had a few "events" that came up just short.

[ElectricStorm]

3km NAM has a couple of short lived cells firing tomorrow in NW OK, but not much in KS. HRRR has basically nothing. If storms are able to form, I think NW OK/S KS would be the place to watch for the best potential. Like all the other recent slight risks, we probably won't see much, but anything that does form could be explosive. One of these slight risks will eventually produce...

Edited April 21, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

Little bit of low-level shear in Arkansas. Got some hail producers in N AR.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Large day 2 enhanced. Only a marginal risk for tornadoes so I guess they aren't buying the more decent low-level moisture return solutions

[ClicheVortex2014]

Slight risk for tornadoes and hail (possibly significant) for day 1. Only a few storms may develop but they'd have 'considerable' severe potential if they can sustain an updraft.

Sounds like basically the same thing as Wednesday except this one is in better storm chasing territory. Plus, the few number of cells expected should make it a great day to observe some structures.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1250 AM CDT THU APR 21 2022  
  
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL, ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED  
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO  
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  
   
..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS  
  
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS TODAY, WITH SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN  
THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE  
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM THE  
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. TO THE EAST OF THE  
DRYLINE AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE  
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE  
INTO THE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S F BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL  
YIELD MLCAPE IN THE 1200 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  
HOWEVER, A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY PREVENT CONVECTIVE  
INITIATION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL  
BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING, AS LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED ALONG THE WARM FRONT, AND AS THE  
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD  
TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AND  
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  
  
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL  
EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE 0-6 KM  
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. A PLUME OF STEEP  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. STORMS THAT INITIATE IN THE  
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND NEAR THE PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE  
WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THE  
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE  
EVENING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY  
SUPERCELL THAT CAN OVERCOME THE CAP. THERE IS CONDITIONALITY WITH  
THIS FORECAST, DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. AS A RESULT,  
ONLY TWO OR THREE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE  
CONSIDERABLE WITH ANY UPDRAFT THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER.  

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

32 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Large day 2 enhanced. Only a marginal risk for tornadoes so I guess they aren't buying the more decent low-level moisture return solutions

The models as of 12z had nearly nothing happening for this time frame (now 48 hours away). But I guess the SPC really loves the idea of multiple areas of severe wind reports. Maybe it will happen.

[ClicheVortex2014]

9 minutes ago, Chinook said:

The models as of 12z had nearly nothing happening for this time frame (now 48 hours away). But I guess the SPC really loves the idea of multiple areas of severe wind reports. Maybe it will happen.

HRRR tends to over-mix at this range so it's not surprising to me that it's dry. 

All the other CAMs have convection at 0z. With the strength of the system and the dryline getting absorbed by the cold front, I'd imagine they'd develop a squall pretty quickly after 0z.

 

Not a fan of 3km NAM but it has a nice looking squall developing

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014