April 21-23(?), 2022 | Severe Weather

[Iceresistance]

9 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

HRRR has a nice round of rain/storms moving through here this afternoon/evening. Shouldn't be severe by any means but it'll be nice to finally get a storm again

I know, the SOI is ridiculously positive.

[Iceresistance]

Welp, College of DuPage will not have GEFS runs until Tomorrow due to the NCEP scheduled maintenance.

Edited April 19, 2022 by Iceresistance

[ClicheVortex2014]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I know, the SOI is ridiculously positive.

SOI has a delayed impact on the US pattern but you can't really pin it solely on the Plains being active/inactive... or any region really.

SOI can also be a symptom of a larger cause... like an active MJO. 

Edited April 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

NAM doesn't really have capping problems in Nebraska. Low-level moisture is much more favorable.

 

It has some Texas Panhandle magic. Looks like a sounding that favors damaging winds.

 

Edited April 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Ingyball]

2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

SOI has a delayed impact on the US pattern but you can't really pin it solely on the Plains being active/inactive... or any region really.

SOI can also be a symptom of a larger cause... like an active MJO. 

I'm not even sure SOI dumps really have an influence on our severe weather in the Plains anyways. SOI dumps usually lead to widespread beneficial rainfall, which you could argue is detrimental to severe weather. A lot of the Plains worst tornadoes come on days with conditional severe but the cap breaks. This correlates more with La Nina and +SOI than it does with El Nino and -SOI. That's not to say we don't get big tors in El Nino, it's just more difficult to get that capped atmosphere that makes the environment so violent if the cap does break. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

NAM still has a relatively small window for supercell tornadoes in Nebraska. Still has an uncapped W TX that would be damaging winds/hail. I could see a MCS developing in Nebraska along the warm front and be quite nasty.

I'll be surprised if they go with day 3 enhanced. I'd say a NAM-like solution has a shot at verifying because the whole warm front situation here is the kind of thing a mesoscale model... like NAM... should be good at. But very strong mixing in the warm sector does make sense. 

If a NAM-like solution does verify, this seems like one of those days where there are two pockets of greater severe potential. Nebraska and west Texas. Both should at least be hatched for hail and/or wind.

Edited April 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Some fun for Ingy on Thursday

 

Marginal risk for tornadoes/wind today.... 15% hatched hail

[Ingyball]

5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Some fun for Ingy on Thursday

 

Marginal risk for tornadoes/wind today.... 15% hatched hail

Yeah been watching Thursday, just not sure storms go up yet. 

[ElectricStorm]

HRRR continues to show nothing happening in the slight risk today and the way this month is going I'm fully expecting it to be right... 

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Standards are low at this point... but NAM has some potential for strong storms in Ohio if the cap breaks. Even saying a brief mesocyclone is really pushing it, so this would be a multicell day with some small hail and strong winds.

[ClicheVortex2014]

SREF really highlights Saturday. This is further north than SPC's day 4 slight.

 

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Tulsa is saying that there may be severe storms today but 'Development is still conditional"

[ClicheVortex2014]

Nice sounding upstream of the slight risk today.

Saturated low-levels through like 800mb. Nice EML above that.

[Iceresistance]

16 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Nice sounding upstream of the slight risk today.

Saturated low-levels through like 800mb. Nice EML above that.

The timing in not good right now, but will this have implications for later today?

 

EDIT: It looks WAY better compared to the 0z sounding

Edited April 20, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Iceresistance]

What is with the NAM? It keeps screaming "PDS Tornado" soundings in Oklahoma for today, but I strongly doubt it.

[ClicheVortex2014]

8 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The timing in not good right now, but will this have implications for later today?

 

EDIT: It looks WAY better compared to the 0z sounding

At least some parts of the profile should be advected into the slight risk area today. The saturated low-levels will be mixed out with daytime heating but should remain relatively saturated. 

What will translate more cleanly is the EML.

[ClicheVortex2014]

29 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

What is with the NAM? It keeps screaming "PDS Tornado" soundings in Oklahoma for today, but I strongly doubt it.

Reading SPC's outlook, sounds like they also believe parameters should be quite high. They mention 2000-2500 mlcape, 50-60 knots effective shear, and a 'brief window' for a substantial increase in hodograph size/effective SRH. Out of context, that sounds like considerable tornado potential.

The issue is concerns about storms developing in the first place, and if they do, if they'll be able to stay surface-based given the nearly stable 0-1km layer. Otherwise they'll be elevated and therefore a very big hail producer.

Edited April 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

5% tornado area added for NE OK. Decent chance for some solid storms back home, but I'm not very confident I'll get anything here

[ClicheVortex2014]

Crazy how strong the first half(ish) of the tornado season favored La Nina climatology. With the La Nina still going almost as strong as it was a few months ago and the semi-permanent/seasonal Southern ridge coming in May, at least one region will see a huge uptick in severe weather while the South checks out.

Logically you'd expect the Plains to benefit... but with a drought in the western half of the Plains, it's more questionable. I have trouble believing the Plains will be shut out of tornado season... but this may be a spread the wealth season.

[TLChip]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Crazy how strong the first half(ish) of the tornado season favored La Nina climatology. With the La Nina still going almost as strong as it was a few months ago and the semi-permanent/seasonal Southern ridge coming in May, at least one region will see a huge uptick in severe weather while the South checks out.

Logically you'd expect the Plains to benefit... but with a drought in the western half of the Plains, it's more questionable. I have trouble believing the Plains will be shut out of tornado season... but this may be a spread the wealth season.

The mid-Atlantic was very active last year iirc. I know NJ had a lot of warnings and SEPA had a few small outbreaks (nothing like a real severe event like you guys get). 
 

I don’t have numbers to back it up but it seems like we’ve been getting more frequent tornados. I’ve also been tracking severe weather more than I did before though so might be bias.

 

Thanks @ClicheVortex2014@Ingyball  @Iceresistance  @OKwx_2001 
You guys are constantly posting great information and it’s really brought out my curiosity related to severe weather. In the past I only really tracked snow events in the NE. 

[ElectricStorm]

Quote

 Mesoscale Discussion 0524
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern OK into far
   southeastern KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 202046Z - 202315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...If isolated thunderstorms can develop this afternoon, they
   would pose a threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps
   a tornado. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...20Z surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low centered just
   south of Wichita KS in far south-central KS. A dryline extends
   southward from this low across central OK and into north-central TX.
   Recent visible satellite imagery indicates some attempts at
   deeper/towering cu over south-central OK, with additional
   development across north-central OK into far southern KS. Surface
   temperatures have become quite hot along/behind the dryline, with
   many areas in western/central OK showing mid 80s to mid 90s. A
   narrow corridor of diurnal heating has occurred so far this
   afternoon just ahead of the dryline in central/eastern OK as a low
   stratus deck continues to slowly erode. Surface temperatures in the
   70s to mid 80s have become common across this area. Steep mid-level
   lapse rates present on the 12Z OUN sounding are still present over
   the warm sector, and latest mesoanalysis estimates that MLCAPE
   around 1500-2500 J/kg has developed along/ahead of the dryline.

   40-50 kt of westerly mid-level flow associated with a low-amplitude
   shortwave trough remains over much of the southern Plains. Similar
   values of effective bulk shear will easily support supercells, if
   they develop. Greater than usual uncertainty continues regarding
   whether any thunderstorms will initiate along the dryline over the
   next few hours, as large-scale forcing remains fairly weak.
   Regardless, if an isolated thunderstorm or two can develop, it would
   likely become supercellular and pose a threat for very large hail
   (2+ inch diameter) and damaging winds. Although low-level flow has
   veered in the vicinity of the dryline in central OK, it remains
   modestly enhanced over eastern OK and vicinity. If any convection
   that may develop this afternoon can persist with eastward extent
   into the early evening, then it could pose a threat for an isolated
   tornado. Observational trends will continue to be closely monitored
   for possible watch issuance over the next few hours.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 04/20/2022

 

I don't really see much happening today, but it still needs to be watched as anything that can develop will probably be pretty explosive. 

Edited April 20, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

21 minutes ago, TLChip said:

The mid-Atlantic was very active last year iirc. I know NJ had a lot of warnings and SEPA had a few small outbreaks (nothing like a real severe event like you guys get). 
 

I don’t have numbers to back it up but it seems like we’ve been getting more frequent tornados. I’ve also been tracking severe weather more than I did before though so might be bias.

 

Thanks @ClicheVortex2014@Ingyball  @Iceresistance  @OKwx_2001 
You guys are constantly posting great information and it’s really brought out my curiosity related to severe weather. In the past I only really tracked snow events in the NE. 

Yeah the east coast got nailed last year. Was weird. I think my area only got 3 tornado watches and 1 severe watch last year. Very weird.

[ClicheVortex2014]

16 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

I don't really see much happening today, but it still needs to be watched as anything that can develop will probably be pretty explosive. 

 

[Ingyball]

Cumulus field looks good, we may see things go across E-central Oklahoma