April 15-17, 2022 | Storms/Severe Weather

[ClicheVortex2014]

Tornado emergency busts certainly aren't unheardof... there's been plenty of F/EF0 tornado emergencies. Your first thought might be that the tornado just didn't hit any structures at the right strength... but tornado emergencies are supposed to be issued when a confirmed high-end tornado is approaching a dense population.

Sometimes NWS is fed bad information. It happens.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_tornado_emergencies

Edited April 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

I'm not gonna sit here and try to argue against a NWS office since obviously I'm not an expert like them but I'm not seeing anything that makes me think this should have been a tornado emergency...

The 2nd torando report of a Wedge Tornado over Hardy screamed for a 'Tornado Emergency', because it met the 2 conditions: A Potentially dangerous tornado on the ground, and it's over a populated area.

[Ingyball]

2 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

I'm not gonna sit here and try to argue against a NWS office since obviously I'm not an expert like them but I'm not seeing anything that makes me think this should have been a tornado emergency...

I guess I'm in a little better place to speak, but TOR-Es need to be a full ops decision to go with one. I'm hoping it's not 1 person just deciding to do it. Assuming Little Rock (or whichever office issued the warning) is correctly staffed for severe weather (at least 3 most likely 4 if not 5) there should have been 4 pairs of eyes looking at the storm and then a unanimous 4 yeses that agreed that it warranted a TOR-E. TOR-Es should be almost as rare as violent tors imo. The message is basically seek shelter or you will die. We can't let that be desensitized.

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Tornado emergency busts certainly aren't unheard of... there's been plenty of F/EF0 tornado emergencies. Your first thought might be that the tornado just didn't hit any structures at the right strength... but tornado emergencies are supposed to be issued when a confirmed strong tornado is approaching a dense population.

Sometimes NWS is fed bad information. It happens.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_tornado_emergencies

This may have been the first Tornado Emergency bust in a long time.

 

It was also occurring mostly at night, which could been a catastrophe since it's extremely difficult to see it in the darkness, like the December 2021 Quad State Tornado Family.

There was also MASSIVE Hail as well, which did not help any.

[Chinook]

some 3-D sections of this storm at different places

 

[ElectricStorm]

6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The 2nd torando report of a Wedge Tornado over Hardy screamed for a 'Tornado Emergency', because it met the 2 conditions: A Potentially dangerous tornado on the ground, and it's over a populated area.

The problem is this thing was a TOR-E for almost an hour and pretty much all the damage reports could have been done by hail or straight line winds. Theres always a chance the person who reported a wedge could have been looking at a scud cloud. Normally if a storm is TOR-E for that long there's multiple reports of intense damage along the whole path, think of storms like central AL last year (3/25) or Mayfield. Theres absolutely none of that here. 

I'm not saying there wasn't a tornado and I think there was, as a few pictures on twitter seemed to appear like a weak tornado may have been on the ground, but I don't agree with the TOR-E, unless there's more damage reports that come out later, but I doubt it. 

Edited April 16, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[snowlover2]

5 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

I guess I'm in a little better place to speak, but TOR-Es need to be a full ops decision to go with one. I'm hoping it's not 1 person just deciding to do it. Assuming Little Rock (or whichever office issued the warning) is correctly staffed for severe weather (at least 3 most likely 4 if not 5) there should have been 4 pairs of eyes looking at the storm and then a unanimous 4 yeses that agreed that it warranted a TOR-E. TOR-Es should be almost as rare as violent tors imo. The message is basically seek shelter or you will die. We can't let that be desensitized.

Initially it was Little Rock but then it moved into NWS Memphis territory and they went straight to a tornado emergency on their first tornado warning issuance. Surveys will be very interesting to say the least.

[Ingyball]

4 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

The problem is this thing was a TOR-E for almost an hour and pretty much all the damage reports could have been done by hail or straight line winds. Theres always a chance the person who reported a wedge could have been looking at a scud cloud. Normally if a storm is TOR-E for that long there's multiple reports of intense damage along the whole path, think of storms like central AL last year (3/25) or Mayfield. Theres absolutely none of that here. 

I'm not saying there wasn't a tornado and I think there was, as a few pictures on twitter seemed to appear like a weak tornado may have been on the ground, but I don't agree with the TOR-E, unless there's more damage reports that come out later, but I doubt it. 

This why it's so important to get to know your best spotters and know where they're at. We have a few here who I highly trust (one just got an award from us) who I would have the the public forecaster call before going Tor-e to see what they're seeing. 

 

 

Edit: Usually they're the first to call us though.

Edited April 16, 2022 by Ingyball

[ClicheVortex2014]

6 minutes ago, Chinook said:

some 3-D sections of this storm at different places

 

Really was a ridiculous hail producer. If you were caught in the hail core of that supercell, you're either dead, your car is totaled, or your house is heavily damaged. Or all 3. Or the latter two. Or a combination of any of the 3.

Edited April 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Really was a ridiculous hail producer. If you were caught in the hail core of that supercell, you're either dead, your car is totaled, or your house is heavily damaged. Or all 3. Or the latter two. Or a combination of any of the 3.

One of the Record breaking Hailstones in Hondo, TX in April 2021 literally tore a complete hole in the Roof & Ceiling, one of the stones was a state record 6.4 inches.

[snowlover2]

Quote

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
925 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     HAIL             LAKE CITY               35.82N 90.45W
04/15/2022  M4.00 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM LAKE
            CITY. FIRE SERVICE VEHICLE DAMAGED BY
            SOFTBALL SIZED HAIL.

 

 

[Iceresistance]

I do want to mention that the storm was in a bad radar hole, which made it extremely difficult to radar to see if there's a tornado or not.

This is why we need more radar stations to fill in the holes.

[Ingyball]

Apparently one of those photos going around was taken out of context according to a reply

[Ingyball]

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

oof

 

[Ingyball]

10 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

oof

 

Yeah whether there as a strong tornado or not, the storm was dangerous in itself

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Sounds like this is a NWS Meteorologist. Lots of good points about the tornado emergency.

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

There was indeed a tornado confirmed near Jonesboro, I've found this from a different forum.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Anvils are getting bullied today

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Anvils are getting bullied today

Unfavorable Directional Wind Shear

[Bman10]

I’ll leave this here. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

16 minutes ago, Bman10 said:

I’ll leave this here. 

Makes this a little awkward

Edited April 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Bman10]

12 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Makes this a little awkward

Just a tad…. Think all parties can learn from this. Can’t necessarily blame NWS. 

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, Bman10 said:

Just a tad…. Think all parties can learn from this. Can’t necessarily blame NWS. 

That storm was uniquely powerful, & extremely destructive, similar in terms of unexpectedness like the April 2020 Norman Hail/Windstorm.

 

There may have been a tornado in Northern Arkansas, but the extreme wind & hail has completely erased it's evidence.