Moderators Hiramite Posted April 16, 2022 Moderators Share Posted April 16, 2022 As of the latest runs 4/16 AM, every long and mid-range model has some accumulating snow over portions of N OH. NWS not too enthused yet. I'm ok with one more "whitening". If its gonna be 30-40's and wet, might as well snow. But come May 1st, I'm ready for sustained average temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted April 16, 2022 Admin Share Posted April 16, 2022 2 hours ago, Hiramite said: As of the latest runs 4/16 AM, every long and mid-range model has some accumulating snow over portions of N OH. NWS not too enthused yet. I'm ok with one more "whitening". If its gonna be 30-40's and wet, might as well snow. But come May 1st, I'm ready for sustained average temps. Been having a good run for the first half of April here, especially considering this *should* be mud season. Mosquitos were out yesterday however.. This is going to be so close here according to the GFS. ECMWF and NAM might be a hair to amped too early at this time. All about the strength and track of the coastal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted April 16, 2022 Admin Share Posted April 16, 2022 Might not even be totally sampled for today's 12z runs. Hopefully they get GOES-T operating soon. The current GOES west satellite is struggling with the infrared bands. You can barely see the energies on GOES east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 1st mowing of the season is in. Garden also with an initial tilling. 12z NAM. 3-6" Monday evening in Central PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 Wouldn’t be spring in northeast Ohio without all the yard stuff down followed by a quick evening 2-3 inch snow storm in mid April never fails cold to warm in an instant had been the trend for 5 plus years no just stretch of upper 50s to low 60s. Just 30s and 40s with a few warmer days mixed in to 80 in a blink had done it the last almost decade it seems since there warm 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 16, 2022 Moderators Share Posted April 16, 2022 Ick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 16, 2022 Moderators Share Posted April 16, 2022 NAM stands out, with NBM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 Nice jump in EPS for Central PA on 12z. Op seems to be in alignment, maybe a touch on the higher end, but not an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 New England crusher on 18z. Lots of jumpiness in NAM on surface results at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted April 17, 2022 Admin Share Posted April 17, 2022 2 hours ago, JDClapper said: New England crusher on 18z. Lots of jumpiness in NAM on surface results at least. Pretty sizable jump SE with that Cape cod canal track in the NAM. I'm thinking the pieces are fully onshore now, hoping the 0z can push some of the models to the coast, a lot of models track the low directly over my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: Pretty sizable jump SE with that Cape cod canal track in the NAM. I'm thinking the pieces are fully onshore now, hoping the 0z can push some of the models to the coast, a lot of models track the low directly over my house. Locals here going with a climatology-like forecast. Mix no accum valley, 1-4" in elevations with some random sweet spots of 6". 21z SREF was siiiick for IPT though. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted April 17, 2022 Admin Share Posted April 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Locals here going with a climatology-like forecast. Mix no accum valley, 1-4" in elevations with some random sweet spots of 6". 21z SREF was siiiick for IPT though. Lol SREFs must be amped, pretty low SN chances up here. I am a bit more inland and have a little elevation on LEW, but putting lipstick on a pig here. Last 6 NAM, looks like 0z is gonna be amped and "phased" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 26 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Locals here going with a climatology-like forecast. Mix no accum valley, 1-4" in elevations with some random sweet spots of 6". 21z SREF was siiiick for IPT though. Lol 0z NAM is siiiiiick. Track and timing of day dont get no more perfect for this backyard. We'll see though. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted April 17, 2022 Admin Share Posted April 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 0z NAM is siiiiiick. Track and timing of day dont get no more perfect for this backyard. We'll see though. FV3 looks similar to the NAM, definitely ate it's wheaties this run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted April 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted April 17, 2022 Bad time of day for us "western" folks, but no complaints...happy to be able to watch it fall in April. CLE finally buying in and posting some snowmaps with generally 1-2" across a large portion of N OH. As with many things, high ground is good. MBY.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Some simulated radars this morning. NAM FV3 ARW HRRR 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted April 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted April 17, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted April 17, 2022 Admin Share Posted April 17, 2022 2 hours ago, TLChip said: Some simulated radars this morning. NAM FV3 ARW HRRR Gotta hang my hat on the FV3, and even that is grasping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 NAM is getting out of control. This is kuchera.. 10:1 is even more unbelievable. Seriously, it is literally unbelievable. If this happens, wow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 38 minutes ago, JDClapper said: NAM is getting out of control. This is kuchera.. 10:1 is even more unbelievable. Seriously, it is literally unbelievable. If this happens, wow. I just keep saying 80 next Sunday it’ll be cool to see and won’t matter in 4 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Hassaywx1223 said: I just keep saying 80 next Sunday it’ll be cool to see and won’t matter in 4 days lol Lol right.. maybe have to push some slush around Tueday morning and then thats all she wrote for this season. Barring a historic May snow 😮 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMirg Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 3 hours ago, JDClapper said: NAM is getting out of control. This is kuchera.. 10:1 is even more unbelievable. Seriously, it is literally unbelievable. If this happens, wow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Lol the NAM going hard 🔥 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 49 minutes ago, TLChip said: Lol the NAM going hard 🔥 I thought it was the carrot and the stick thing, but seems like most modelling moving towards these absurd snows from Central PA up into NY. RGEM not as hardcore here, more NEPA and northeast, but looking to be a doozy somewhere nearby here and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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