April 11-13, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak

[ElectricStorm]

48 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

All it takes is one to reverse that

Oh yeah for sure  

[Grace]

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=523375042478479&id=100044179642007

[ClicheVortex2014]

   Mesoscale Discussion 0447
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

   Areas affected...portions of southeast Oklahoma and extreme
   northeast Texas into western and central Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 111934Z - 112130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storm development is likely
   over the next few hours. Scattered damaging gusts, very large hail,
   and a few tornadoes are all likely, and a strong tornado or two is
   also possible. A Tornado Watch issuance will be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...An elongated 1006 mb surface low continues to meander
   east across northern Texas, with the triple point situated along the
   Red River near GLE, and a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone draped
   along a line roughly from ADM to FSM per latest surface
   observations. A deepening cumulus field has already become
   established across eastern OK into northeast TX and western AR. The
   approach of a modest 500 mb vort max over the Southern Plains
   combined with adequate diurnal heating should foster an increase in
   thunderstorm development near the triple point and along the
   quasi-stationary baroclinic zone over the next few hours. The last
   few deterministic HRRR and Warn-on-Forecast ensemble runs suggest
   that storms may become established as early as 20Z. 8.5 C/km
   mid-level lapse rates overspreading mid 60s F surface dewpoints are
   contributing to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, with MLCINH continuing to
   erode with time. 

   Modest veering/strengthening of the surface-700 mb flow yields
   modestly curved hodographs (via SRX and LZK VAD profilers), with
   supercell structures likely given the initial discrete storm mode
   expected. Damaging gusts and large hail may accompany any storm that
   can mature, and 2+ inch hail may also accompany the longer-lived
   robust supercells given the steep mid-level lapse rates. While the
   low-level jet continues to weaken and shift eastward towards the MS
   River, enough low-level directional shear should promote low-level
   rotation and tornado potential with the more persistent supercells.
   If supercells can remain discrete while propagating eastward into AR
   (closer to the low-level jet axis), a strong tornado or two may also
   occur. A Tornado Watch will be needed soon.

 

[Central Illinois]

This is near Springfield IL Wednesday!

[Iceresistance]

The NWS-Springfield Radar is dead, Lightning struck it & blew up some parts, that's why they're trying to get replacement parts. And when it's back online is unknown.

[Neoncyclone]

Quote

SEL7 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and central Arkansas East central and southeast Oklahoma Extreme northeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into this evening from southeast Oklahoma and extreme northeast Texas into western and central Arkansas. The storm environment favors a mix of discrete and clustered supercells capable of producing very large hail (near or larger than baseballs), damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes into early tonight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest of Poteau OK to 20 miles north northeast of Pine Bluff AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Interesting 

 

[Iceresistance]

First Thunderstorm warning in the watch is in Eastern Oklahoma, heading towards Fort Smith, AR

[ClicheVortex2014]

My parents are in or near Ozark, AR. I just told them they need to start thinking about somewhere safe to go. That said, I do have hope because it looks like the motion is gonna keep it to their south

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

My parents are in or near Ozark, AR. I just told them they need to start thinking about somewhere safe to go. That said, I do have hope because it looks like the motion is gonna keep it to their south

Already has Tennis Ball Sized Hail, goodness.

[StormfanaticInd]

It begins...

[Iceresistance]

There's another storm WNW of Prescott, AR that is Severe

[Iceresistance]

The Ft. Smith Supercell now has the "Strong Low Level Rotation" wording for the Tornado Warning.

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The Ft. Smith Supercell now has the "Strong Low Level Rotation" wording for the Tornado Warning.

Upgraded to "severe thunderstorm with strong low level rotation that could produce a tornado at any time"

 

It's going right over Fort Smith

[ClicheVortex2014]

Looks like the supercell is splitting. Probably good news for my parents because this might force the dominant cell to be a right-mover.

[Iceresistance]

Tennis Ball sized hail confirmed in Fort Smith

[ClicheVortex2014]

21 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Looks like the supercell is splitting. Probably good news for my parents because this might force the dominant cell to be a right-mover.

My parents are actually south of Russellville today. About 70 miles east-southeast of the supercell which is moving at 30 mph. Plenty of time for this to go one way or the other

Edited April 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

Man once this supercell gets past the radar we're going to see some classic supercell structure

 

[Ingyball]

Gonna rant a little bit here. 

 

Don't like that SPC took the 10% tor out of E-Kansas with the 2nd day 2. Felt a bit reactionary to me with only a 1.5 model cycle difference between the first day 2 outlook. These conditional events is where I feel we need to improve the most. None of the parameters changed, if a storm breaks the cap it's likely going to go severe very quickly with very large hail and yes, tornadoes. Confidence is low that storms actually form, but if they do you're talking about a situation that's probably closer to a moderate threat. However, SPC can only go with a slight risk for tornadoes due to their confidence and it downplays the actual threat. 

 

I still have a feeling we could see the cap break up here (especially in Topeka's area). NAM has a weak cap near Wichita at 0z and with the dryline just west that would likely be enough to break the cap and get storms going. 

 

 

3K NAM sounding for nearby, again not much capping. (3K NAM is further west with the dryline)

HRRR sounding for Topeka, a little dry, but not bad. They'll be further away from the dryline, but closer to the low. Directional shear isn't quite as good, but still plenty.

 

CAMs look uncapped on soundings as well. Think main limiting factor with them is a more unfavorable storm motion. Also CAMs get all screwed up with the EL so it it's better to go with 6km shear than effective shear with them. 

[Neoncyclone]

large wall-cloud with rapid motion on Reeds stream with that supercell and it cleared the radar and the storm structure is on point

[Ingyball]

21z GFS soundings near Wichita and Topeka. In this case I would say storm growth would struggle early on in southern Kansas, 34kt effective shear is fairly marginal. 

 

By 0z there's better support further south, would be lightly capped, but wouldn't take much with the dryline just west. 

For Topkea

 

Model precip maps aren't showing anything right now, but part of me wonders if we put in a bit too much faith in them. I've been burned a few times both ways by just looking at that (before I was a forecaster thankfully). I'm sort of interested to see how they perform in that regard assuming these modeled soundings are actually correct and we don't see a monster cap on Topeka's upper air sounding at 0z. 

[Neoncyclone]

Tornado on the ground on Reed's stream or at least trying really hard, probably get a confirmed warning out of it.

Very brief touchdown

Edited April 11, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[ClicheVortex2014]

Nasty supercell

[Neoncyclone]

Here's a screen cap from Reed's stream, it looks like it's about to drop.

 

[Iceresistance]

5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Nasty supercell

I do believe that the splitting weakened it somewhat, but it's going to get even stronger & bigger hail once again.