April 11-13, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak

[StormfanaticInd]

 

 

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely across a large portion of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Southeast on Wednesday. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible. Strong tornadoes may occur. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low will continue to eject eastward from the Plains across much of the MS Valley, Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday. A surface low is likewise expected to advance generally eastward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward Wednesday across much of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast as well. ...Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Southeast... A substantial severe threat is evident for a large part of these regions ahead of the cold front. Pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the negatively tilted upper trough will likely overspread the warm sector through the day. 60s surface dewpoints will be present ahead of the front, with greater low-level moisture likely in place from the lower OH Valley/Mid-South into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Diurnal heating of this airmass and the continued presence of steepened lapse rates aloft should allow for moderate to strong instability to develop by Wednesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear generally in excess of 45-50 kt will support organized severe thunderstorms, and low-level shear is also forecast to be quite strong. Pre-frontal convection appears possible across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley vicinity through the day. If this occurs, then supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, would be likely. Linear convection is also expected to develop along much of the length of the front, and this activity will pose a threat for both damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes as it spreads eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening. Have opted to include a broad Enhanced Risk to account for numerous to potentially widespread damaging winds, and several tornadoes. The main uncertainty precluding greater severe probabilities at this time is the possible effect of early-day convection across the lower MS Valley/Mid-South on prospects for substantial destabilization later in the afternoon. Given the strong flow and sufficient instability forecast, at least an isolated severe threat should continue with eastward extent across the OH Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast Wednesday night.

[Central Illinois]

[snowlover2]

ILN thoughts for Wednesday.

Quote

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Confidence remains high in an active pattern evolution for the
middle of the workweek as the overall flow amplifies, with a
deep trough over the central plains and ridging centered toward
the Carolinas. After stalling/washing out on Tuesday, what is
left of any broad/ill-defined baroclinic zone will move rapidly
N of the OH Vly by Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Deep-
layer SSW flow will become established during this time period,
with am embedded S/W expected to move through the western OH/TN
Vlys Wednesday morning into the afternoon. This will initiate
another round of SHRA, with some embedded TS, during the daytime
on Wednesday, especially across far western parts of the ILN
FA. There is the chance that this initial round of activity
stays far enough west that parts of central/south-central OH and
NE KY stay mainly dry through perhaps most of the daytime on
Wednesday. Still enough uncertainty in the longitudinal
placement of this feature, so kept chance PoPs even in these ern
locations. Additional updates as we near the event will be able
to further hone in on the placement/corridor of the SHRA/TSRA
Wednesday morning/afternoon.

By Wednesday evening, attention will quickly turn to our west
where there is the expectation for widespread/deep convection
initiating off a strong eastward-moving frontal boundary. That
well-defined front will move into the local area Wednesday
night, attached to a surface low that will likely be occluding
as it moves into the Upper Midwest Wednesday night. There are
still some subtle timing differences with regards to the frontal
passage, but the main impacts locally seem likely to occur in
the Wednesday night and very early Thursday morning time frame.

Depending on frontal timing and the degree of moisture
advection N into the ILN FA late Wednesday evening, some threat
of strong to severe storms could exist. This being said, it
seems very possible, at least given the current trends in timing
and overall evolution of a favorable (or not-so-favorable)
parameter space, that the convection that moves into the ILN FA
Wednesday night will do so in a weakening manner. How quickly
this is to occur is highly dependent on the degree of
destabilization in the environment out ahead of the storms.
Current data suggests that a narrow ribbon of sfc-based instby
will extend N into the OH Vly into late Wednesday evening and
early into the overnight before pinching off toward/beyond 06z
as the system becomes even more occluded and as the convection
continues to race E. It does, at this juncture, appear that the
best pooling of LL moisture/instby will occur to the W of the
immediate area during the evening before shifting E and
decreasing in availability further into the ILN FA Wednesday
night. But the deep- layer shear on the order of ~50kts is
impressive and the angular orientation discrepancy between the
initiating/source boundary and the LL bulk shear vector will
support organized linear convection in the form of a QLCS. Like
many systems so far this spring, the degree of instby will
likely be the primary limiting factor. But if enough instby
pools ahead of the convection as it enters the ILN FA Wednesday
night, the severe threat will persist well into the nighttime
period with plenty of lift and deep-layer shear to keep the
momentum going, with damaging winds being the primary threat.
And although it seems probable that the severe threat should
wane with eastward extent later in the night, will begin
highlighting severe threat in the HWO in a broad-brushed manner
covering the entire local area until the specifics come into
better focus in the coming day or two.

It should also be noted that gusty winds are likely with this
system, in the warm sector on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
possibly with the frontal passage, and then with the WSW flow
behind the front on Thursday. Will keep this all in the 25-30 kt
range for now, but could see some potential for slightly higher
gusts than that should the mixing become more optimal at any
point during this time frame.

Despite the frequency of pcpn and expectation for fairly
widespread cloud cover for the majority of Tuesday through
Wednesday, above normal temps are expected area-wide before
temps trend close to normal for the end of the week following
the FROPA early Thursday. Conditions will also trend quieter
during this time as well before potentially a reintroduction of
pcpn chances occurs into next weekend.

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

The parameters on the nam for Wednesday are pretty scary imo

[Grace]

12z HRRR is kind of concerning for Arkansas this afternoon. 👀

 

[Iceresistance]

Triple Trouble Enhanced Risks starting today

[StormfanaticInd]

10 minutes ago, Grace said:

12z HRRR is kind of concerning for Arkansas this afternoon. 👀

 

😬

[Neoncyclone]

AR still has a lot of discrete convection, luckily shear isn't crazy so tornado threat shouldn't be the biggest concern, we could definitely still see a couple with all of this discrete supercellular action though. 

[Iceresistance]

STP is over a 10 in a PDS sounding in SW Nebraska, the Supercell Composite is at a 19 there.

[ElectricStorm]

Looking at HRRR I think there's going to be a moderate risk in IA tomorrow. Definitely a lot of potential up there. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Sounding for Indianapolis/me for Wednesday late afternoon 😬

Edited April 11, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[Iceresistance]

There was a Thunderstorm warning today for Indy because 60 mph wind gusts have been recorded.

[StormfanaticInd]

2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

There was a Thunderstorm warning today for Indy because 60 mph wind gusts have been recorded.

Yep. Was a decent storm. Totally did not expect that. 

[Iceresistance]

The HRRR has supercell storms blowing up in SE Oklahoma, but it's in a really bad radar hole (AKA, the SE Oklahoma Radar Hole)

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Iceresistance

[ElectricStorm]

They added a hatched area for tornadoes. Dangerous day ahead

[NebraskaEgg]

11 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Big 10% hatched tornado for day 2. Wise move for now. They do mention potential for 'greater tornado probabilities' if there's enough confidence in storms popping in a specific area.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0100 AM CDT MON APR 11 2022  
  
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL,  
DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES SHOULD OCCUR BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A BROAD  
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
SOME OF THE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ADVANCE  
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY, REACHING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A LOW-AMPLITUDE, SOUTHERN-STREAM  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO  
GRANDE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN  
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE LOWER  
MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.  
  
A DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN CO AND THE WESTERN NE  
PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD  
ACROSS NE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LOW SHOULD THEN FURTHER DEVELOP  
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT.  
A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHARPEN THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND  
PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A STRONG CAP  
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION  
ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  
   
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING  
  
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS  
EASTWARD, A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL USHER RAPID  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL  
PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES  
THAT AT LEAST LOW TO MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE TO  
THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THESE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE  
PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML  
WILL LIKELY FOSTER MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG/EAST OF THE  
DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL TX TO EAST-CENTRAL KS.  
MLCAPE OF 2500-4000+ J/KG APPEARS PROBABLE BY PEAK AFTERNOON  
HEATING. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY  
INCREASE DURING THE DAY, AND AROUND 35-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR  
SHOULD BE PRESENT ALONG MUCH OF THE DRYLINE BY LATE TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS, INCLUDING  
SUPERCELLS.  
  
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW MANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE  
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EARLY EVENING, AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT PRECEDING THE UPPER  
TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST. LINGERING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION  
MAY ALSO HINDER COVERAGE TO SOME EXTENT. EVEN WITH THESE  
UNCERTAINTIES, IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL TX  
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN  
DEVELOP IN THIS VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY  
BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY. GIVEN THE LARGE RESERVOIR OF BUOYANCY  
AVAILABLE, SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL (2+  
INCHES), ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH  
THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN  
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION, AND A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT PERSIST WILL BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL  
SHEAR THAT IS FORECAST, A STRONG TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE.  
  
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY  
EVENING/NIGHT...  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW  
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO FAR EASTERN NE AND  
MUCH OF IA/MO BY TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY ONLY REACH  
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO IA. EVEN  
WITH THIS SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED MOISTURE, STRONGER ASCENT/LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY AID THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT BY TUESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN CONVECTION  
FORMING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NE INTO IA IN THIS TIME FRAME.  
  
A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO  
50-60+ KT AROUND 00-03Z. BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEAR  
VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN REMAIN  
DISCRETE WILL POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  
EFFECTIVE SRH POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 400 M2/S2 ACROSS IA TUESDAY  
EVENING AND THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGEST A THREAT FOR A  
COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. HAVE EXPANDED THE ENHANCED RISK  
NORTHWARD INTO MORE OF IA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG TORNADO  
POTENTIAL. GREATER TORNADO PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS  
AREA IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP.  
OTHERWISE, A LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD  
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS AND  
TORNADOES AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MO INTO  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR NORTH OF  
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
  
...TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING...  
AS THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE TX COASTAL  
PLAIN TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
UPPER TX COAST/EAST TX INTO LA. DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL  
AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE GENERALLY  
RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 40-50 KT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT UPDRAFT  
ORGANIZATION, AND A MIX OF MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP.  
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING  
WINDS, AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES AS THEY SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
   
..ARKLATEX INTO THE OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT  
  
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT OVER  
PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX, OZARKS, AND PERHAPS THE MID-SOUTH. A 50+ KT  
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THESE  
REGIONS IN THIS TIME FRAME, AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD  
SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS.  
ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN PERSIST OR FORM IN THIS REGIME WOULD POSE A  
THREAT FOR TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL, AS LOW-LEVEL  
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  

 

 

On 4/7/2022 at 1:33 PM, NebraskaEgg said:

I'm spending the next five months in Alaska starting on the 29th so I'm hoping one of these severe weather days in April pays a visit to Nebraska... didn't get much from the last one and unfortunately April isn't exactly peak severe weather season up here, but I hope I'll get to see at least one before I leave.

 

If not, can always watch the show the south likes to provide from afar. Off to a crazy year already.

Seems I may get my wish, though I'm not sure if the highest risk is farther into Iowa or not. Any thoughts you might be able to provide on the risk area in the northern part of tomorrow's outlook?

[ElectricStorm]

Welp

[StormfanaticInd]

13 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Welp

You called it. Well done. I wonder if they are expecting storms to form along the warm front around the Ohio River. Hmmm

Edited April 11, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[NebraskaEgg]

Very excited for tomorrow, might be the only other severe risk I see this year so I hope it gives us a show!

[Iceresistance]

23 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Welp

There's simply too much uncertainty if the storms do indeed blow up

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I'm very bullish on the current 10 hatched area for tomorrow. Honestly could be similar to 3/5, with several strong/intense tornadoes possible, maybe even likely.

For us down here, I'm pretty bearish. Partial cap bust likely, will probably see a couple supercells but not anything too crazy. Wouldn't be surprised to see the 30 hatched hail area removed tomorrow. That's been the name of the game with these setups here over the last decade. Looks good until a couple days before and then flops, which to be honest I'm not even surprised since it's happened so much. Probably won't be getting better anytime soon with the massive drought out west... This is probably the least excited I've been for an enhanced risk in my area in... maybe ever lol

For Wednesday I'm also bullish, but it's still a bit up in the air at this point so we'll see. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[Iceresistance]

34 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Yeah I'm very bullish on the current 10 hatched area for tomorrow. Honestly could be similar to 3/5, with several strong/intense tornadoes possible, maybe even likely.

For us down here, I'm pretty bearish. Partial cap bust likely, will probably see a couple supercells but not anything too crazy. Wouldn't be surprised to see the 30 hatched hail area removed tomorrow. That's been the name of the game with these setups here over the last decade. Looks good until a couple days before and then flops, which to be honest I'm not even surprised since it's happened so much. Probably won't be getting better anytime soon with the massive drought out west... This is probably the least excited I've been for an enhanced risk in my area in... maybe ever lol

For Wednesday I'm also bullish, but it's still a bit up in the air at this point so we'll see. 

All it takes is one to reverse that

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 hour ago, NebraskaEgg said:

 

Seems I may get my wish, though I'm not sure if the highest risk is farther into Iowa or not. Any thoughts you might be able to provide on the risk area in the northern part of tomorrow's outlook?

Seems E NE will get a rapidly forming squall. Won't be surprised if it quickly goes severe given the strength of the system.

--

My parents are in the 10% hatched for today. My mom lived through 1974 Xenia... she says she saw the tornado and helped with the aftermath... so she's still kinda scarred to this day. I guess they've got a plan ready if needed. I'm not particularly concerned about their area because it looks like they'll get the early stages of the cells. If they were more into central AR it'd be different.

Edited April 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

With this kind of look in the Pacific I don't think its a coincidence that we are this active 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

18z HRRR has a really, really intense supercells north of Little Rock