April 11-13, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak

[Neoncyclone]

Monday night could be pretty bad for AR seeing a lot of discrete activity.

0z Hrrr

[Iceresistance]

The HRRR does show some Supercells in Northern Texas on Tuesday

[ClicheVortex2014]

17 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Monday night could be pretty bad for AR seeing a lot of discrete activity.

0z Hrrr

My parents are in that area. All they've got with them is a truck and camper. Hopefully they can find shelter for at least the truck. I'm more worried about the hail threat than the tornado threat for them. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

@ClicheVortex2014Southern Oklahoma has developing Supercells at the end of the run, also shows a Weakening Cap, but the storms did not go in most of Oklahoma & all of Kansas.

Also, the 21z RAP does have stuff trying to go up in Kansas, also with a weaker cap as well, but only the soundings on the day of it will tell us if we're going to get big storms, or a big bust by the Cap

Edited April 11, 2022 by Iceresistance

[ClicheVortex2014]

NAM still doesn't develop anything until past 0z. The storms would be elevated by then.

Looks like anything that develops north of OKC should be pushed generally northeast which leaves the mid-MS valley, and maybe the lower OV, clear. 

I'm starting to really buy into Wednesday. Especially if that pre-frontal band develops.

 

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

Also this is very long range HRRR so expect many changes but it is regardless interesting to see a complete shift of the highest threat area all the way up to Iowa where you can definitely see some convection. 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

NAM doesn't really have the pre-frontal action like the 18z run, but the mid-MS valley does get slammed with discrete/semi-discrete cells.

Again, I'm starting to buy into Wednesday... as long as convection doesn't verify in central/southern OK. That would muddy things.

 

[Iceresistance]

Thunderstorm watch in effect for Northern & NE Oklahoma, SE Kansas, & SW Missouri

Edited April 11, 2022 by Iceresistance

[ClicheVortex2014]

GFS is really ramping up Wednesday. Not nearly as flashy as Tuesday but there's no concerns about capping and there's potential for warm sector convection.

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Well this would have been a fun night to be home. Oof 

[ElectricStorm]

Couple things for the next few days:

Tomorrow looks really dangerous for AR. Will probably see an enhanced risk for hail and maybe tornadoes at some point. 

I'm very interested to see what SPC does for Tues. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if they downgraded the southern half of the enhanced risk to a slight since it looks like storm formation will be pretty isolated, if they do form at all. 

Wednesday looks big, will probably be a moderate risk day, although not on this coming outlook. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

9 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Well this would have been a fun night to be home. Oof 

Right entrance region of a negative tilt is doing work. Lucky for the Upper Midwest that this isn't June.

[ElectricStorm]

13 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Couple things for the next few days:

Tomorrow looks really dangerous for AR. Will probably see an enhanced risk for hail and maybe tornadoes at some point. 

I'm very interested to see what SPC does for Tues. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if they downgraded the southern half of the enhanced risk to a slight since it looks like storm formation will be pretty isolated, if they do form at all. 

Wednesday looks big, will probably be a moderate risk day, although not on this coming outlook. 

I'm actually gonna take that part back I think I'm getting a bit too pessimistic after the last couple years... 

[Iceresistance]

Southern End of the line has a hook, there's a relatively weak couplet with that one for now.

[Iceresistance]

ODOT Cameras in Tulsa to see the storms

https://oktraffic.org/#/map?lat=36.1604626914911&lon=-96.00260532226562&origin=click&rand=1649654428460

[ClicheVortex2014]

6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Southern End of the line has a hook, there's a relatively weak couplet with that one for now.

Gust front is out ahead of the storms so there's no tornado threat there

Edited April 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Gust front is out ahead of the storms so there's no tornado threat there

It can spin all it wants to, but it can't produce a tornado because it's undercut by the North winds

[ClicheVortex2014]

17 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It can spin all it wants to, but it can't produce a tornado because it's undercut by the North winds

It's more about the fact that the temps drop off so much behind gust front that there's now an inversion just above the surface due to the sudden appearance of rain-cooled air at the surface. That makes it impossible for tornadoes to form, whereas a shallow change in near-surface winds makes it unlikely.

You've got the right idea though because it's similar to how there's no tornado threat once a cell gets undercut by a surging cold front. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Enhanced risk for tornadoes and hail introduced for day 1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1259 AM CDT MON APR 11 2022  
  
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO  
MONDAY NIGHT FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MID-SOUTH AND  
VICINITY, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF ARKANSAS.  
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL  
APPEAR POSSIBLE.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO EASTERN CANADA TODAY, AS A LONGWAVE  
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A  
WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE OZARK  
PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION OF  
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING CYCLONE NEAR  
THE CO FRONT RANGE.   
   
..ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK  
MID  
SOUTH...AND OH VALLEY...  
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS  
PARTS OF NORTHERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A  
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED SURFACE BOUNDARY. MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG  
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40+ KT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL  
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY ELEVATED CLUSTERS THROUGH THE  
MORNING. ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN TN  
AND LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF  
ISOLATED WIND/HAIL.   
  
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY LATE  
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE FROM EASTERN OK INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN AR. THE  
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, DUE TO GENERALLY SUBTLE  
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL  
BECOME CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS, AS MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE  
THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING  
WITHIN A MODEST WARM-ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS WESTERN INTO NORTHERN  
AR, AND POTENTIALLY INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST TX. LOCALLY  
BACKED FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT,  
IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF HAIL (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) AND  
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.    
   
..PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH TX  
  
A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE IN  
PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX  
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION REMAINS HIGHLY  
UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO BE  
NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD INITIATION OCCUR, A CONDITIONAL  
RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE  
PRESENT WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL.  

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Big 10% hatched tornado for day 2. Wise move for now. They do mention potential for 'greater tornado probabilities' if there's enough confidence in storms popping in a specific area.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0100 AM CDT MON APR 11 2022  
  
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL,  
DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES SHOULD OCCUR BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A BROAD  
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
SOME OF THE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ADVANCE  
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY, REACHING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A LOW-AMPLITUDE, SOUTHERN-STREAM  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO  
GRANDE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN  
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE LOWER  
MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.  
  
A DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN CO AND THE WESTERN NE  
PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD  
ACROSS NE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LOW SHOULD THEN FURTHER DEVELOP  
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT.  
A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHARPEN THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND  
PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A STRONG CAP  
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION  
ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  
   
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING  
  
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS  
EASTWARD, A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL USHER RAPID  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL  
PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES  
THAT AT LEAST LOW TO MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE TO  
THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THESE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE  
PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML  
WILL LIKELY FOSTER MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG/EAST OF THE  
DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL TX TO EAST-CENTRAL KS.  
MLCAPE OF 2500-4000+ J/KG APPEARS PROBABLE BY PEAK AFTERNOON  
HEATING. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY  
INCREASE DURING THE DAY, AND AROUND 35-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR  
SHOULD BE PRESENT ALONG MUCH OF THE DRYLINE BY LATE TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS, INCLUDING  
SUPERCELLS.  
  
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW MANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE  
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EARLY EVENING, AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT PRECEDING THE UPPER  
TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST. LINGERING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION  
MAY ALSO HINDER COVERAGE TO SOME EXTENT. EVEN WITH THESE  
UNCERTAINTIES, IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL TX  
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN  
DEVELOP IN THIS VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY  
BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY. GIVEN THE LARGE RESERVOIR OF BUOYANCY  
AVAILABLE, SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL (2+  
INCHES), ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH  
THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN  
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION, AND A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT PERSIST WILL BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL  
SHEAR THAT IS FORECAST, A STRONG TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE.  
  
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY  
EVENING/NIGHT...  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW  
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO FAR EASTERN NE AND  
MUCH OF IA/MO BY TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY ONLY REACH  
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO IA. EVEN  
WITH THIS SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED MOISTURE, STRONGER ASCENT/LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY AID THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT BY TUESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN CONVECTION  
FORMING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NE INTO IA IN THIS TIME FRAME.  
  
A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO  
50-60+ KT AROUND 00-03Z. BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEAR  
VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN REMAIN  
DISCRETE WILL POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  
EFFECTIVE SRH POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 400 M2/S2 ACROSS IA TUESDAY  
EVENING AND THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGEST A THREAT FOR A  
COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. HAVE EXPANDED THE ENHANCED RISK  
NORTHWARD INTO MORE OF IA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG TORNADO  
POTENTIAL. GREATER TORNADO PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS  
AREA IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP.  
OTHERWISE, A LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD  
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS AND  
TORNADOES AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MO INTO  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR NORTH OF  
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
  
...TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING...  
AS THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE TX COASTAL  
PLAIN TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
UPPER TX COAST/EAST TX INTO LA. DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL  
AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE GENERALLY  
RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 40-50 KT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT UPDRAFT  
ORGANIZATION, AND A MIX OF MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP.  
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING  
WINDS, AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES AS THEY SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
   
..ARKLATEX INTO THE OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT  
  
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT OVER  
PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX, OZARKS, AND PERHAPS THE MID-SOUTH. A 50+ KT  
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THESE  
REGIONS IN THIS TIME FRAME, AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD  
SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS.  
ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN PERSIST OR FORM IN THIS REGIME WOULD POSE A  
THREAT FOR TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL, AS LOW-LEVEL  
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Good thing I took it back 😂

[ClicheVortex2014]

Hour and a half until the new day 3. I might be up for it.

[Iceresistance]

Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Hour and a half until the new day 3. I might be up for it.

I'm going to say either a very broad Enhanced risk, or a rare D3 Moderate for the Southern Mississippi River Valley (Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, & Tennessee)

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Good thing I took it back 😂

I knew that was coming, the CAPE values on the models is over 4000 in Northern Oklahoma

 

Storm Shelter is ready to go.

[ElectricStorm]

SPC already mentioning higher tor probs possible for the northern part of the 10 hatched. If models start showing supercells in OK/KS, we could see an upgrade there too. 

Someone's probably getting a moderate risk Tuesday and probably Wednesday too