Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: This is very concerning, apparently he's usually realistic & pragmatic (What is that?), & this is one of the strongest wordings ever seen from him, also has scary analogs that are very similar to this. Good point about height/pressure falls (assuming it's true)... I believe that's associated with forcing. He lost me after the mention of 5/3/99 though. Like, come on. That's one of the dozen events that you can't/shouldn't compare an upcoming event to 99% of the time. Edited April 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 10, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: This is very concerning, apparently he's usually realistic & pragmatic (What is that?), & this is one of the strongest wordings ever seen from him, also has scary analogs that are very similar to this. Nope sorry, this is the Mike Smith that I know of, I wouldn't trust this. Not to say that it couldn't happen, but yeah I wouldn't consider him trustworthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Just now, Ingyball said: Nope sorry, this is the Mike Smith that I know of, I wouldn't trust this. Not to say that it couldn't happen, but yeah I wouldn't consider him trustworthy. I've never heard of him before, guess I'll try to dodge most of his sayings, Big Joe B did mention a nasty outbreak in the same timeframe as well on Wednesday. (Ironically, that was expected to happen this coming Wednesday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Nope sorry, this is the Mike Smith that I know of, I wouldn't trust this. Not to say that it couldn't happen, but yeah I wouldn't consider him trustworthy. I don't know much about him aside from his ability to double down on... well... himself. The dude has an ego as big as the 2013 El Reno tornado Edited April 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: This is very concerning, apparently he's usually realistic & pragmatic (What is that?), & this is one of the strongest wordings ever seen from him, also has scary analogs that are very similar to this. This guy's had some... questionable takes. A lot of them actually. Most of the stuff I've seen from him is not great so I wouldn't get too concerned about any of what he says here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: The dude has an ego as big as the 2013 El Reno tornado This made me laugh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) I'm having a hard time on finding good, & trusted Meteorologists that also include Tweets other than Big Joe B. Do Y'all have suggestions on who to find? I know that Panic Payne (David Payne) is not one of them Edited April 10, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I've never heard of him before, guess I'll try to dodge most of his sayings, Big Joe B did mention a nasty outbreak in the same timeframe as well on Wednesday. (Ironically, that was expected to happen this coming Wednesday) Speaking of egos 😂 I think JB is more arrogance though. I guess they're kinda intertwined. For me, personally, I'd rather see posts like Mike Smith's that you shared and... gulp... JB... because they can have a nugget of good info. Can get you thinking. I'm not about to search them out though, so props to you for doing it for me 3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: This made me laugh He mentioned Bridge Creek-Moore 1999 so it's only appropriate to throw another one out there 🤷♂️ Edited April 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 10, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I don't know much about him aside from his ability to double down on... well... himself. The dude has an ego as big as the 2013 El Reno tornado I don't want to go into too much detail, but there was one specific case this past Summer where we had two individual cells moving parallel together that made it look like a hook echo. Now if you did any sort of analysis you would see they were two independent updrafts, but he made a tweet wondering why it wasn't tor-warned. Just a taste of the kind of things he says and does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Just now, Ingyball said: I don't want to go into too much detail, but there was one specific case this past Summer where we had two individual cells moving parallel together that made it look like a hook echo. Now if you did any sort of analysis you would see they were two independent updrafts, but he made a tweet wondering why it wasn't tor-warned. Just a taste of the kind of things he says and does. Wasn't he the guy that was also trying to say 2 inch hail wasn't dangerous? I'm pretty sure it was him. And then when people called him out on it he just kept going... Huge yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Ingyball said: I don't want to go into too much detail, but there was one specific case this past Summer where we had two individual cells moving parallel together that made it look like a hook echo. Now if you did any sort of analysis you would see they were two independent updrafts, but he made a tweet wondering why it wasn't tor-warned. Just a taste of the kind of things he says and does. I always check velocity if that's the case on reflectivity. A legit Hook has a Velocity couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Just now, OKwx_2001 said: Wasn't he the guy that was also trying to say 2 inch hail wasn't dangerous? I'm pretty sure it was him. And then when people called him out on it he just kept going... Huge yikes Even Quarter sized hail can give you a good bruise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 10, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 10, 2022 However, I will say that Tuesday does look to be one of those days where it only takes 1 or 2 storms to break the cap to make it an event. With the surface low passing so close to the warm sector I do have my suspicions that there may be enough forcing to break the cap (specifically in Kansas) and we see a couple of intense supercells. I think the models may be struggling with that. Will be important for me to nail that down since I start forecast shift tomorrow night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ingyball said: However, I will say that Tuesday does look to be one of those days where it only takes 1 or 2 storms to break the cap to make it an event. With the surface low passing so close to the warm sector I do have my suspicions that there may be enough forcing to break the cap (specifically in Kansas) and we see a couple of intense supercells. I think the models may be struggling with that. Will be important for me to nail that down since I start forecast shift tomorrow night. Good luck! Definitely looks like it might be a pretty tough forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Wasn't he the guy that was also trying to say 2 inch hail wasn't dangerous? I'm pretty sure it was him. And then when people called him out on it he just kept going... Huge yikes Say you're from the Northeast without saying you're from the Northeast 😂 (I don't know where he's actually from and no shade intended personally to anyone from the Northeast reading this... it's just that you don't get much >2" hail) 14 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I'm having a hard time on finding good, & trusted Meteorologists that also include Tweets other than Big Joe B. Do Y'all have suggestions on who to find? I know that Panic Payne (David Payne) is not one of them I'm not too deep into Wxtwitter because there's always some stupid nonsense going on but I do have a couple good recommendations. They both do some good stuff with severe weather forecasting and nowcasting Sam Emmerson (@ou_sams)... he's a tornado guy, and, I believe, he's one of the pioneers for using Vrot and debris height to estimate tornado strength in realtime. At least he's the one that I learned about it from. Cameron Nixon (@CameronJNixon)... he does some crazy analysis with hodographs too Edited April 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I'm not too deep into Wxtwitter because there's always some stupid nonsense going on but I do have a couple good recommendations. Sam Emmerson (@ou_sams)... he's a tornado guy, and, I believe, he's one of the pioneers for using Vrot and debris height to estimate tornado strength in realtime. At least he's the one that I learned about it from. Cameron Nixon (@CameronJNixon)... the hodograph guy. He loves his hodographs. Big thanks, I've found this from Nixon already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 10, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Say you're from the Northeast without saying you're from the Northeast 😂 (I don't know where he's actually from and no shade intended personally to anyone from the Northeast reading this... it's just that you don't get much >2" hail) I'm not too deep into Wxtwitter because there's always some stupid nonsense going on but I do have a couple good recommendations. They both do some good stuff with severe weather forecasting and nowcasting Sam Emmerson (@ou_sams)... he's a tornado guy, and, I believe, he's one of the pioneers for using Vrot and debris height to estimate tornado strength in realtime. At least he's the one that I learned about it from. Cameron Nixon (@CameronJNixon)... he does some crazy analysis with hodographs too Cameron Nixon is amazing, he's been doing things with the NWS to help us forecasters use hodographs better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Big thanks, I've found this from Nixon already 11 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Cameron Nixon is amazing, he's been doing things with the NWS to help us forecasters use hodographs better. This thread was gold. Like, I felt really insecure after reading this haha Edited April 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) SREF probability for >6 STP. Nothing on significant tornado ingredients because I guess the ensembles aren't seeing precip. So if they start seeing precip, STI should increase steadily Edited April 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 10, 2022 HRRR has a bit of a rough Monday evening for central AR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Sneaky event here. Sometimes these can get interesting on the day of so we'll see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Sneaky event here. Sometimes these can get interesting on the day of so we'll see what happens Sneaky events can really surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: Sneaky events can really surprise Most intense severe event I've experienced was one of these. Went to bed to a marginal risk, woke up the next day to an enhanced. Then upgraded to moderate a few hours later. This time of year pretty much any day can get crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Really starting to pay attention to Wednesday especially if the European is correct imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Latest CIPS analogues are out for Tues and 4/26/91 is now #1. Now obviously this shouldn't be a repeat of that by any means but the fact that the overall setup is similar to that is concerning. Several other big days in here as well. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=GP&fhr=F072&rundt=2022041000&map=thbSVR I know I've already said this, but if any storm can break the cap, it will be explosive, with very large hail and tornado potential. We may not see a whole lot of storms, but it only takes one to make it a memorable event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now