Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 9, 2022 FWIW... sounding comparison at Wichita between GFS and NAM. Both models have pretty good agreement about the strength of the inversion. Other than that... the moist layer is much shallower on GFS... much deeper on NAM. Despite that, GFS has a dew point 6 degrees higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 (edited) Well the last couple GFS runs are starting to look interesting for Thursday now too... Welcome to spring, where pretty much any day can get interesting Edited April 9, 2022 by OKwx_2001 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 I have not looked at a lot of this before tonight. In my opinion, I don't like to post much about severe weather outbreaks beyond about 84 hours since the synoptic forecast is not always terribly accurate. I say this also partially because the NAM is somewhat helpful at 84 hours. Since this discussion is going, I'll post a super cool graphic. This is the GFS supercell composite with 500mb wind barb overlays. Tuesday night certainly has the most interesting SCP value but may not be the most severe day of the week, due to capping, and lots of details may change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 This system is giving me May vibes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Again impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 The GEFS now has pink Supercell Composite in Oklahoma, Kansas, & southern part of the Missouri River Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 @ClicheVortex2014Can you do the 0z Canadian soundings for Oklahoma, Kansas, & Missouri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 That front Sunday night into Monday might have some storms with it for the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Enhanced risk in place for D4 & D5, I'm under the Enhanced risk on D4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: @ClicheVortex2014Can you do the 0z Canadian soundings for Oklahoma, Kansas, & Missouri? I’m at work til 4… I’m able to pull up the soundings here but I’m not gonna log onto the forum while I’m here. I’ll share the latest Canadian when I get home… though I will say I don’t think many people put much stock in the model at least for severe weather purposes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 It's been a long time since I've been in a 30% area in the extended outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 The 12z NAM really showed itself in SW Oklahoma, CAPE just shy of 4000 & it's not capped very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 27 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The 12z NAM really showed itself in SW Oklahoma, CAPE just shy of 4000 & it's not capped very well. And it also has isolated development in Central Oklahoma Tomorrow afternoon, could be a sneaky event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 (edited) Goodness, the Supercell Composite on the 12z GFS is a 17 in Southern Kansas, it's really back at it again! Edited April 9, 2022 by Iceresistance Model name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 9, 2022 8 hours ago, Iceresistance said: @ClicheVortex2014Can you do the 0z Canadian soundings for Oklahoma, Kansas, & Missouri? As I suspected, Canadian can be thrown out. It's clearly the outlier with respect to moisture content among the other models. I clicked through a bunch of locations and they're all just relatively dry and/or capped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Pulled some soundings off the latest NAM run, N KS S KS N OK S OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 9, 2022 (edited) The above are for 03z... here's 0z when storms are most likely to be either kicking off or going S KS Centralish OK Topeka area Edited April 9, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 9, 2022 (edited) No storms develop on NAM through 06z except for near the low, and too late for the storms to be particularly dangerous. This would open the window wide open for Wednesday for S MO/AR. Edited April 9, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Seems like it's gonna be a pretty fine line between boom or bust on Tuesday. I'm honestly a little surprised the SPC put up the 30% area since most of the models are currently showing a cap bust. They must be pretty confident that it's going to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Seems like it's gonna be a pretty fine line between boom or bust on Tuesday. I'm honestly a little surprised the SPC put up the 30% area since most of the models are currently showing a cap bust. They must be pretty confident that it's going to break. It seems like that the models underestimate on the Cap Strength, they must be noticing that most of the Ensemble members (GEFS, ENS, & CMCE) are blowing up with storms across Oklahoma & Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 27 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: It seems like that the models underestimate on the Cap Strength, they must be noticing that most of the Ensemble members (GEFS, ENS, & CMCE) are blowing up with storms across Oklahoma & Kansas I trust the SPC way more than the models, so unless they change their outlooks I'm assuming we're going to see storms firing on the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: I trust the SPC way more than the models, so unless they change their outlooks I'm assuming we're going to see storms firing on the dryline. They might go with the Enhanced/Moderate with "The Cap could prevent any storm from develop". The Cap is notoriously difficult to forecast, with daytime heating usually weakening it more than expected. Edited April 9, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 9, 2022 (edited) CIPS analogs still mostly like the mid-MS valley/lower OV for Wednesday. Lately GFS has been showing a secondary severe weather area in the lower OV. Granted, this isn't a coincidence since these analogs are based on GFS... but Wednesday is one of those days where there may be two severe weather areas, with the lower OV pulling some surprises. W KY Edited April 9, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 This is very concerning, apparently he's usually realistic & pragmatic (What is that?), & this is one of the strongest wordings ever seen from him, also has scary analogs that are very similar to this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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