Neoncyclone Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Mesoscale Discussion 0476 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-Mississippi Valley. Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 131732Z - 131930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Rapid destabilization is expected across portions of the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley DISCUSSION...A stable airmass is currently in place across the lower Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley in the wake of a morning MCV. However, low-level moisture is expected to improve significantly over the next several hours. The leading edge of richer Gulf moisture can now be seen on visible satellite where the cu field is expanding north across Mississippi and western Alabama. Extrapolating northward movement of this better moisture and northeastward movement of ongoing thunderstorm activities, it appears better low-level moisture will arrive prior to the convective line east of the Mississippi River and possibly slightly west. Expect this better moisture to reach the Missouri bootheel around 19-20Z, southern Illinois 20-21Z and southern Indiana around 22Z. MLCAPE is expected to increase to the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range ahead of these storms which should be sufficiently unstable to not only support a significant severe weather threat with the squall line, but also potentially allow for some more discrete convection to develop ahead of the line. In addition, surface winds are expected to back across the warm sector as the upper-level trough advances northeastward. Therefore, significant elongation of the low-level hodographs is anticipated. Therefore, all severe weather hazards are expected this afternoon/evening including the potential for 75+ mph wind gusts and a couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the next 1 to 2 hours. Im on the very edge but the last of the mornings rain is clearing out and starting to get a bit of sun, the squall could come in stronger than modeled if i'm reading this right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 That warm front is starting to make some progress it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Instability building 👀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Is this going to be a bust in West Ky? I'm hopeful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Grace said: Is this going to be a bust in West Ky? I'm hopeful. Hard to tell right now. Warm sector activity is really getting off to a slow start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 30 minutes ago, Grace said: Is this going to be a bust in West Ky? I'm hopeful. I think it's getting ready to take off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Current hodos ahead of the storm, shear is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Rotation back in the squall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Tornado warnings starting to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 West ky does not even have a watch?? Anyone know why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, Grace said: West ky does not even have a watch?? Anyone know why? They just issued one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 124 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme southern Illinois Western Kentucky * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A squall line near the Mississippi River will likely continue moving northeastward into western Kentucky through the remainder of the afternoon. Damaging winds up to 75 mph with bowing segments will be the main threat, though a few tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations in the line. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Fort Campbell KY to 40 miles south southeast of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...WW 121...WW 122...WW 123... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: They just issued one. Seems irresponsible. They issue a watch within 30 minutes of event & it's going to be over in an hour???? If one needed to issued now then it needed to be an hour ago. EDIT: Disappointed in them dragging their feet. Edited April 13, 2022 by Grace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Grace said: Seems irresponsible. They issue a watch within 30 minutes of event & it's going to be over in an hour???? If one needed to issued now then it needed to be an hour ago. I don't think that they expected the conditions to be very favorable in Kentucky at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceciliaky Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I don't think that they expected the conditions to be very favorable in Kentucky at the moment. I'm not sure how they didn't - there was a mesoscale discussion 2 or 3 hours ago about issuing a watch in WKy. It wasn't until after the Fulton Co warning popped that they issued a very small watch box. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Grace said: Seems irresponsible. They issue a watch within 30 minutes of event & it's going to be over in an hour???? If one needed to issued now then it needed to be an hour ago. EDIT: Disappointed in them dragging their feet. 4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I don't think that they expected the conditions to be very favorable in Kentucky at the moment. NWS conservatism. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 We are finally getting some warnings but overall today was a huge bust. Not nearly as active as what was forecasted. It happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: We are finally getting some warnings but overall today was a huge bust. Not nearly as active as what was forecasted. It happens It's not even 4 yet lol I mean, I'm not saying it won't underperform but this isn't even close to over yet Not to mention there's several tor warnings right now Edited April 13, 2022 by OKwx_2001 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, ceciliaky said: I'm not sure how they didn't - there was a mesoscale discussion 2 or 3 hours ago about issuing a watch in WKy. It wasn't until after the Fulton Co warning popped that they issued a very small watch box. Exactly! After what West ky went through in December let's get off the conservative soap box & just issue the doggone watch! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 13, 2022 I think the South is gonna get the worst of this event again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: It's not even 4 yet lol I mean, I'm not saying it won't underperform but this isn't even close to over yet Not to mention there's several tor warnings right now 10- 15 percent significant tornado probilities forecasted for tornado and really nothing so far today. Honestly my area would have been good with a general thunderstorms outlook. Lol. I'm ranting lol Edited April 13, 2022 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 I'm under a tornado warning now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I think the South is gonna get the worst of this event again Not sure if you guys talk about it or not but the big difference between the west(plains?) and the south is the population density. There are towns every 10 miles all across the south. Out west there's sometimes hundreds of miles between towns. Yesterday no one got hurt. Same kind of storms in the deep south always kill people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Grace said: I'm under a tornado warning now Only moving at 70mph. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Paducah KY 404 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Fulton County in western Kentucky... Eastern Hickman County in western Kentucky... Southeastern Carlisle County in western Kentucky... Graves County in western Kentucky... * Until 430 PM CDT. * At 404 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Fulton, moving northeast at 70 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Sedalia around 415 PM CDT. Mayfield around 420 PM CDT. This includes Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 1 and 33. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceciliaky Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Grace said: I'm under a tornado warning now was just coming to check on you. hope all is well in Mayfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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